Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, January 08 - 12, 2024

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
18,635
Fundamentals

It is difficult to expect every week new breaking data or information that re-shape the market. This week mostly, it was politics - official BRICS increase, breaking of logistics in Red Sea, Epstein documents publications and some other. Economical data from the other side, has not become an absolute surprise. Still, it helps market to take more reasonable view on Fed's policy, suggesting that previous position was too optimistic. As we already have specified the cornerstone moments of our scenario, and think that Gold has positive perspectives in 2024 - Taiwan elections on 13th of January and the US inflation data release could increase volatility. Elections have vital meaning for China-US confrontation in the region, so, depending on results the direction on gold market could change as well, especially if escalation will increase.

Market overview

Gold entered 2024 under pressure from a jump in the U.S. dollar, but held its ground on expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year and rising concerns over attacks on shipping in the Red Sea - the possibility of escalation in the Red Sea kept gold prices supported, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Gold prices surged 13% in 2023 in their first annual rise since 2020 and are forecast to reach record highs in 2024, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

"As we saw how much of a lift the price of gold obtained from expectations of rate cuts in 2023, we could well see significant gains in 2024 when central banks actually start loosening their policies," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index, adding that the actual timing and extent of the rate cuts will depend on incoming data.

Data on Thursday showed that U.S. weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week and U.S. private employers hired more workers than expected in December, pointing to persistent strength in the labor market. The minutes of the Fed's last meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed a growing conviction among officials that inflation was under control and a concern that "overly restrictive" monetary policy posed threats to the economy.
1704626830306.png


"With the Fed implementing several rate cuts this year, this should bring back financial investors via ETF and bar demand and lift the price of gold to $2,250 per ounce by the end of the year," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

"The gold market bulls need a fresh new spark to jump-start a price rally," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.(But) if the jobs data comes in stronger, that will put some pressure on prices and probably dial back (market) expectations for Fed interest rate cuts."

On Friday after swinging up and down a percentage point on mixed U.S. economic data, bullion eyed its first weekly decline in four weeks on an overall stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields. Official data showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in December, but separate data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicated that the U.S. services sector slowed considerably last month.

"First, the nonfarm payrolls data came in stronger than expected, due to which we saw some pressure applied to gold ... However, on the heels of that we received some weaker-than-expected ISM data and as a result we've seen a turn in trend," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

The US service sector came close to stagnating at the end of 2023 as the employment measure showed the biggest contraction in more than three years. Hiring in the service sector accounts for the lion’s share of US economy, so a slowdown could be a threat to growth and may lead to faster rate cuts by the Fed.

Treasury yields and the greenback plunged after the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management, erasing gains from robust payrolls data earlier Friday. That boosted bullion by as much as 1%, a U-turn from a 0.9% loss earlier. Swap traders boosted bets for a rate cut by March.

The employment print “is convincing the market that jobs will weaken. This has driven gold higher to nearly $2,060,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “I suspect gold traders are pricing a more aggressive Fed than the Fed wants to be” in terms of monetary easing this year.

Both the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels in three weeks, heading for their best weeks since July and October, respectively. The market expects a chance of about 67% for a Fed rate cut by March, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
1704625445764.png


"With the U.S. Federal Reserve pivoting towards rate cuts, we see the guessing game with regards to the number of rate cuts being a major driver of volatility in the months ahead," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, said in a note.

On the physical front, gold buying in major consumer India rose this week, as domestic prices fell back from record highs.

US DEBT HITS $34 TRLN LEVEL
This week all news agencies were spreading the news that the US national debt has reached $34 trillion. But this figure tells nothing without overall context. In addition to this, we need to look at the budget deficit, tax collection, GDP growth and the cost of debt servicing. The problem is that the Americans, (as well as in Russia, by the way), openly underestimate inflation. This results in GDP growth. This moment we've discussed in details yesterday.

Therefore, it is impossible to adequately perceive this indicator. And it is becoming difficult "to draw" more or less acceptable numbers: tax revenues and interest on debts, it is literally a disaster. Revenues are falling for ~7.2% this year even without taking into account inflation (this is with the +5% GDP growth shown for the year), while expenses are rising.

The US budget deficit is 27%. It's actually not far from Ukraine. While in Debt-to-GDP ratio the Americans are generally far ahead. As a result, in reality the country is in stagflation. Moreover, the colossal credit impulse does not correct the situation, but only allows it to stay afloat. By the way, a high key rate with simultaneous growth of the stock market in nominal terms is not a nonsense at all for such an “economic regime.”

Probably just like Trump at the end of 2018, the Biden team will try to force Powell to lower the rate before the elections. As a result, even if Trump manages to take power by force, he will inherit a country on the verge of economic collapse. By the way - recall that it was D. Trump who ordered to start money printing in 2020... which happens before J. Biden "won" elections. D. Trump also has not shown himself as strong business executive and it is still a lot of question to his Presidency term. He is good showman, true. That's why it is really big chances that neither J. Biden nor D. Trump will become major persons of 2024 elections. By the way - J. Biden is a lawyer by his education. He knows how this kind of deeds should be done... The new standard for the "Rule of law" from the Americans is the number of your supporters in court.

At this stage problems may arise not because of the fact of a huge debt per se, but at the moment when everyone except the Fed stops buying new debt. It’s not that far away (the process is ongoing), but it certainly won’t be tomorrow. By the way, if investors stop buying US bonds voluntarily, all markets will experience a liquidity crisis mixed with panic while treasuries will be one of the last to die.

So the system still has some margin safety. The main problem for the American financial system at the current stage remains political risks. If they don’t seriously fight on the eve of or immediately after the elections, then nothing will happen to the markets. So, before the turn of 2024-2025, we will have time to celebrate reaching the milestones of 35 and 36 and perhaps even 37 trillion. without any special consequences. But then the question is interesting - all the reserves and opportunities for maneuver by the beginning of 2025 may end...

Taking a bit wider look, the essence of the question is that in order to devalue debts through inflation and emission, one must stop making new debts at least for some time. But this doesn’t work. Today, the new national debt in the US and EU is mainly social services and interest. Moreover, interest at this stage has become a bigger problem than social services.

If you reduce interest rates, then everyone except your own Central Bank stops buying new debt. If you switched to direct emission financing through the Central Bank, you don’t need to fool around with public government debt and attract investors. The next link in this chain of reasoning is the idea that investors, in principle, can be stiffed under some plausible pretext - “we are not to blame, but we have force majeure,” for example.:D

It seems that the US authorities (and behind them the EU) will move in this direction. How quickly we will see, but the first excellent reason for force majeure is the 2024 elections. Say - a kind of breaking news: headlines
Supporters of the evil Trump seized the treasury, stole all the servers and damaged the electronic signature
- of course, this is exaggerating, but why not continue the series. "taking of the Capitol"?)) Actually it has appeared in the news again, have you seen?

And here we're slowly coming to gold...

Gold collapsed during the 2020 pandemic crisis. but grew back quickly. As we've said in our FX report in 2024 we expect reversal on the stock market, although it is difficult to say whether it will be sharp or gradual. But we could suggest that the Fed in election year will try to make it as smooth as possible.

At the beginning of 2023 several mediocre American banks collapsed, and everyone ran into gold. In conditions when, by the end of 2024, corporations, exhausted by high rates, begin to borrow at even higher (than in 2023) rates, the number of bankruptcies will increase, and probably not only in the US. Their peak, according to some analysts' estimates, may occur at the end of 2024. So, buying government or corporate bonds in such a situation will be a suicide.

Let's bring here geopolitics and the fact that the new US administration in January 25 will need to sort out the situation with the US debt ceiling (and this potentially smacks of default) - and you will understand that gold has virtually no risks. During the transition period, when Bitcoin comes into its own (if we are talking about a long-term investment model), gold will play its protective role in the difficult situation in which we all, as investors, find ourselves.

Now we consider relatively near standing targets around 2300-2500$. But on longer run some analysts consider 3200-4100$ goals for 2024-2025. Alternatively, if everything somehow will turn positive, at least hypothetically we have to consider this scenario either - another correction is possible, but hardly lower than 1800-1860$

Now $3000 seems like some "too far to reach" target, but Bloomberg Intelligence's M. McGlone also points on this level:

Gold is anticipated to surge to unprecedented heights in 2024, potentially reaching $3,000, driven by worsening macroeconomic conditions, as stated by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist, Mike McGlone. In his “Global Commodities 2024 Outlook,” McGlone suggests that gold’s outperformance compared to most commodities and the S&P 500 until November 29 signals a possible reset, characterized by a significant liquidity-driven rise followed by a downturn, potentially the largest in history.

The strategist emphasizes the evolving relationship between gold and crude oil, suggesting an acceleration in favor of gold in 2024. Rising debt-to-GDP ratios and the US becoming a net crude and liquid fuel exporter contribute to this shift, particularly if the US enters a recession in 2024, as predicted by the Conference Board’s leading indicators. The widening excess of US and Canadian liquid fuel production, coupled with declining demand, may overpower OPEC’s attempts to stabilize crude prices. McGlone concludes by pointing to the rising gold-to-crude ratio since 2008, indicating a tendency for the ratio to spike during recessions.

Next is the head of Money Metals tells - Gold is ready to reach new historical highs in 2024. True, his company sells physical gold, i.e. he, in fact, is engaged in advertising, but he is not alone with these forecasts.

️Of course, there remains great uncertainty regarding the economy, inflation and interest rates. If persistent inflation pressures force central banks to keep rates high, then stock and bond markets could collapse, affecting precious metals markets as well, but the effect would be temporary , says Stefan Gleeson.

As mining production reaches the ceiling, demand for metals among industry, consumers and investors continues to grow. Investment demand is further driving the gold and silver markets. It rose after the COVID-19 outbreak but fell in 2023 as higher interest rates lured savers into money market funds and rising stock markets reduced the perceived appeal of bullion as a safe haven. In 2024, when central banks begin to ease monetary policy, this demand may revive again. And election uncertainty and a looming debt storm make owning physical precious metals a must for those looking to protect their wealth.

Market volatility could also ramp up later in the year around the presidential election. With partisan prosecutors and judges threatening to jail the leading rival to incumbent President Joe Biden, and some state election officials moving to remove former President Donald Trump from the ballot, questions about the legitimacy of the election are already being raised. Some pundits are warning that something akin to a civil war could break out if the declared winner of the election is perceived to have stolen it.

Regardless of the outcome, larger questions arise about the political system's ability to cope with the growing debt crisis. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats in power have any realistic plans to control spending, balance the budget or pay down the debt.

In 2024, paying interest on the debt alone will cost the government more than $1 trillion. As the national debt tops $34 trillion, Social Security and Medicare are rapidly approaching insolvency, with trillions of dollars more in unfunded liabilities.

Taxes can never be raised high enough to cover these huge liabilities. However, within the framework of a fiat financial system, the US Treasury can always “borrow” more dollars by dumping bonds on the Fed’s balance sheet. Increasing the supply of currency is the way the government can continue to pay its bills.

And an increase in the amount of money can have a beneficial effect on the cost of physical gold.

Political Issues

Here we have no intention to discuss Epstein lists and are not interested with its content. The only thing that is worthy to tell is the fact of its publication - that is what really matters. As Democrats have broken the Silent law to not touch elites from opposite camp, immunity from prosecution - they have got the response, Republicans also have broken this law. But, in reality this is not about Democrats and Republicans, this is about bankers with Neocons and the camp of industrialists. Anyway, this showdown is supportive to gold.

Here we would like to talk about different things. Yesterday we already discussed consequences of logistic problems in Red Sea, its cost and that it should lead to raising of inflation very soon. Politically it means that the USA demonstrated absolute impotence in the Red Sea

Since December, the cost of shipping goods from Asia to Northern Europe has increased by 173% (+$4000 per container). While In the 10 days before January 2, the number of transits through the Suez Canal decreased by 28% y/y (3.1% of world trade). A good impetus for the second inflation wave on the eve of the American elections. Inflation will become a serious problem for the Fed in 6 months if the dynamics do not change. And it definitely will come.

This is the mystery - why the markets are pricing in a significant rate cut if everything is “ phenomenally good” in the economy, and the risks of a new wave of inflation, similar to Volcker, have not gone away - supply chains, Houthis-Panama, OPEC/oil-gasoline, etc.? Besides, It is symbolic that this guy is draining assets on highs.
1704630458121.png


But, on the background of this problem, nobody signed very important geopolitical shift - BRICS officially have added five new members. They are Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Ethiopia. As we've mentioned in Telegram channel - take a look at the map to understand why this is an epic step. All these countries are "envelope" Red Sea and major shipping ways in the region.

To understand who was accepted into the block. Another 3-4 countries and BRICS 10 will completely control the world's 2 most important straits. Israel will find themselves in such a “circle of friends” like nobody's business...

All this happens 7 days before elections in Taiwan. At the same time, Xi recently came to San Francisco and directly told Mr. Biden that he would take Taiwan and would not interfere with the Americans in any way. This is very reminiscent of the Russian-US negotiations at the end of 2021 on NATO issues on the borders of 1997.

Considering that the escalation for 2 years in a row has only been gaining momentum in the West-Global South context, it is only natural to expect further escalation. It doesn't even smell like a discharge. There are no real attempts at any kind of negotiations regarding any conflict. Primarily due to the position of the West.

With this new members, the less attention is paid to Ethiopia. And this is a big mistake. Yes it has no direct access to the sea. Ethiopia became the first country in the world to recognize Somaliland independence from Somalia. Moreover, Ethiopia will give Somaliland a stake in the national carrier Ethiopian Airlines. And Ethiopia will use the same port in Berbera that the Russian Federation built for its naval base. So Ethiopia has been confirmed: Ethiopia is also there on the issue of straits and naval bases. Just take a look where Somaliland stands and it becomes everything clear:
1704632086383.png

So, guys, conflicts around the world are raising like mushrooms after the rain...Gaza conflict is widening, tensions in Korea turns to hot stage, Israel doesn't recognize the limits which increases chances for Iran to be involved in conflict directly or indirectly. Together with domestic political dirty deeds make Biden to be very nervous. I do not understand how a human being of his age could care all this stuff.

In conclusion we could say, that everything that we see now is supportive to gold in mid term perspective. Despite that big media do not cover many topics that we've just discussed. Our suggestion is the same by far - keep buying physical gold, and keep holding what you already have bought.
 
Technicals
Monthly

So, on monthly picture everything mostly is the same. Trend remains bullish. As we've got High Wave pattern in December, now direction depends on breakout. Meantime, January is inside month. Here we've updated Pivots for 2024. Price now is flirting with YPP but has not tested it yet. As market stands very close - it is very probable that it should try to test it in January.

Our primary scenario here is the same - big reverse H&S on top with 2270$ upside OP target. It stands very close to new YPR1 area of 2200$:
gold_m_08_01_24.png


Weekly

We also keep intact analysis on weekly chart by the same reasons - too low volatility, so price stands around the same area as week ago.

We mostly remain focus on daily and intraday performance. Because while price stands inside the High Wave range it makes no impact on monthly and weekly charts. Only when breakout will happen we could start making new strategies here.

Meantime trend remains bullish, weekly overbought around 2150$ area. Next direction depends on the breakout of its range, as usual. Right now we could make some suggestions only.

Since just COP target has been touched, and pullback to K-support area already is done, current upward action could become the starting point of upward continuation, but as we've mentioned already few times - chances for downside AB-CD retracement are not eliminated totally by far. So we keep watching for intraday performance trying to get early signs of direction:
gold_w_08_01_24.png


Daily

Here we have the same issue as on EUR - Friday's High wave. I don't like it too much, because the process of direction choosing is a bit tricky. Still daily trend remains bearish, so as our context for trading on daily chart. Once again, it seems that we will be busy with intraday time frames mostly, trying to catch patterns there:
gold_d_08_01_24.png


Intraday

The same dramatic action we see on 1H chart, as a result of NFP doom&gloom. Both of our targets are met - butterfly downside extension and upside jump right to 5/8 resistance. This is actually, how HW pattern has been formed...

On EUR yesterday, we've discussed reverse H&S pattern and possible higher upward bounce. Here we do not have similar H&S shape. And overall action looks too choppy to decide something. Strong PMI upside momentum makes possible some upside continuation also here. So, I would wait for 1-2 sessions to see what will happen, and how durable PMI effect will be.
gold_1h_08_01_24.png
 
Last edited:
Greetings everybody,

So, clarity concerning daily High Wave pattern almost has come, but gold hits weekly/daily 2016-2017$ K-support area and now is showing reaction. Still, context remains bearish. Besides, new YPP at 2003$ area has not been tested yet. Thus, chances on downside continuation exist. And in general we can't consider long positions here by far, just because we do not have any background for this:
gold_d_09_01_24.png


On 4H chart we could see how market has challenged the lows. In general here is also possible to recognize big H&S, similar to the one on EUR, although it doesn't look as clear. Upside bounce from support level now looks slow. We have downside OP targets of 2010$ and 2000$ (for A point right on top):
gold_4h_09_01_24.png


Concerning position taking - still some questions exist, mostly the same as on EUR. Here, on 1H chart market stands in wide downside channel, where price regularly re-tests previous lows. Now gold stands mostly at the same position, but potentially it could go to the upper border of the channel and touch 2045$ K-resistance area. Many things will depend of CPI data on Thu.
gold_1h_09_01_24.png


Thus, if you consider short entry, we suggest the same strategy as on EUR - step by step entry. Say, 30% right here, at first resistance and 70% around 2045-2050$ if gold will get there... Or you could just wait for higher pullback. Vital area will be 2065$. In this case gold will form bullish reversal swing and big reverse H&S pattern will appear on the table... So, upside breakout of 2045 area and channel line should become the first bell of problems.
 
Thank you so much for sharing your analysis on gold! I really appreciate the time and effort you put into breaking down the complexities and providing such clear insights. Your perspective has been incredibly helpful and enlightening.
 
Greetings everybody,

So, today I suggest, we do not need daily chart as everything stands the same there. Let's start from 1H. Yesterday we've talked about bearish scenario and options for short entry. Now gold shows first downside bounce from predefined resistance, so, if you have sold gold - maybe it makes sense to move stops to breakeven. If gold still will climb to 2045-2050 - there might be another chance to step in.
gold_1h_10_01_24.png


Because potentially we consider downside butterfly on 4H chart - its target perfectly matches to downside OP around 2010 area. 1.618 extension corresponds to 2000$ downside OP target, if "A" point right at top:
gold_4h_10_01_24.png


Right now we do not consider any longs by far.
 
Greetings everybody,

So, bearish context remains valid on Gold market by far. Today, many things depend on CPI numbers later in the session. On 4H chart, yes, butterfly is loosing the shape, and it is more properly to speak about triangle now. But other bearish signs are still here - triangle is forming near the lows of daily High Wave pattern. Second is - gold starts showing signs of bearish dynamic pressure here:
gold_4h_11_01_24.png


On 1H chart market has shown two bounces down already from 2030-2035$ area. So, first entry was not a bad idea. Now market is trying to return back. While price action is coiling around - the channel is moving down and upper border is already predefined 2045$ K-area. Thus, in case of weak CPI and upside action we consider this level for possible short entry. Take a look that theoretically, if we get upside AB=CD - it agrees with the same $2045 level.
gold_1h_11_01_24.png


That's being said, we do not consider any long positions by far. Potentially 2045$ looks interesting for next short entry. But we need to see what CPI numbers will be and what kind of action market will show
 
Greetings everybody,

So, once again - everything was just fine until Yemen attack has happened. Gold has shown nice downside reaction on CPI data, so at least 2010$ target has been reached. But with this new geopolitical background we can't consider new shorts by far.

Market has failed to break High Wave lows down. Now chances on action to ~2060 area increase:
gold_d_12_01_24.png


On 4H chart downside scenario has worked nice, but sentiment has changed fast as soon as coalition start bombing Yemen... Now at the table we could see two patterns. First is small reverse H&S that we intend to deal with next week. It has neckline around 2040$. And it also might be the large one, with the neckline around 2060$. Something tells me that we should see both as conflict in Yemen hardly will finish soon:
gold_4h_12_01_24.png


It means that now we do nothing, wait for reaction down from 1H K-resistance area and channel border. But next week, we will think about long entry around Fib support levels with potential reverse H&S shape here:
gold_1h_12_01_24.png
 
Back
Top