Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 11-19-2009

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

The USD has been stuck in a range recently, and I've been neutral to bullish, but some confusingly dovish commentary yesterday from the Fed's Bollard may force the USD lower here into the end of the week; however, we've seen considerable dollar strength here early in the European session. The fact that we're headed towards USD strength amidst several reasons to be short USD, may mean the market finally is too oversold. I've closed out my longer term Euro short around break even to be safe though and will wait for more clarity or better confirmation to enter.

Stocks have been rangebound, unable to make the push up to 1120. At this point, a decline through recent lows around 1098 will be a good signal to chase it short with an 8-15 point SL as a break of those lows will see some follow-through over the following days at least. Long term, we're still very close to a top, so I'd hold short.

In news Wednesday, we saw fairly dovish BoE minutes shoot the GU down 50 pips fast with some whipsaw up and downs afterwards. US CPI conflicted with some housing data, so it didn't work well and I wasn't so sure it would. Anyhow, in news Thursday:

0430 UK Retail Sales m/m (0.5% expected) - This trade is usually good for a solid 40 pips and may give a retracement trade, but as with most retail sales releases, don't hold out on this one for more than 20-40 minutes max as this release will not change the ultimate direction for the session.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips.

1000 Philly Fed Index (10.4 expected)- I'd skip this unless it comes out with a very rare big surprise (15.0 deviation). If it does, look for more of a gradual move on EUR/USD rather than a quick spike.
If it comes out at 25.0 or higher, EUR/USD should rally 30-50 pips over 30 minutes or so.
If it comes out at -5.0 or lower, EUR/USD should fall 30-50 pips over 30 minutes or so.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
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