FX market is not balanced before the end of the day

[Lei]

2021.11.17 Wed, late session: It was a surprise, JPY moves strongly, commodity currencies fully drop after Canada CPI just hit expectation. US equities mixed. Oil drop weaken CAD. GBP stay strong all day.

 

[Lei]

2021.11.18 close to Day-End: US equities V turn after news pushing to negative of the day. FX market EUR had a full retracement after a long time weak. JPY, USD stay weak of the day, commodity currencies differentiated, NZD is the best of the three, next Wednesday is RBNZ rate decision, consensus revised to 0.75%, which means the expectation of 0.25% hiking.

 

[Lei]

2021.11.22 Mon, close to day-end: Dollar gain, after US Presi. Biden nominated Powell as next Fed Chair. JPY is the weakest and ahead to break high. Equities mixed, Gold fall due to the market see Powell is mid-hawkish representative of Fed. Bond Yields rise but did not break the high of last week.

 

[Lei]

2021.11.24 early session: RBNZ 25bp cash rate hike as expected, NZDUSD falls. Dollar keeps in a comfortable spot so far and is ready to move higher.

 

[Lei]

2021.11.24 Wednesday later N.A. session: Risk Aversion moods extended in the later session today. US Yield Curve inverted not get any better. After FOMC minutes, the movement stalls since the Fed discussion tends to be quicker taper. Tomorrow starts the US holiday.

 

[Lei]

2021.11.26 Friday, early session: Covid variant strikes fear into the market. Bonds Yields fully dropdown. Oil down $5.27 (6.76%), European equities -3~4% fall. FX Risk trades are hit the hardest.

 

[Lei]

2021.11.26 Friday, day end: Covid variant strikes fear extended.

 

[Lei]

2021.12.02 Thursday, NFP outlook:
Some leading indicators of Nov show that bearish bias ahead of NFP, but NY and Philadelphia manufacturing Indices are bullish.

So, there are good reasons to bet NFP tomorrow would be similar level as expected. Which suggest a positive of the labour market, with the unemployment rate keep moving lower.

But, a better manufacturing or economic growth would suggest the US dollar keep strong? It might be a question to consider.

 

[Lei]

2021.12.09 Mid-N.A. Session: FX market mixed, USD bounces, GBP bought the 'Fact'. US equities hold the gains. Prepare tomorrow's US CPI at 1:30 pm LDN time.

 

[Lei]

2021.12.14 End of the day: GBP and USD stay strong, tomorrow Fed FOMC rate decision and dot plot. USD, could keep its rally.