1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Forex Trading Signal 9-16-2009

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Sep 16, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2007
    Messages:
    511
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hey folks,

    Well, the EUR/USD rally so far has pretty much fulfilled our forecast for a EUR/USD rise near 1.4700, (highs in the 1.4680's so far), but based on my interpretation of the near term wave structure, it's likely the Euro still has some more upside left maybe as high as 1.4800. If you look at an hourly chart, we've seen 3 clear waves up from the 1.4515 low early this week, and we'll most likely need to see more of a mature 5 wave structure in place before the top is in place. For that to happen cleanly, we'd see a bit more upside near term tonight (so wave 3 is bigger than wave 1... not a must but that is usually the case), followed by a period of retracement or triangle consolidation (wave 4), and then a final push to ultimate highs (wave 5 of 5). Conversely, a break below 1.4515 at this point would be the first key sign that a lasting top may already be in place.

    Last night we also had a very big tape bomb from the Bank of England's Governor King. In testimony he basically said they're considering cutting interest rates which was a big surprise to the market and has lead to considerable GBP weakness. I anticipate further gains in EUR/GBP of several hundred pips over the coming weeks and months as the GBP weakens. It also may be a good chance to get in early on the big USD turn by getting in short GBP/USD while we wait on EUR/USD. I think going long EUR/GBP (currently around 0.8910) and/or short GBP/USD (currently around 1.6460) make good sense for position trades, but I'm probably going to wait a bit on the GBP/USD short and wait until I enter EUR/USD sometime in the next week or so.

    Like the Euro, Gold probably still has some more push left in it, so I'm holding out to take final profits on the long around 1035 and then poke around at the idea of a new short, but I'll probably feel more comfortable shorting Silver at that point.

    Stocks, like the Euro, still seem to have some upwards push left as well, although I took half profits on my long from 1029 around 1050 as planned. I don't really expect stocks to rally past 1100, so if you can afford to give it some room, you could try to get short early because the downside will end up being quite dramatic. I'm personally waiting to time the top a bit more precisely though and I'll let you guys know when I pull the trigger short.

    In economic news Tuesday, UK CPI came out barely hitting our buy triggers, but the BoE testimony afterwards derailed the pullback buy (which I think would have worked fine) and kept GU under selling pressure. The German ZEW numbers came out slightly bad (not hitting our triggers), and buying the dip on the EUR/USD would have worked well if you were patient with it, and if you weren't, at least it didn't bolt into sharp losses. All the US data came out high which led to the typical USD/JPY upside of about 40 pips, but it peaked out after about 20 minutes when stocks failed to maintain the rally in the premarket. In news Wednesday:

    0430 UK Claimant Count Change and ILO Unemployment Rate - Unfortunately, I don't think these numbers are particularly "news tradable." What I mean is that a certain level of surprise on the number does not seem to lead to a predictable outcome. Because of this, I can't offer triggers on these. However, these numbers will get some focus and create some good volatility for you technical traders out there, so feel free to take advantage.

    0830 US Core CPI m/m (0.1% expected) - If the deviation is only 0.1% from expectations, this number could still work if the y/y Core, and both headline numbers also come out in the same direction. Otherwise, we'll probably need 0.2% away from expectations to more reliably push USD/JPY.
    If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips.

    On a side note, I'm sorry I haven't been doing video signals the past week or two. I've developed an issue with my webspace right now getting them hosted properly, and am using that as an opportunity to give the process an overhaul and look to host them more professionally. In another couple weeks I'll have new and improved video signals for you folks on a regular basis. Until then, hopefully the text signals will suffice. Let me know if you have any suggestions for the videos as well.

    TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
    Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.

    To our success,
    Sir Pipsalot
     
    #1 Sir Pipsalot, Sep 16, 2009
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2009
  2. manujain_1574

    manujain_1574 Recruit

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2009
    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    0
    Dear Sir,

    Thanks for reverting but I was looking for more comprehensive reply from your side ... Like how would those call would be given ... will it posted on some website or on some messenger and at what time ... as we are in India there is a big time gap

    and how much profit (on an average we can expect from a trade)

    what would be typically the tenor of an average trade ( as I am a short term trader, this part is very essential for me)

    Kindly revert.
    you can mail me at manujain1574@gmail.com
    Thanks and Regards,
    Abhishek
     
  3. Mark Harding

    Mark Harding Corporal

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2007
    Messages:
    75
    Likes Received:
    0
    Thanks Sir Pipsalot...
     
  4. mechtech63

    mechtech63 Corporal

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2009
    Messages:
    123
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ceiling now closer to 1.4800?

    Based on your previous advice to go short as close to 1.4700 as possible, I am already in. I guess you meant that I was to also make sure it was topping off...I guess I assumed you meant that 1.4700 was the top. I do hope that there is a dip...1.4800 would have me over-margined. I have calculated margin with 1.4700 in mind. :confused:
     
  5. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2007
    Messages:
    511
    Likes Received:
    0
    I would suggest taking some profits here in the mid 1.4600's since we're getting that short term pullback/consolidation off the 1.4715 resistance, but we will likely have a final thrust to new highs somewhere between late today and Friday. It is possible that we topped out at 1.4715, but it looks more like wave 3 of 5 to me.
     
  6. jbarsanti

    jbarsanti Recruit

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2009
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    Signals

    Sir Pipsalot,

    I appreciate your commentary. My major gripe is that it takes so many steps and time to get to them. I personally liked the old email text version, Much more efficient and easier to save and refer back to.

    Jeff
     
  7. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2007
    Messages:
    511
    Likes Received:
    0
    bookmark?

    Maybe just set a bookmark to the Current Forex Trading Signals folder instead of clicking through the email link. Also, when I get the new video stuff put together, I think it will become a lot more convenient as well.
     
  8. mechtech63

    mechtech63 Corporal

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2009
    Messages:
    123
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ceiling now closer to 1.4800?

    Based on your previous advice to go short as close to 1.4700 as possible, I am already in. I guess you meant that I was to also make sure it was topping off...I guess I assumed you meant that 1.4700 was the top. I do hope that there is a dip...1.4800 would have me over-margined. I have calculated margin with 1.4700 in mind. :confused:
     
  9. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2007
    Messages:
    511
    Likes Received:
    0
    It looks like you reposted the same thing from this morning. I already replied to you not long after you originally posted. Days and weeks before now I envisioned the EUR/USD potentially topping out near here and that might be something to watch for. Now that we're here, it seems clear to me that there's still some upwards action left to go before the top. It's not like I have a complete crystal ball and know exactly where something will top out far in advance.

    I think a short near 1.4700 would have been appropriate if we had rallied sharply to there many days ago when I was talking about that level very specifically, but since the ascent has been gradual and the waveform not yet complete, I'm holding off and even risking buying here and there to take advantage of the shorter term upside.

    Don't work too hard to get in early on this one as it could easily fool you. Also, if you're risking margin calls on any one trade, you're risking way too much. Even if you win several, it just takes one loser to kill you and in forex, the next tough loser is always closer than you think.
     

Share This Page