Gold Gold Daily Video, March 28, 2023

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Gold is coiling around 1950$ area. Here we have to options. First is - to make bet on potential upside butterfly, or, second - wait some progress on daily chart and touching of 1925-1933 support area:

 

[Tchurik]

Hi sive, hi everyone,
I'd like to post here a trading plan on the NatGas with a possible DRPO on the weekly chart.
We are on a big zone on the Monthly timeframe and on the OP (100% extension) target of the previous downward ABCD pattern. I bet on the upside reversal

I will take half position now with a very small risk and a huge ratio for this trade, the rest of the position will be taken above the weekly 3x3

Good luck to all, and thanks Sive for your analysis, Gold is GREAT!!!

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi sive, hi everyone,
I'd like to post here a trading plan on the NatGas with a possible DRPO on the weekly chart.
We are on a big zone on the Monthly timeframe and on the OP (100% extension) target of the previous downward ABCD pattern. I bet on the upside reversal

Great stuff, Tchurik. I haven't traded NG for a long time already... But I remember that it is very cunning market, strongly depends of different seasonal stuff, storages dynamic, weather etc.. Sometimes, action there is absolutely unexpected. Interesting to see what will happen, keep us informed.

In early April, another cold snap will overtake most of Europe - low temperatures will spread from north to south across the continent.Now gas storages in the region are about 56% full , which is much higher than the average at the end of the heating season. Maxar predicts that over the next 6-10 days the continent will experience around 11°C, which is the level at which houses need to be heated.

BTW, it is some cold comes to EU, maybe your DRPO will work...

 

[Tradeitanyway]

so if gold is bullish , and a break above 2010 should happen , the only bullish scenario is this , we are currently trading in EW triangle , we still have to test wave D triangle then have rejection forming wave E that will break 2010 target , note , wave E does not have to retest lower triangle border , traders may think that they will short @ 1990 close at 1950+/- at we retest lower trend line, usually, wave E might retrace to half or mid half of triangle then break out , so be careful with your risk
Targets of breakout should be 1.618 of eave 4 that you Sive have pointed out previously as wave 4 red
and it is a good level to short @ because it is wave i blue circle down length added to the breakout of 1.272 target , we might exceed higher 10 30 $ as market usually makes = wave of broken triangle

 

[Tradeitanyway]

A more bullish scenario is this , where wave 3 iii blue = wave 5 blue circle , with extension from wave ii blue circle to wave iv circle lowest level will be 100% target at 2133 2150 , these are first targets, we can extend higher to 1.272 % target at 2186 1.272 target , in this case same extension targets but wave 3 red ( orange pointed out ) = wave 5 red orange pointed out on chart
now why I am considering these bullish scenarios, I am taking a look at XAUEUR / XAUAUD / XAUCAD / XAUGBP / XAUXXX / meaning all gold v.s foreign currencies are breaking highs , so we should take it into consideration. However, that's something new to market which is usually when EUR GBP AUD CAD are strong , XAUXXX trades opposite , but recently, I am noticing that gold is trading in + direction with valued currency , and that has one justification which is central banks like BOE BOC RBA etc.. are purchasing gold with their currency, also demand from investors in these countries is increasing .. I hope this makes sense

 

[Tradeitanyway]

Hi sive, hi everyone,
I'd like to post here a trading plan on the NatGas with a possible DRPO on the weekly chart.
We are on a big zone on the Monthly timeframe and on the OP (100% extension) target of the previous downward ABCD pattern. I bet on the upside reversal
View attachment 82950

I will take half position now with a very small risk and a huge ratio for this trade, the rest of the position will be taken above the weekly 3x3
View attachment 82951
Good luck to all, and thanks Sive for your analysis, Gold is GREAT!!!

 

[Tradeitanyway]

support should be at 1.800 to 1.100
it is still early but I like to achieve these targets , form wave c as ending diagonal , I think reaction upon achieving target will not be that massive like the previous superb rally to 10.00
Until Russian Ukrainian war is resolved or tension between USA and Russia has eased , Gas will remain at low levels , this is my opinion fundamentally , keeping low gas levels will make Russia suffer more, and EU already has inflation crisis, in GAS makes a rally again , inflation will peak and hurt the economy in a negative way, but that's my opinion , I do not trade with Media , I just try to know facts as they are

 

[Tradeitanyway]

support should be at 1.800 to 1.100
it is still early but I like to achieve these targets , form wave c as ending diagonal , I think reaction upon achieving target will not be that massive like the previous superb rally to 10.00
Until Russian Ukrainian war is resolved or tension between USA and Russia has eased , Gas will remain at low levels , this is my opinion fundamentally , keeping low gas levels will make Russia suffer more, and EU already has inflation crisis, in GAS makes a rally again , inflation will peak and hurt the economy in a negative way, but that's my opinion , I do not trade with Media , I just try to know facts as they are

 

[Tradeitanyway]

this is a bearish scenario , in this case gold should retest 1984 1990 with double top then collapse, confirmation a break below 1943 or a daily bearish engulfing is a hint for this scenario , a daily close below 1950 is short term negative , will see how patterns are developing and weekly close to take decision. Price action dictates elliotwaves not the opposite. That's how i make my counts. Happy hunting

 

[Tchurik]

Great stuff, Tchurik. I haven't traded NG for a long time already... But I remember that it is very cunning market, strongly depends of different seasonal stuff, storages dynamic, weather etc.. Sometimes, action there is absolutely unexpected. Interesting to see what will happen, keep us informed.



BTW, it is some cold comes to EU, maybe your DRPO will work...

Haha thanks for your support Sive, i guess that's always winter somewhere in the world! But yes there's a big seasonality and the first two months of 2023 combined were among the three warmest on record for that period going back to 1895!!
Fundamentaly i expect prices to increase in result from rising demand from LNG terminal, and seasonal increases in natural gas demand in the electric power sector. In addition, natural gas production will be relatively flat for the rest of 2023 as producers reduce drilling in response to lower prices.

But what is most interesting is the technical view. For now it is not very sexy, but we're taking about a weekly DRPO which is a very powerful reversal pattern. There is a big level below around 1,85/1,90, yet i am slowly getting in now.

I'll keep posting about this to see if the pattern is forming or not.
For those who could be interested by such a plan, i recall that the trend is massively bearish, and that it could take some time to form the pattern but as i am doing a impressive performance with gold (thanks to you Sive), i can afford to take risk here.

So yesterday we had the reaction i was expecting, even better, with the formation of an Island Reversal that could confirm the double bottom on the daily chart.

I took position as i said here yesterday, and will complete this buy once we will have a close above the weekly 3x3

Let's see how all this will develop...