Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
I was trying to stay neutral last Friday but biased towards a stock market rebound, and the lower NFP forced stocks to open lower, but the short term profit taking and dip-buying pressure overcame the negative fundamentals, so we still had a positive day on stocks for the most part compared to the open. Right now, roughly, I think EU and GU are setting up for a decent swing trade short here just above 1.4650 and 1.6010 as I'm typing now. Check out the hourly chart and if it still looks good to you, feel free to try out a short with a stop loss maybe just above 1.4675 and 1.6035.
As far as the overall downtrend we've been calling is concerned, the lack of a clear impulsive pattern lower on several markets (gold, silver, EU) is somewhat concerning so far, but I'm still very willing to give these trades more lattitude to form those impulsive patterns lower as stocks did more definitively late last week. The odds are still well in favor of USD strength medium to long term. My patience is not without limits though, and if we don't get a surprisingly sharp decline this week (1.4350 or below on EU, and $15 and below on Silver) we may go into more of a neutral stance.
In news Friday, NFP came out worse than expected, but more importantly we got expected price action wise. The move on USD/JPY held up for an hour (I expected longer, but not too bad), and the initial moves on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were reversed hard within the first 5-15 minutes. Easy money. We went 4 for 4 in the trading room on 3 different pairs for low risk bits and pieces of it. In news Monday:
0428 UK Services PMI (54.5 expected) - This release should be good for about 40 pips in the first 3 minutes if the deviation is hit.
If it comes out at 55.5 or higher, GBP/USD should rally for 40 pips.
If it comes out at 53.5 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips.
1000 US ISM Non-Manufacturing - ISM numbers out of the US have gotten very poor reactions on currencies lately, so I'm skipping them until they prove more fruitful again.
2330 AU Interest Rate Decision (unchanged at 3.00% almost unanimously expected) - There is a slight buzz (and 1 economist) thinking the RBA may raise interest rates. If they do, it will be very bullish for the AUD
If they raise rates, AUD/USD should rally 50-100 pips.
If the do not raise rates, attention will focus on the statement, but AUD should have a downward bias after the release as those betting on a potential hike cover their longs.
I was trying to stay neutral last Friday but biased towards a stock market rebound, and the lower NFP forced stocks to open lower, but the short term profit taking and dip-buying pressure overcame the negative fundamentals, so we still had a positive day on stocks for the most part compared to the open. Right now, roughly, I think EU and GU are setting up for a decent swing trade short here just above 1.4650 and 1.6010 as I'm typing now. Check out the hourly chart and if it still looks good to you, feel free to try out a short with a stop loss maybe just above 1.4675 and 1.6035.
As far as the overall downtrend we've been calling is concerned, the lack of a clear impulsive pattern lower on several markets (gold, silver, EU) is somewhat concerning so far, but I'm still very willing to give these trades more lattitude to form those impulsive patterns lower as stocks did more definitively late last week. The odds are still well in favor of USD strength medium to long term. My patience is not without limits though, and if we don't get a surprisingly sharp decline this week (1.4350 or below on EU, and $15 and below on Silver) we may go into more of a neutral stance.
In news Friday, NFP came out worse than expected, but more importantly we got expected price action wise. The move on USD/JPY held up for an hour (I expected longer, but not too bad), and the initial moves on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were reversed hard within the first 5-15 minutes. Easy money. We went 4 for 4 in the trading room on 3 different pairs for low risk bits and pieces of it. In news Monday:
0428 UK Services PMI (54.5 expected) - This release should be good for about 40 pips in the first 3 minutes if the deviation is hit.
If it comes out at 55.5 or higher, GBP/USD should rally for 40 pips.
If it comes out at 53.5 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips.
1000 US ISM Non-Manufacturing - ISM numbers out of the US have gotten very poor reactions on currencies lately, so I'm skipping them until they prove more fruitful again.
2330 AU Interest Rate Decision (unchanged at 3.00% almost unanimously expected) - There is a slight buzz (and 1 economist) thinking the RBA may raise interest rates. If they do, it will be very bullish for the AUD
If they raise rates, AUD/USD should rally 50-100 pips.
If the do not raise rates, attention will focus on the statement, but AUD should have a downward bias after the release as those betting on a potential hike cover their longs.
Last edited:
