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Sir Pipsalot's Friday Market Update 08-06-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Aug 6, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Nothing new to add on the trend front on stocks or EUR/USD. Right now we're just waiting for these consolidation ranges to break to either confirm or refute the downwards biases. Please see recent signals for information on the my downwards bias on both.

    In news Thursday, we had little tradable data with both interest rate statements pretty much as expected. In news Friday:

    0700 CAD Employment (12.5K expected) - CAD Employment can often hit very large deviations and create very strong moves. Just cross your fingers and hope for another big deviation like last month. Even a moderate 20-30K deviations should be good for 40-50 pips though.
    If it comes out at 35K or higher, USD/CAD should fall 40+ pips.
    If it comes out at -10K or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40+ pips.

    0830 US NonFarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (-65K and 9.6% expected) - Be very careful to look out for conflicts between these two numbers or with revisions. Last month when NFP came out 50K worse, but Unemployment Rate came in 0.2% better, there was quite a whipsaw and little ultimate move. That being said, if they agree the move could be quite large. I think USD/JPY is the way to go on this one.
    --If NFP comes out at 125K or higher and Unemployment Rate comes in as expected or low, USD/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
    --If NFP comes out at 0K or lower, and Unemployment Rate comes in as expected or high, USD/JPY should sell off 50+ pips.
    --If NFP comes out pretty close to expectations, but Unemployment Rate is off by 0.2% or more, Unemployment Rate should take over the move and force USD/JPY up if it comes in low, and down if it comes in high.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. Vladon

    Vladon Private, 1st Class

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    Well, I can understand why one should buy USD/JPY if NFP come at +125K, but why you recommend to sell USD/JPY if NFP come at 0K (what is still about 60K above expectations) is a mistery for me.

    My guess is that you just do not pay any attention to what you are recommending.

    Recently your posts are either too late (if not missing) or misleading...

    Probably you should consider just stopping to make your advices if you have no time or desire to do it properly.

    By the way, just note how decreased the number of people posting in this thread recently.
    It is also an indicator, which can tell something about. :)
     
    #2 Vladon, Aug 6, 2010
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2010
  3. Rubin Hood

    Rubin Hood Private

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    Vladon, my guess it that you did not think before you post.

    I didn't see you try to analyse and predict the market accurately in your posts.

    Probably you should consider just not saying anything if you have no time or desire to think before you do.


    As for me I'll take an experienced trader's analysis (even though it's not 100%) over no analysis, any day.
     
  4. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

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    I think this was just a typo. Looks like the triggers were 60K deviation for a sell and 65K deviation for a buy. If you just reverse the buy and sell numbers (and put a "-" in front of the 125) it makes sense. For ex, sell if -125K, buy if 0.

    Agreed that taking it at first blush it could have been confusing, but this is a non-issue if one is doing their own research and formulating their own triggers. I practice this, and I caught this typo or whatever immediately, and it was no problem. I'll just repeat what I've said before: it's ESSENTIAL that you do at least some research yourself. Anybody can make a typo, no matter how great a trader they are (and Sir Pips is good). Don't be satisfied being spoon fed triggers without first having some idea of what YOU would do.

    Some people will follow that advice and some won't, but that's my 2 cents for what it's worth...
     
    #4 Boko Maru, Aug 8, 2010
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2010
  5. Vladon

    Vladon Private, 1st Class

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    I do agree with you that if you read this numbers from right to left, put a minus sign before them and make some other manipulations, you will get what you need :), but I do not agree that that was a typo, rather careless writing which comes from careless thinking...

    Just as you, I used to look into Sir Pips advices for the long time, and agree with you that it had a nice track records. But recently his posts started to deteriorate what is especially seen comparing with the similar analysis of Liu here on FXPA, and the main purpose of my previous post was just to remind to Sir Pips the common wisdom that if someone do not want to do something properly it is better not to do it at all.
     
    #5 Vladon, Aug 8, 2010
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2010
  6. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

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    Well fair enough, I appreciate your point of view, but like I was saying from my perspective, I am counting on my own analysis and research more than SP, Henry, or whoever. That was really the point I was trying to make...
     
  7. jjec02

    jjec02 Recruit

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    how to find news coming out

    Is there a place I can go to to see immediately when certain news comes out? Like US retails sales? etc.

    Thanks
     
  8. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I'm really sorry about the typo/mistake in the numbers there. It was a bonehead mistake on my end, but I think you're taking it a bit too far with your extrapolations.

    The main reason there are fewer people following my signals here is because Felix and I had a bit of a falling out when I stopped working for him and he banished me to a hard to find corner of FXPA and refuses to mention or highlight my signals in their updates and emails. The fact that several hundred people here still read them is actually surprising to me. I mainly post this signal on another site and I've just kept them here for you guys =P
     

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