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Dear clients,

FreshForex is celebrating its 19th birthday!

So we're having a challenge with 119 prizes totaling $119,000. The grand prize is $30,000!

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Dear clients,

The US bond market is marking the occasion: the era of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis is over. What will follow is still unclear.

That market view has become clearer in recent days amid a surge in 10-year Treasury yields to a 16-year high.

According to investors and the New York Fed's regularly updated yield-based model, the betting behind the move is that the disinflationary processes that the Federal Reserve has fought with easy-money policies since the financial crisis have tapered off.

Instead, investors believe investors have concluded that the U.S. economy is probably now in what one regional Fed chairman described as a "high-pressure equilibrium" characterised by inflation above the Fed's 2% target, low unemployment and positive growth.

This important shift in the outlook for rates has profound implications for policymakers, businesses, and the public. The shift to higher and more protracted rates could be painful and manifest itself in failed business models, unaffordable homes and cars. It could also force the Fed to keep raising rates until another failure occurs, as the three regional US banks did in March.

The Fed's market model for decomposing the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides additional insight into investors' thinking.

In recent days, one component of yields — a measure of the reward investors demand for lending money for the long term — turned positive for the first time since June 2021, according to the ACM model.

The rise in the short-term rate also reflects confidence that structural shifts - from de-globalisation to declining productivity and an aging population - have raised the elusive theoretical interest rate at which growth neither accelerates nor slows and full employment exists at stable prices. It is called the neutral rate, or r-star.

While the market seems confident that the era of zero interest rates is over, it is much less confident about the real prospects for the economy.

The neutral rate, for example, determines whether the Fed Funds rate will slow or stimulate the economy, but no one really knows what the rate is really like until something breaks. Estimates vary widely.

The era of uncertainty has also arrived among monetary policymakers. A San Francisco Fed survey in August, which developed an index to gauge the level of disagreement among policymakers about their economic forecasts, showed that by June it had risen to a level higher than the pre-pandemic average.

Dear clients,

According to Goldman Sachs strategists, strong earnings results to be released soon could reverse the decline in technology and growth stocks, which have been hurt by rising Treasury yields and, according to one report, are trading at their lowest levels in six years.

The so-called "Magnificent Seven" — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms — have fallen 7% over the past couple of months, compared with a 3% decline for the S&P 500 index as a whole, as Treasury yields jumped more than 60 basis points to 16-year highs.

Those declines have caused forward price-to-earnings ratios for companies to fall 20% over the past two months, leaving them trading at the largest discount to the market based on long-term growth since January 2017, Goldman Sachs said in a note on 1 October. At the same time, group sales growth is expected to be 11% in the third quarter, compared with 1% for the S&P 500 index, the company said.

Goldman strategists said the "megacaps" have collectively beaten consensus forecasts for sales growth 81% of the time and exceeded earnings expectations in two-thirds of the seasons since the fourth quarter of 2016.

"The divergence between lowering estimates and improving fundamentals presents new opportunities for investors," they wrote.

The S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 5% over the past 10 trading days, but is up just over 11% since the start of the year.


Dear clients,

Growing fears among bond investors about US government spending and the ballooning budget deficit are fuelling a sharp sell-off that has seen Treasury bond prices fall to 17-year lows.

So-called "bond vigilantes" — investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds and driving up yields — were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns about US federal spending drove Treasury bond yields as high as 8%.

The expectation of a sharp increase in the US government budget deficit and the issuance of debt to cover those costs alarmed investors and brought the term back into Wall Street's everyday lexicon.

Fitch Ratings recently downgraded the country's credit rating, predicting that the US budget deficit will rise to 6.3% of gross domestic product this year from 3.7% in 2022 due to higher debt service costs, new spending initiatives and lower federal revenues.

While the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook has been a major catalyst for yields and price impact, market participants attribute part of the decline in longer maturity bond yields to investor concerns about rising costs.

Yields on 30-year US Treasuries, which change inversely with prices, jumped to 5% on Wednesday for the first time since 2007 in a broad global bond sell-off before stabilising. Budget concerns have been mounting since the summer, when the Treasury announced plans to increase debt issuance.

Strategist Ed Yardeni, who introduced bond vigilantes in the early 1980s, has commented:

"Bond vigilantes are defying (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen's policy by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to trigger a debt crisis," he wrote in a Financial Times article Wednesday. "In this scenario, rising yields crowd out the private sector and trigger a credit crunch and recession."

Determined investors in the UK bonds last year helped bring about a policy reversal after a tax cut plan caused borrowing costs to soar, showing that bond vigilantes are still a force to be reckoned with.

However, not all investors believe that the "vigilantes" will be able to influence the $25 trillion Treasury market.

Experts believe the key driver of the sell-off is rate fears, not the supply of Treasuries. They believe some fund managers are waiting for yields to peak before acting. The recent sell-off has brought yields back to pre-financial crisis norms, which has increased the attractiveness of bonds in general and boosted investor returns.

Dear clients,

On October 6, we are expecting the publication of data on Nonfarm Payroll, a measure of U.S. manufacturing employment. The report significantly affects the movement of the US dollar and related instruments.

What indicators are expected this time, let's find out from our expert:

ISM's leading employment indicators point to the release of positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the US dollar growth, as in this case the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at its November 1 meeting. On Friday consider selling GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD, #NQ100.

Support your account and double your funds with 101% bonus


Dear clients,

The lull in bond sales lasted until Friday, but is unlikely to persist until the end of the day as investors await US employment data, which could bolster the case for keeping interest rates high for some time.

Oil's transition from a sharp rise to a fall also provided a respite, with Brent crude futures at $84.50 a barrel, about $13, or 13.5%, cheaper than last week's 11-month high.

MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares rose 0.9%. Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) index was unchanged and currency markets were flat, although the dollar began a record 12th week of gains due to the bond slump.

The ten-year US Treasury yield held mercifully at 4.72% during the Asian session, but it climbed 55 basis points in the course of the five-week sell-off, weighing on bond markets and risk appetite globally.

However, no one was betting big until the release of US non-farm payrolls data at 12:30 GMT.

Another batch of bond sell-offs is likely to see the dollar continue its week-long winning streak, which is already the longest in history against the euro. The dollar index has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, repeating a streak that lasted from July to October 2014.

The rise has taken the euro at $1.0542 near an 11-month low and sterling near a seven-month trough. The dollar index was unchanged at 106.4 on Friday.

Surprisingly, only the beleaguered yen showed significant struggle as a sudden surge in the Japanese currency in London on Tuesday afternoon sparked speculation of government intervention.

Japanese money market data did not reveal any anomalies that could accompany intervention. However, the movement was notable enough to make traders wary.

The yen exchange rate was last seen remaining stable at 148.5 per dollar. Gold also remained steady at $1,822 an ounce after nine days of losses caused by rising global bond yields.

Dear clients,

Interest rates are one of the biggest driver of price across the markets, with currency being no exception. This time, we'll continue the talk on fluctuations in interest rates.

Join us on October 11 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.


Dear clients,

While markets have largely regained their composure following events in the Middle East, some dovish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials helped calm investors' nerves ahead of Tuesday's trading session.

On Monday, senior Fed officials suggested that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds could replace official monetary policy moves in terms of market impact, reinforcing expectations that the U.S. central bank may not need to raise rates further.

European stocks came under pressure on Monday amid news of conflict in the Middle East, but eurozone blue-chip futures STOXX 50 were back on the upside in Asia in the morning.

At the same time, 10-year US Treasuries posted their sharpest rise in more than a month at the opening of trading in Tokyo on Tuesday, fuelled by the Fed's "soft" remarks and demand for safe-haven assets.

The market will have more than enough to hear the views of Fed officials, who will take part in various events on Tuesday, and on Wednesday the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting will be released. All attention will then turn to Thursday's US consumer price index data.

At the same time, the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank will start in Morocco, where the world's leading politicians will speak.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at Tuesday's meeting after economic data the previous day heightened fears of a possible recession in Germany, the eurozone's largest economy.

In Asia, more bad news came from China, with Country Garden, the largest private property developer, saying it will not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations on time or within the relevant grace periods.


Dear clients,

Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates have reaffirmed their commitment to "collective and individual voluntary adjustments" to oil production, Saudi Arabia's state news agency reported on Sunday.

The six countries' oil ministers met in Riyadh on Sunday on the sidelines of the UN's MENA climate week.

"In addition, the ministers reaffirmed the willingness of the countries participating in the Declaration of Co-operation to take additional measures at any time as part of their ongoing efforts to support market stability, building on the strong cohesion of OPEC+," Saudi state news agency SPA said in a report.

OPEC+ agreed in June to extend voluntary oil production cuts, first introduced in April, until the end of 2024. Additional voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have been extended until the end of 2023 and are subject to monthly reviews.

Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ministers on Wednesday made no changes to the group's oil production policy after Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed they would maintain voluntary supply cuts to support the market.


Dear clients,

FreshForex is constantly working to make your trading as comfortable and efficient as possible. Thus, starting October 9, swaps on Brent and WTI oil contracts are dropped by 70%, the costs are reduced to 110 USD per lot.

For example, for transferring an open position to the next day the sale of 1 lot on the #Brent contract — swap will be 40 USD against 150 USD before the changes.

But that's not all, among all of our oil-trading clients, a raffle with a prize of 100 barrels* of Brent oil will be held!

More deals — more chances to win!

Promotion terms and conditions:

1. The campaign period is from October 9 to October 31;

2. All Clients who open a new transaction on a real account for #BRENT and (or) #WTI instruments during the period of the raffle will become participants of the raffle. The more trades, the more chances to win;

3. The prize fund - 100 barrels of Brent oil will be distributed among 5 randomly selected winners, each of whom will receive 20 barrels in dollar equivalent (at the Bid quote of the #BRENT instrument at the close of October 31);

4. The results of the draw will be published on November 1 in the company news;

5. The prizes will be credited within 5 working days after the results are announced in the "Balance" column, respectively fully available for trading and withdrawal.

Dear clients,

Barely have the markets began to get used to the idea of a dovish stance from the Fed, as the unpleasant data on US producer inflation threatens to rain on parade, making for a nervous wait of the consumer price data to be released later today.

For now, the unchanged and — for equity investors — very welcome statement from Fed officials that caution should be exercised before further rate hikes drowns out any concerns about the data.

Asia-Pacific stocks picked up the baton from Wall Street, with Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both rising more than 1%.

But how quickly markets reversed earlier in the week shows how quickly they can pull back. Despite the dovish notes, the Fed's underlying message remains that rates will rise as much as necessary to contain inflation.

While the prospect of US bond yields returning to 16-year highs above 5% is certainly a risk, there is a sense that the ceiling could be lower, while safe-haven assets are currently in demand amid geopolitical risks.

It's a big day for UK data too, with GDP and industrial production data coming out first.

At its meeting last month, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged for the first time since the start of the interest rate tightening cycle in December 2021, but traders are putting the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the first quarter of next year at stake.


Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help solve one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates.

What to expect this month, let's learn from our expert:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported an increase in inflation expectations of the population, which is favourable for the US dollar, as the Fed may then raise interest rates at its next meeting in November. On Thursday consider selling GBPUSD, #NQ100 and buying USDZAR, USDTRY.

Let's celebrate our birthday together with FreshForex Birthday Challenge. Trade and win!


Dear clients,

The UK competition authority on Friday approved Microsoft's acquisition of "Call of Duty" game maker Activision Blizzard after earlier concerns were allayed by a restructuring of the deal.

Activision agreed to sell its streaming rights to Ubisoft Entertainment in August, and last month Microsoft proposed measures to ensure compliance with the terms of the deal, allowing the regulator to allay some residual concerns.

The approval will allow Microsoft to complete the deal by 18 October, after it extended the deadline by three months in July to get the UK clearance.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said Microsoft's concession on streaming was a "game changer" and added that it was the only competition organisation in the world to achieve such a result.

"The new deal will not allow Microsoft to block competition in cloud gaming as this market evolves, keeping prices and services competitive for UK cloud gaming customers," it said in a statement.

Microsoft announced the biggest deal in gaming industry history in early 2022, but in April the $69bn acquisition was blocked by the CMA, concerned that the US computer giant would gain too much control over the nascent cloud gaming market.

CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell said: "We made it clear to Microsoft that the deal would be blocked unless they addressed all of our concerns and we stand by our judgement." She said the regulator, which has been given greater powers following the UK's exit from the European Union, makes decisions "without political influence" and will not be "subject to lobbying by corporations".

Microsoft expressed "gratitude for the CMA's careful consideration and judgement".

"We have now cleared the final hurdle to finalise a deal that we believe will benefit players and the gaming industry worldwide," said vice president and president Brad Smith.

Dear clients,

Cryptocurrencies continued to rise in Asian trading on Tuesday, with bitcoin rising to nearly an 18-month high amid speculation about the imminent creation of an exchange-traded bitcoin fund.

The bitcoin exchange rate rose more than 6% to $35,198, its highest since May 2022. It rose 10% on Monday, its best performance in almost a year, and doubled its price in 2023.

Cryptocurrency-related stocks such as Coinbase Global (COIN.O) rose in over-the-counter trading.

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds bitcoin on behalf of fund investors is seen as a demand driver, as it will allow those who don't want to trade in cryptocurrency markets to purchase bitcoin through the stock market.

Investment giant BlackRock is among several companies that have applied to set up bitcoin funds in the US, and speculation over their possible approval has been fuelled by the listing of BlackRock's iShares ETF on the DTCC clearing house website.

Expectations also rose after it was revealed this month that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will not appeal a court ruling that improperly rejected an ETF application from Grayscale Investments.

When and why the iShares ETF was added to the DTCC list was not specified. Last week, BlackRock denied an erroneous report that its ETF had been approved, and sources close to the SEC confirmed that the application was still under review.


Dear clients,

Poor lending data and weak purchasing managers' surveys confirmed what traders had already guessed: The rate hike cycle in Europe is over.

Markets believe there is little chance of a rate hike and see a recession on the horizon.

Absent surprises, trading is likely to hinge on earnings - Unilever (ULVR.L), Mercedes (MBGn.DE) and Amazon (AMZN.O) report on Thursday - and the behaviour of yields and the yen.

Google's disappointing results for its cloud division led to the sharpest drop in Alphabet shares since March 2020 on Wednesday, and they fell further in after-market trading in Asian hours.

The yen has surpassed the 150 per dollar mark and is now trading at its lowest level since Japanese authorities intervened last October to push the market higher.

On Wednesday, 10-year Treasury bond yields rallied towards 5% after a rise in US home sales gave further cause for concern about continued high interest rates. Nasdaq futures fell 1%.


Interest rate brakes are fuelling optimism in markets.A sharp pullback in long-term US Treasury rates gave investors in the Asia-Pacific region a chance to exhale, with bond yields falling from decade highs in Tokyo and Sydney.

Stocks rebounded despite another sharp fall in Wall Street overnight, giving European investors cause for optimism. Japan's Nikkei index jumped 1.5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was not far behind.

Undoubtedly, the US dollar is still in the lead, but the yen at least retreated from a one-year low and the euro recovered after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced a pause in the rate hike cycle, saying that "inaction is also action".

Some market recovery on Friday would be a good respite before a possible volatile marathon next week, when the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will make policy decisions on consecutive days.

The ECB has raised expectations that policy tightening in the US and UK has come to an end, making the Japan meeting potentially the most interesting. Perhaps for a central bank prone to surprises, the BOJ announcement will come on Halloween, with a weakening yen and rising yields fuelling speculation of another hawkish policy shift.


Dear clients,

We're thrilled to announce a super convenient way to make deposits in South Africa.

Find a new deposit methods in your Personal Area, namely Kuchinga Voucher, Ozow and Snapscan.

Here's the rundown:

No deposit fees
Currency: ZAR (South African Rand)
Minimum deposit amount: 200 ZAR
Maximum deposit amount: 37,900 ZAR
Choose from three options: Kuchinga Voucher, Ozow, Snapscan
Don't miss out on this stress-free way to top up your account in South Africa.

Thanks for making us your go-to for all things trading!

Dear clients,

Is it possible to hedge against volatility and increase the trading balance at the same time? Yes, with the deposit bonus, now 202%.

For every deposit of $202 or more, your account will be credited with a 202% deposit bonus.

With this bonus, not only will you double your deposit, but you'll also create a protective cushion for your account in case of a loss.

And don't delay, the offer is available until the 14th of November!


Dear clients,

Do you want to get profit right from the doorstep? Deposit with any cryptocurrency and get up to 15% of the amount in real funds.

And hurry up, the offer is valid until the 14th of November!

Full Terms:

1. The promotion period is from November 1 to November 14, 2023.
2. The amount of the bonus when depositing with cryptocurrency is:
2.1. 5% up to 500 USD / 500 EUR in the currency of the trading account;
2.2. 10% from 500 USD / 500 EUR in the currency of the trading account;
2.3. 15% from 1 000 USD / 1 000 EUR in the currency of the trading account.
3. The bonus is credited to the deposited trading account to the "Balance" field and can be used without limitations but according to the full terms of the promotion. Maximum bonus amount is 500 USD / 500 EUR / 10 MBT in the trading account currency.
4. The Company is reserves the right to:
4.1. Deduct bonus funds if the Client decides to withdraw over 30% of the deposited amount within 60 days after the deposit;
4.2. To refuse to credit the bonus, limit its size for the Client, and (or) deduct bonus funds at its discretion at any time;
4.3. Change the terms or the period of the promotion.
5. By recieving the Bonus, the Client confirms their compliance with the terms of promotion.

Dear clients,

October is known for its volatility and this month - from oil rallies to bitcoin phoenix - was no exception.

Let's see how the month went for our clients:

The most profitable instruments were currency pair Dollar\Israeli Shekel (USDILS), Dollar\Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Gold\Australian Dollar (XAUAUD) on Buy deals; oil West Texas Intermediate (#WTI) and Brent (#BRENT) on Sell deals.

What did FreshForex traders earn on?

The Heatmap will tell more about these and other instruments.

The month was quite competitive:

FreshForex celebrated its 19th anniversary with the FreshForex Birthday Challenge, where traders competed for places in the ranking;
A large prize pool of 100 barrels of Brent was raffled off among oil enthusiasts.

We're barging into November with two promotions — +15% to cryptocurrency deposit and a 202% support bonus. It's up for two weeks, so be quick and have a great November!


Dear clients,

November is known for its festival of sales, but we decided to throw a party for those who want to earn money instead:

Till November 14, you can make a deposit with cryptocurrency and get up to 15% bonus on your account, as well as double your deposit with 202% bonus.

Profit while others spend!

Dear clients,

Great news, stocks are now available for even more currency accounts:

Currencies for MT4 and MT5: South African Rand (ZAR), Nigerian Naira (NGN), Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), Tanzanian Shilling (TZS), Kazakhstani Tenge (KZT).
Cryptocurrencies for MT5: MilliBitcoin (MBT), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA).
Cryptocurrency for MT4: MilliBitcoin (MBT).

Current promotions:

101% drawdown bonus will double your trading budget when things go wrong.
A 300% deposit bonus will give you up to $5000 extra funding to secure margins.
Get a cashback in real money up to $20 per lot weekly.
With stop-out insurance (for MT4 accounts) you'll get 50% back in case of losses!

No need to lose money on conversion, open an account in a currency that suits you and use the functionality to the maximum.

Customize your trading - your choice, your profit!


Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help solve one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates.

What to expect this month, let's learn from our expert:

The University of Michigan reported an increase in inflation expectations of the population, which does not allow us to count on a rapid decline in inflation. This situation is positive for the dollar, as the US Federal Reserve will think about raising interest rates at the December meeting. On Tuesday it is preferable to open Sell GBPUSD, #NQ100, XAUUSD positions.

Any economic events can be monitored directly with the MT5 terminal. Date and time, priority, forecasts and actual values: all the necessary data in one place and in front of your eyes!


Dear clients,

Natural gas is volatile in a way more than one, as winter is approaching. Meanwhile, gold and silver, well, they never truly left. This time, we'll be looking at these 3 instruments, their positions and movements.

Join us on November 15 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.