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Sir Pipsalot's Daily Market Update 12-07-2009

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Dec 7, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Right now I think we're wrapping up the first leg in a 3 or 5 wave (TBD) down trend on the EUR/USD with the big move lower following NFP. Our analysis for what would happen with NFP worked perfectly with the reassuring numbers causing:
    1) A consistent move up on the USD/JPY that lasted over an hour
    2) A large, fast surge in EUR/JPY higher
    3) An initial EUR/USD up move that reversed lower hard within a few minutes.
    Hopefully one or more of these correct predictions helped you with your NFP trade Friday.

    With the larger trend shifting from up to sideways to down now, I'm thinking the EUR/USD is worth a position trade short around 1.4900-1.4950 with a 200-300 pip SL. My ultimate TP is somewhere about 1.3500, but I'm looking to TP some at various points along the way as well.

    The USD/JPY might also be setting up for a position trade buy around the 88.50 area or lower later this week.

    In stocks, we got a big whipsaw on the great NFP news, and I think the fact we had great news and a failed rally is a big sign that a top may be in place. I'd recommend shorting now on all timeframes. The futures currently price the S&P around 1105 as I type. For longer term timeframes, I'd keep an SL at least above 1120 just in case.

    There's no news on Monday, but we'll have some news to preview in tomorrow's update.
     

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