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Sir Pipsalot's Monday Market Update 09-13-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Sep 14, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    ***Sorry, I forgot to hit the submit button after I typed this up last night, but posting it here for reference***

    Hey folks,

    Some risk appetite revolving around Chinese growth and a favorable ruling from the Bassel III conference has helped propel risk pairs like AUD and NZD higher, but also EUR/USD up through the trading range from late last week forcing me out of my EUR/USD short and into a more neutral stance for now. I need to see a little more price action Monday to regain a confident short term outlook on EUR/USD moving forward.

    I'm also still neutral on GBP/USD looking more for session based opportunities than swing trades for now.

    EUR/GBP however has worked quite well and is up 50+ pips since my buy recommendation from 0.8250 Friday. It has worked off the bottom of it's sloping channel and is looking good for it's 90-340 pips TP.

    In news Friday, we saw CAD Employment come in just slightly higher, and Unemployment Rate just slightly worse, so we had a temporary 30-40 pip move down based on the Employment number, but the drop in USD/CAD was unsustainable and a no trade based on our triggers. In news Monday:

    1845 NZ Retail Sales m/m (0.0% expected) - When triggers are hit, this report generally moves about 20-30 pips in the first minute. After that, there's about a 60% chance for further pips on afterspikes for about 40-50 pips in the first 10-30 minutes, and reattempts at the 40-50 pip mark (after a 40-80% pullback) and possible breakouts to 80-100 pips total over the next 2-6 hours. Also look at the Ex-Auto number (0.1% expected) to make sure there's no conflicts.

    Based on these tendencies, I may take a short term scalp to make money in those first 10-30 minutes, but I'll probably close that out and put in a limit order to get in on a retracement later on and look for profits consistent with what I described above.

    --If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 20-30 pips initially, and likely 40-50 pips higher over 10-30 minutes.
    --If it comes out at -0.5% or lower, NZD/USD should fall 20-30 pips initially and likely 40-50 pips lower over 10-30 minutes.
     

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