Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 12-03-2009

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

It looks like we're going to get another medium term push up on stocks and the EUR/USD with recent pushes we've seen. A break of 1.5144 will encourage me to buy the next decent dip on EUR/USD.

In stocks, we are likely to see a push up to 1120 over the next day or two. 1120 has some decent resistance though, so I'll look for signs of topping once it gets there in case a short starts to look good. I'd buy a dip to 1110 with a 6 point SL and 9-10 point TP on stocks futures.

Long term, we're still waiting for a major turn lower, but short to medium term is likely to get some follow through higher with just a bit more confirmation.

In news Wednesday, both the US ADP Employment figures and Aussie Retail Sales came out too close to expected to warrant a trade. In news Thursday:

0428 UK Services PMI (57.0 expected) - This indicator usually works pretty well and should provide a pretty reliable 40 pips. As with many UK releases, a retracement type trade has potential to hold up for 30-60 minutes, but I wouldn't hold it more than 45-60 minutes after the report as the news effect has run it's course by then.
If it comes out at 57.8 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 56.2 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips.

0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision (unchanged at 1.00% expected) - They are very unlikely to make a move here, but if they did it would be a shock.
If they hike, EUR/USD and EUR/GBP would rally 100+ pips.
If they cut, EUR/USD would fall 100+ pips.

0830 and 1000 US News - I don't think these reports are terribly tradable right now.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only.

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
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