FX market is not balanced before the end of the day

[Lei]

October 7th whole day: Very limited range movement before NFP. Though equities rise up, due to ECB announced new purchase plan after PEPP, and US republicans said they will let demos extend debt ceilings in normal procedure. Watch out that US Bond Yields back to the highest level, since July.

 

[Lei]

October 8th early session end: One hour ahead of NFP. The market keeps quiet. A moment quiet before the storm comes.

 

[Lei]

October 8th end of the day: It's probably the dullest NFP day in my memory. Non-farm payrolls miss the mark. Maybe it's because next Monday is Columbus Day in the US and Thanksgiving in Canada.

CoT report:
USD longs 26.4(+1.4K) are at the most extreme since June 2019.
EUR -22.4K(-23.2K); GBP -20K(-21.6K); CAD -23.3K(-5.5K); AUD -89.9K (-2.7K) Others keep the similar level as last week.

 

[Lei]

October 11th, early session: Commodity currencies keep ahead. USD EUR JPY lag.

 

[Lei]

October 11th, late session: AUD/JPY is the star of today. USD/JPY also rises to a new high. The market back to normal tomorrow. I will keep an eye on US Dollar and Commodity Currencies, which one would be stronger.

 

[Lei]

October 12th, early session: yawning.....

 

[Lei]

October 12th whole day end: 'It was a messy set of moves that never quite established a theme.'
Watch out above US10Y bond yields, in 4h Chart, which falls back to neckline, if further falling, it could cause trouble for USD strength.

 

[Lei]

October 13th before N.A. session: Gold shines ahead of US inflation data. It was a quiet session for the most part. The overall risk mood is looking slightly better as compared to the tepid tones earlier with US futures mildly higher now but all eyes will be on US inflation data and the FOMC minutes release later in the day to provide firmer direction.

 

[Lei]

October 13th whole day end: US CPI keeps high, DXY rose up after CPI 25 pips in 30 minutes, the main show following totally turned the direction. US Bond Yields falling weaken DXY, while equities consolidated up, makes FX market risk preferring till the end of the day.

 

[Lei]

October 14th mid European session: US Dollar keeps soft. Yields stay at the low of the week. Commodity currencies and equity rise.