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Forex Trading Signal 12/04 - 12/05/07

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Felix Homogratus, Dec 4, 2007.

  1. Felix Homogratus

    Felix Homogratus Commander in Chief

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    This is Felix.

    If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon


    Let's first review what happened on Friday, Sunday and Monday.

    On Friday we had the Swiss CPI coming out, and it came out at 1.8 (annual number), and I told you if we saw 1.7 or higher, we would possibly see USD/CHF going down by around 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It did not quite happen that way as it moved only 35 pips in the first hour of the report. Nevertheless, I hope you made money on this.

    Then we had the Canadian GDP which did not hit my trigger so that was a no trade as it came out exactly as expected.

    On Sunday we had Australian Trade Balance coming out. I told you if it comes out at -2.8 B or more negative, it would be a possible sell on AUD/USD. We saw -3 B so it was supposed to go down by 30 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. It, however, went down by 12 pips, and then it retraced to the pre-release price where it stayed for a while. If you made just a few pips, or lost a few, that's OK - it was a quite doggy report. If you got a good entry, you should be at least break even.

    On Monday we had the UK Manufacturing PMI. I said it was worthy to observe but not necessarily to trade. However, this time it was a killer move. It came out much better than expected, and we saw GBP/USD moving by about 100 pips in the first 45 minutes of the report, and then it went even higher than that. If you were able to take advantage of that, congratulations. Next month we will prepare better for it.

    The ISM Manufacturing came out pretty close to expectations so that was a no trade.

    Australian Retail sales came out at 0.2%, and we also had a revision in the same direction. My trigger was 0.2% or below, and I was expecting AUD/USD to move down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It actually moved by 70 pips, it was truly a beautiful trade. I hope you took advantage of it and made some money. This move was pretty quick so if you did not make money, there will be other opportunities in the future.

    Let's now talk about Tuesday.

    1. Tuesday, December 04th, 2007 (5:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
    At 5:30 p.m. we will have Interest Statement coming out of Australia. It is expected they are going to keep the rate unchanged, and most likely there will be no comments so most likely nothing is going to happen here. If there are some comments towards rate hikes, AUD/USD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If there are comments towards future rate curs, AUD/USD may possibly lose 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. As I said, most likely nothing will happen.

    2. Tuesday, December 04th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
    Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian GDP. It is expected to read 1%. If it reads at 1.3% or higher, AUD/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading is 0.7% or less, I think AUD/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

    SUMMARY:
    * Report: Australian GDP
    * Buy on AUD/USD if the number will be 1.3% or higher
    * Sell on AUD/USD if the number will be 0.7% or lower
    * If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

    Let's now talk about Wednesday.

    3. Wednesday, December 05th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
    At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI. I think this indicator is worth watching and possibly trading. It is expected to come out at 52.7. If it reads at 55 or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if this indicator reads at 50.5 or below, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

    SUMMARY:
    * Report: UK Services PMI
    * Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 55.0 or higher
    * Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 50.5 or lower
    * If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

    4. Wednesday, December 05th, 2007 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
    Then at 8:15 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment. It is expected to read at 50,000 versus 106 K last month. If it reads at 0 or negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report simply because it would be a negative reading for the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, if we see a reading of 100 or above then we may see GBP/USD going down by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report.

    SUMMARY:
    * Report: ADP Non-Farm Employment
    * Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0 or negative
    * Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 100 or more
    * If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report

    5. Wednesday, December 05th, 2007 (3:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
    Then we will have New Zealand Interest Rate Statement coming out. It is expected they will keep the rate unchanged, and start cutting rates towards first quarter of 2008. If they drop their dovish tone, and talk about possibility to do more hikes, then NZD/USD may possibly gain 100 pips or more in the first 3 hours of the report. On the other hand, if they say need to cut the rates quicker than it was thought previously, NZD/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If there are no comments, or comments are the same or neutral, then it is a no trade here.

    That's all for this signal.

    I do strongly recommend you to go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education website where my partner Tim trades this indicators live so you can learn a lot how to trade these indicators, and of course trade with him on your own account by coping his entries and exits while you are learning. We do offer 21 days free trial so I strongly recommend you to go there and sign up, and learn everything you can at least within these 21 days.

    Thank you so much, and good luck with your trades.

    To Our Success!
    -Felix Homogratus
     
    #1 Felix Homogratus, Dec 4, 2007
    Lasted edited by : Aug 15, 2015
  2. Matsuto

    Matsuto Private

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    thank you very much for all those very nice informations!!!
     
  3. olavip23

    olavip23 Recruit

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    hello :]

    Firstly, I just want to tell HELLO! to everybody, I am sure I will have nice time here :)
    Now I want to ask one (probably stupid) question:

    Felix wrote:
    SUMMARY:
    * Report: Australian GDP
    * Buy on AUD/USD if the number will be 1.3% or higher
    * Sell on AUD/USD if the number will be 0.7% or lower
    * If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

    or

    SUMMARY:
    * Report: UK Services PMI
    * Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 55.0 or higher
    * Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 50.5 or lower
    * If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

    What are these percentages and numbers (1.3% or 55.0), where will I find them?
    sorry and thanks in advance :)
     
  4. BubbleOz

    BubbleOz Recruit

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    Financial publications

    Hi,
    you will find these numbers in the financial pages - or better still in the Forexbastards economic calendar - click on the link on the top of the page, and you will see the numbers there.

    Cheers,
    Nik
     

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