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Key Releases

USD is strengthening against EUR and GBP but weakening against JPY.
The current strengthening of the US dollar against most competitors is associated with the end of the positive effect that the July inflation data, published last week, had on the market. The statistics showed a decline from 9.1% to 8.5%, which gave investors hope for a slowdown in the rate increase by the US Federal Reserve to 50.0 percentage points, which have been largely leveled after comments from regulator officials and experts. They noted that inflation remains high, and the recent slowdown in the indicator may be due to temporary factors, so in general, there are no reasons for a less sharp tightening of monetary policy in the country yet. The attention of experts this week will be riveted to the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, which is due on Wednesday. The document may explain the reasons for the latest rate increase and hint at further actions by the regulator.


EUR is weakening today against its main competitors – JPY, GBP, and USD.
Today, July data on the wholesale price index was released in Germany: the indicator fell from 0.1% to –0.4% MoM and from 21.2% to 19.5% YoY, which indicates that the German and the European economy as a whole is experiencing a slight decrease in inflationary pressure, but it will continue to put pressure on the purchasing power of the population, and, consequently, demand. It is also worth noting that the German government plans to impose an additional tax on all gas consumers to distribute its additional cost evenly. This measure could harm households, as they will have to pay an additional 480 euros per year.


GBP is weakening today against USD and JPY but is strengthening against EUR.
Due to a lack of significant economic releases, the movement of GBP is driven by external factors. Investors are looking ahead to Tuesday and Wednesday's release of key data on employment and inflation in the UK, which may indicate whether the Bank of England will decide on a second consecutive 50.0 points rate hike at its upcoming September meeting. Experts' forecasts indicate the likelihood of just such actions by the regulator since employment in July should increase by 256.0K, and inflation in July should rise to 9.8%.


JPY is strengthening against its main competitors – USD, EUR, and GBP.​

Investors are focused on the publication of a block of Japanese economic data, the most important of which is statistics on the country's Q2 gross domestic product (GDP): the value added 0.5% QoQ and 2.2% YoY, which is still below forecasts analysts at 0.6% and 2.5%, respectively. The positive dynamics of the indicators were mainly supported by an increase in private household consumption by 1.1%. However, experts see further prospects for economic recovery as negative, as it may be under pressure from a new outbreak of coronavirus and an increase in commodity prices. In contrast to the data on GDP, industrial production statistics pleased the market: in June, the indicator increased by 9.2% instead of the expected decline of 7.5%. Japanese industry is still stable, but the likely slowdown in global economic growth makes the prospects for its further development uncertain.

AUD is weakening today against its main competitors – USD, GBP, JPY, and EUR.
The Australian dollar came under pressure after the release of poor economic data from China, which fell short of market forecasts and negatively affected the cost of commodities. Thus, the production volume grew by 3.8%, falling short of the forecasted level of 4.6%, and retail sales – by 2.7% instead of the expected 5.0%. In general, the Chinese economy is under pressure, despite the exit from the coronavirus pandemic, which threatens to reduce the consumption of raw materials and losses for Australian exports. Under these conditions, investors' attention is focused on the further actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). He is expected to continue raising rates, but how much (25.0 or 50.0 basis points) is unclear. The situation will become clear after the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the RBA, which may contain hints of further actions of the regulator, as well as after the release of data on the wage change index for the second quarter.


Oil quotes are being corrected down.
Prices were under pressure from poor Chinese manufacturing data, which fell from 3.9% to 3.8%, which indicates an insufficient recovery of the economy from the negative consequences of the coronavirus outbreak and a possible decrease in demand for oil from its main consumer. Investors are focused on the continuation of negotiations between Western countries and Iran on a nuclear deal: during the day, the authorities of the Islamic Republic should answer the next version of the agreement developed by Eurozone diplomats. If the parties reach an agreement, then the pressure on the quotes will increase since Iran can increase production by 1–1.5M barrels per day in the next six months.​

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Key Releases​

The USD today continues to strengthen against its main competitors – the euro, the pound and the yen.

Investors are still waiting for the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Fed, which should be published on Wednesday. The document may contain comments on the latest increase in interest rates, as well as hints at further actions by the financial authorities. Thus, some investors believe that the slowdown in inflation in July from 9.1% to 8.5% can act as a catalyst for adjusting the indicator by 50.0 percentage points, while others tend to move to 75.0 percentage points, since the level of consumer price growth in the country remains extremely high and threatens the purchasing power of households. In this regard, we can note a review by analysts from The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who believe that the decisions of the US Fed may be justified and not plunge the economy into a recession, but there is less and less chance of this. July data from the US construction market was also published today. The figures were mixed, with the number of building permits issued falling from 1.696M to 1.674M, better than the expected 1.650M, while the number of houses under construction corrected from 1.599M to 1.446M.​

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The euro is weakening today against the USD and the pound, but is strengthening against the yen.

The focus of investors is the release of data on the index of economic sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) and trade data from the eurozone countries. Indicators in August showed negative dynamics: the value for the eurozone fell from -51.1 points to -54.9 points, and for the EU economic leader, Germany, from -53.8 points to -55.2 points, which is stronger than experts expected. In general, companies' biggest fear is that a continued rise in the cost of living will be reflected in private consumption and lead to a reduction in household spending. ZEW spokesman Michael Schroeder noted that high inflation and expected increases in heating and electricity tariffs are leading to lower profit expectations for companies. Also today came out the June data on the trade balance of the eurozone, which remained in deficit in the amount of 24.6B euros against the background of the rapid rise in oil and gas prices.​

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The pound is weakening against the USD, but strengthening against the euro and the yen.

The data of the British labor market published today turned out to be generally weak: the unemployment rate in June remained the same and amounted to 3.8%, but employment increased only by 160.0K, which is lower than the forecasts of 256.0K, and the May indicator of 296.0K. At the same time, the level of wages continues to grow, which contributes to the development of inflation: excluding bonuses, the indicator increased by 4.75%, and including them – by 5.1%. However, it still does not keep up with the increase in prices, which creates additional pressure on the standard of living of citizens and may seriously reduce consumer demand in the future. This situation is likely to cause further sharp rate hikes by the Bank of England.​

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The yen is weakening today against its main competitors – the USD, the euro and the pound.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the Japanese currency is traded under the influence of external factors. It is only worth noting that investors are preparing for the publication of foreign trade data for July. It is expected that the volume of exports of goods will slow down growth from 19.35% to 18.2%, and imports of products to Japan will be the June figure of 45.7%. The trade balance deficit will increase from 1.398B to 1.405B yen. Realization of forecasts may put additional pressure on the yen. We also note that the government is preparing a new package of support for the population in the amount of 4.7T yen, the details of which are not yet known, but experts believe that it will contain measures to curb rising fuel and food prices.​

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The Australian dollar is weakening today against the pound and the USD, but is strengthening against the yen and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the euro.

In the focus of investors' attention is the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). According to the document, the regulator still sees the need for a further increase in interest rates in order to prevent inflation from rising, but does not have a clear plan for tightening monetary policy and will try to prevent the economy from going into recession. It should be recalled that in August the RBA raised the rate by 50 percentage points, bringing it to 1.85%.​

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Oil quotes are trying to grow today.

Oil quotes are attempting growth today, winning back yesterday's losses, but in general the situation on the market remains uncertain. The influence of two opposite factors is observed. On the one hand, investors fear a global economic slowdown that could hit demand for oil and fuel, as the latest economic data from China turned out to be weak: production rose by 3.8% instead of 4.6%, and retail sales – by 2. 7% instead of 5.0% expected. On the other hand, rising prices are supported by investors' hopes that the difficult economic situation will push the Chinese authorities to introduce new incentives that will revive the industry and demand. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has already promised such measures. The situation with the “nuclear deal” between Western countries and Iran also remains ambiguous. Earlier, the authorities of the Islamic Republic gave a response to the new proposals developed by EU diplomats, but the text was not made public. During the day, investors are also waiting for the publication of a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves in the USA from the American Petroleum Institute (API). The last time the figure rose by 2.156M barrels. The continuation of this trend may put pressure on oil quotes.
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Can a bonus be withdrawn with profits, when I start making withdrawals?​

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Thank you for sharing your question with the community.

The profit and the initial balance of from an account with the deposit bonus can be withdrawn without restrictions. But, the credit given by Solid ECN can't be cashed out.

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Key Releases​

The USD is weakening against the pound today and has ambiguous dynamics in pairs with the euro and the yen.

Investors are focused on the minutes of the last meeting of the US Fed, published earlier, which confirmed the “hawkish” mood of the regulator's members on the issue of adjusting monetary policy parameters until inflation begins to decline significantly. The calculated "neutral" level for them is the range of 2.25-2.50%. Department officials also noted that their actions will be based on economic data, which is the main difficulty for the market. After the US Fed meeting, the July inflation statistics were released, according to which the rate slowed down to 8.5%, and it is not yet known whether this will be enough to start adjusting the interest rate to 50.0 basis points. In addition, weekly data on the US labor market turned out to be better than experts' expectations: initial applications for unemployment benefits increased by 250.0K, which is lower than the 265.0K expected by analysts, and the total number of citizens receiving benefits reached 1.437M, which also inferior to the forecast of 1.438M.​

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The euro is weakening against the pound and the yen today and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the USD.

In the focus of investors' attention is the publication of the July data on inflation in the eurozone: the consumer price index fell from 0.8% to 0.1% on a monthly basis, and increased from 8.6% to 8.9% on an annual basis, while the base monthly value adjusted from 0.2% to -0.2%, and the annual value from 3.7% to 4.0%. A significant contribution to the growth of inflation was made by the increase in prices for electricity (by 4.02%), food products, alcohol and tobacco (by 2.08%). These data may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to take another rate hike in the near future, and possibly more serious than in July (by 50.0 basis points). Regulator board member Isabel Schnabel has already said that there were no noticeable results after the introduced measures, and her rhetoric was interpreted by investors as a signal of continued tightening of monetary policy in the future.​

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The pound is strengthening against the USD and the euro today and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the yen.

The British currency is recovering its positions lost after the release of weak July data on inflation in the UK. In general, the situation in the national economy remains unstable, and market participants are preparing for the onset of a recession. In the last week alone, consumer spending tracked by debit and credit cards fell by 0.7%, according to the UK Office for National Statistics, as high inflation continues to limit demand. We also note that Liz Truss, the leader of the election campaign for the post of Prime Minister of the country, who previously announced her intention to partially limit the independence of the Bank of England, has now turned her attention to other regulators. In particular, she is going to review the functions of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the Prudential Regulatory Authority of the Bank of England (PRA) and the Payments System Regulator (PSR). The reason for this was the insufficient attention of these organizations to ensuring economic growth in the country.​

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The yen is strengthening against the euro today and has ambiguous dynamics in pairs with the pound and the USD.

In general, the Japanese currency is still under pressure from the release of negative July trade data, which recorded a serious predominance of the volume of imports over exports, which continued to grow due to the increase in prices for oil, coal and gas. The released data testify to the instability of the national economic recovery process and may give the Bank of Japan more arguments in favor of maintaining the current soft monetary policy. Tomorrow, investors expect the publication of the July data on inflation in Japan. The consumer price index is projected to fall from 2.4% to 2.2% on an annualized basis, while the base value will increase from 2.2% to 2.4%. In any case, the indicator will continue to remain above the target level of 2.0%.​

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The Australian dollar is weakening today against the euro and the pound, but is strengthening against the yen and the USD.

The focus of investors is the publication of the July data on the labor market, which turned out to be mixed: the unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, which is a forty-eight-year low. Total employment decreased by 40.8K instead of the expected growth by 25.0K, while full employment decreased by 86.9K. Thus, the labor market is beginning to experience pressure from the tightening of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Nevertheless, experts are confident that interest rates will continue to rise in the near future, since the problem of high inflation is seen by officials as the most dangerous for economic development.​

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Oil quotes continue to rise today.

Prices are supported by the report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which recorded a serious reduction in the reserves of "black gold" by 7.056M barrels instead of the expected decrease by 0.275M barrels, and gasoline – by 4.642M barrels, with a forecast of 1.096M barrels. However, only distillate inventories rose insignificantly by 0.766M barrels. Meanwhile, there is still no clarity around the “nuclear deal” between the Western countries and Iran, which could provide an additional volume of cheaper energy to the market. The lack of new comments from Iran, the EU and the USA is alarming for investors.​

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Oil quotes are trying to reduce.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report on energy inventories was released yesterday, which was generally positive for the market: the figure fell by 0.448M barrels, exceeding the forecasted decrease by 0.117M barrels, while gasoline inventories fell by 4.5M barrels. However, these data failed to strengthen fuel quotes significantly, as investors' fear of an impending global recession, supported by poor production data in China and July inflation statistics in the UK, continues to prevail. Today, markets are waiting for data on oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): the value may decrease by 0.0275M barrels, which will support energy prices.​

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Morning Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics, holding near the strong psychological support at 1.0000. Market activity remains quite low as Monday's macroeconomic calendar is empty, and investors fear increasing risks in the global economy. The focus today is on the monthly report from the Bundesbank. Investors remain concerned about high inflation in the EU, which is forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to act more decisively. German producer inflation data released last Friday showed a 5.3% increase in July after rising 0.6% a month earlier, although analysts' forecasts did not suggest significant changes, and in annual terms the Producer Price Index accelerated from 32.7% to 37.2% against the expected 32.0%.

GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with mixed dynamics, holding near 1.1830 and trying to move away from the "bearish" close of trading last week. Against the backdrop of an active fall on Thursday and Friday, the British currency updated local lows from July 14. In turn, the US dollar is again actively in demand among investors, as the unstable situation on world markets is pushing them to look for new options for preserving their capital. Despite positive macroeconomic data on inflation, which receded from record highs in July, the US Federal Reserve is still set for further sharp tightening of monetary policy. A similar position is shared by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, forced to deal with high inflation at the cost of an almost inevitable recession. The latest forecasts of the British regulator suggest that the decline will be recorded as early as the fourth quarter, and the transition to growth is expected no earlier than 2024. Meanwhile, the pound received some support on Friday from Retail Sales data, showing a rise of 0.3% in July after declining by 0.2% a month earlier, although analysts had expected the negative trend to remain at –0.2%. In annual terms, sales volumes decreased by 3.4% after falling by 6.1% in June.

AUDUSD
The Australian dollar shows a noticeable increase, recovering from the "bearish" last week. The AUD/USD pair is testing 0.6900 for a breakout, retreating from the local lows of July 21, updated last Friday. The current growth of the instrument can be associated only with technical factors, while the positions of the US currency are still quite strong. In addition, earlier the US Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to the policy of a sharp increase in interest rates, intending to put an end to the risks of high inflation. The focus of investors at the beginning of the week is the decision of the People's Bank of China to cut the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.70% to 3.65%. Recall that since August 2019, local banks have been using the LPR parameter to calculate their floating rates, while previously a more traditional base lending rate was used. It should also be noted that last week the Chinese regulator announced a reduction in interest rates under the Medium-Term Lending Facility program (MLF), and also announced quantitative easing (QE) in the amount of 2.0 billion yuan.

USDJPY
The US dollar continues to trade with an uptrend, developing a "bullish" trend and updating local highs from July 27. The instrument continues to be supported by expectations of further tightening of monetary policy in the US, despite the fact that inflation showed a decrease in July, retreating from record levels. Meanwhile, demand for risky assets is falling amid growing fears about a possible transition of a number of developed economies into recession. In addition, traders are concerned about the situation in the energy markets against the backdrop of the approach of cold weather and the persistence of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. The Bank of Japan is noticeably inferior to the US Federal Reserve in decisive steps to curb inflation and, in particular, to adjust monetary policy parameters, since the national economy has long been under pressure from deflationary phenomena. At the moment, the situation with the growth of consumer prices has improved somewhat, but the indicator is still below the central bank's target levels. Last Friday's data showed an acceleration in the National Consumer Price Index in July from 2.4% to 2.6%, while analysts had expected a decline of 2.2%. CPI Excluding Food and Energy in July rose from 1.0% to 1.2%, while the forecast was for a slowdown in dynamics to 0.6%. At the end of the week, investors expect the publication of preliminary data on Tokyo Consumer Price Index for August.

XAUUSD
XAUUSD is trading near 1740, updating local lows from July 28. The pressure on the position of the instrument is exerted by distinct "hawkish" signals generated by the US Federal Reserve in an attempt to overcome record inflation. This week, investors are looking forward to the regulator's conference in Jackson Hole, where the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will make a traditional speech. Market participants are looking to get a few more hints on the prospects for further monetary policy, as current analyst forecasts suggest a roughly equal chance of an interest rate hike during the September meeting of the regulator by 50 basis points or by 75 basis points. In addition, the XAUUSD pair cannot change the current trend against the backdrop of a rising dollar, which is supported, among other factors, by the fall in the Chinese yuan quotes. While the US Federal Reserve is hesitant about the pace of tightening monetary parameters, the People's Bank of China is pursuing an easy monetary policy and adjusting interest rates downwards in order to support the national economy after the coronavirus pandemic. The country still adheres to a "zero tolerance" policy for the possibility of an increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in the population, which leads to
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USD is strengthening against its main competitors – GBP, EUR, and JPY.
The July poor data on sales in the US secondary housing market were published yesterday: the figure fell from 5.11M to 4.85M or 5.9%. Earlier, it became known that the number of building permits issued decreased by 1.3%, and the volume of new housing construction – by 9.6%, so experts are already talking about the possibility of a recession in the construction sector. Nevertheless, the US labor market, which remains stable, continues to support the US economy, despite the weakness in other areas. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the regulator was considering another significant rate hike in September and added that it is not yet possible to say with certainty that inflation in the country has reached its peak.​

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EUR weakens against USD but strengthens against GBP and JPY.
Today, the German Producer Price Index for July was published: the indicator rose from 0.6% to 5.3% MoM and 32.7% to 37.2% YoY. Growing inflationary pressures in the economy leave the European Central Bank (ECB) with no other option than a further tightening of monetary policy, which threatens the region with a recession. For example, Germany is already in serious trouble: according to the monthly report released yesterday by the Ministry of Finance, the outlook for the German economy is negative due to reduced gas supplies from Russia, persistently high prices for energy and other goods, and longer-than-expected disruptions in supply chains. Of the positive news, we can note the release of the June data on the balance of the current account of the Eurozone countries: the balance again became positive and amounted to 4.2B euros.​

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GBP is weakening against EUR and USD but has ambiguous dynamics against JPY.
GBP remains under pressure from poor inflation data for July, with the CPI rising from 9.4% to 10.1% YoY, higher than the forecasted 9.8% and the highest reading since 1982. Under these conditions, the Bank of England is likely to continue raising rates, increasing the risks of a recession in the economy. British retail sales for July released today were generally positive, rising by 0.3% MoM instead of an expected decline of 0.2% and falling by 3.4%, which, however, is less than June's 6.1%. However, these statistics failed to strengthen the pound's position, as the positive effect was leveled by the start of transport workers' strikes, which could put additional pressure on the national economy.​

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JPY is weakening against EUR and USD but has ambiguous dynamics against GBP.
Investors are focused on the publication of data on inflation in Japan for July: the nationwide consumer price index rose from 2.4% to 2.6% YoY, while the underlying value corrected from 2.2% to 2.4%. Thus, the indicator exceeds the target level of the Bank of Japan for the fourth month in a row, calling into question the statements officials that the rise in prices is a temporary phenomenon. However, soon, the Japanese regulator is unlikely to abandon the current ultra-soft monetary policy.​

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AUD strengthens against GBP and JPY but has ambiguous dynamics against EUR and USD.
Due to a lack of significant economic releases, AUD is traded under the influence of external factors. Investors are looking ahead to Monday when preliminary data on business activity for August are released in Australia. It is predicted that the value in the manufacturing sector will decrease from 56.2 points to 55.0 points, and for the service sector, it will increase from 50.9 points to 51.0 points. These statistics will give an idea of the state of the Australian economy and whether it can withstand the pressure of the current rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).​

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Oil quotes are being corrected amid the strengthening of the USD and investors' fears about a slowdown in the global economy.
Experts believe that a significant increase in inflation in the Eurozone and the UK, a decline in production in China, and a weakening of the US construction market may reduce global oil demand. However, not all traders look at the situation pessimistically: for example, the new head of OPEC, Haitham Al Ghais, said that the global economy would cope with the current crisis and a decline in energy demand next year is possible but will not be serious.
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Key releases​

The USD today is moderately strengthening against the pound and the euro, but weakening against the yen.

Investors continue to prepare for the symposium in Jackson Hole and expect today's publication of data from the US construction market. On Friday, the chairman of the US Fed is to comment on the current situation in the economy and further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy. Most experts believe that despite the slowdown in inflation in July from 9.1% to 8.5%, Powell will confirm the need for further interest rate hikes until prices slow to 2.0%. He is likely to oppose slowing down the current rate of adjustment in value, as the problem of high retail prices has not yet been resolved and is considered by officials to be the most serious in the US economy. Also today, July data on new home sales in the USA will be released, which may add anxiety to investors: it is expected that the figure will decrease from 590.0K to 575.0K. Recall that other results of the sector last month turned out to be weak: the number of permits issued for construction decreased by 1.3%, the volume of construction of new houses – by 9.6%, sales in the secondary housing market – by 5.9%. The implementation of the forecast may put pressure on the dollar, as it will confirm the deterioration of the US construction industry.​

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The euro is weakening today against its main competitors – the yen, the pound and the USD.

The focus of investors is the publication of preliminary August data on business activity in the eurozone countries, which turned out to be weak: the index in the manufacturing sector and the composite index are in the stagnation zone for the second month, while growth continues only in the service sector, but it is also very insignificant. The index of business activity in manufacturing decreased from 49.8 points to 49.7 points, the composite index – from 49.9 points to 49.2 points, and in the service sector – from 51.2 points to 50.2 points. For the economic leader of the eurozone, Germany, the indicator in the service sector decreased from 49.7 points to 48.2 points, the composite indicator – from 48.1 points to 47.6 points, and in manufacturing increased slightly – from 49.3 points to 49. 8 points, but still remained in the slowdown zone. Overall, the stats continue to deteriorate as the high cost of living reduces consumer demand and disruptions in the supply of energy and components slow down production. According to experts, the continuation of the current dynamics makes a recession in the winter months more likely.​

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The pound is weakening against the USD today, strengthening against the euro and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the yen.

The pressure on the pound is exerted by weak preliminary data on business activity in the British economy: in the industrial sector, the indicator corrected from 52.1 points to 46.0 points and found itself in a stagnation zone for the first time since May 2020 against the backdrop of lower consumer demand, a shortage of personnel and instability since supplies of components and energy carriers. According to experts, these reasons will lead to a further slowdown in the sector in the coming months. Services are also slowing down, dropping from 52.6 points to 52.5 points as inflation continues to rise sharply, forcing citizens to lower spending levels, while the composite business activity index reached 50.9 points from 52.1 points earlier, which increases the risks of a recession, the onset of which the Bank of England predicts by the end of this year.​

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The yen is weakening against the USD, strengthening against the euro and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the pound.

Today, preliminary July data on business activity in the Japanese economy were published: the index in industry fell from 52.1 points to 51.0 points, and in the service sector – from 50.3 points to 49.2 points and for the first time since April of this year was in the zone of stagnation. In general, Japanese businesses are also under pressure from high fuel and electricity prices and weak demand. On the positive side, it is worth noting that, according to local media, the government is discussing the possibility of easing quarantine requirements for citizens. In particular, testing at the border of vaccinated travelers should be canceled, as well as the daily limit of those entering the country should be increased from 20.0K to 50.0K. These decisions will increase the influx of tourists and have a beneficial effect on the state of the national economy.​

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The Australian dollar has ambiguous dynamics paired with its main competitors – the euro, the pound, the yen and the USD.

Today, preliminary July data on business activity in the Australian economy were published: the index in the industrial sector fell from 55.7 points to 54.5 points, and in the service sector – from 50.9 points to 49.6 points and ended up in a stagnation zone. In general, the dynamics repeats those in other developed economies. The service sector is shrinking due to high inflation and reduced spending by citizens, and the industry is supported by high prices for coal and other raw materials exported from Australia, but it could come under pressure in the event of a serious downturn in the global economy.​

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Oil quotes are trying to grow today.

The rise in oil prices was supported by fears of a new production cut by the OPEC cartel and its allies. The day before, Saudi Arabia's energy minister told the national SPA news agency that the organization has the means to deal with the current downturn, including cutbacks in production. This comment made investors suggest that a decision on this issue could be discussed at the next meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC + agreement. During the day, investors are also waiting for the publication of a weekly report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). The last time oil reserves in the USA fell by 0.448M barrels. The continuation of this trend may put additional pressure on quotes.​

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Morning Market Review​

EURUSD
The European currency shows weak growth, trying to recover from updating record lows on Tuesday and testing 0.9990 for a breakout. At the same time, activity on the market remains subdued, as market participants prefer to wait for the appearance of additional instrument movement drivers. In particular, today Germany has published revised data on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter, as well as a block of statistics on the level of Business Confidence from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) for August. In addition, during the day the European Central Bank (ECB) will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, in which traders expect to find forecasts for further rate hikes in the autumn. With the opening of the US session, investors' attention will switch to US GDP statistics for the second quarter. Also starting today is the two-day annual symposium of world central bankers at Jackson Hole, which is scheduled to feature US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday.​

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GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with an uptrend, retreating from record lows updated on Tuesday. At the moment, the growth of the instrument is due to technical factors, as well as a drop in market activity ahead of the start of the annual symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole. Meanwhile, investors remain worried about rising inflation in the UK, fearing that the energy crisis will only get worse as the cold weather approaches. At the beginning of the week, investment bank Citi published a forecast that assumes inflation in the country will rise to a record high of 18.6% in January, which will force the Bank of England and the new Prime Minister to urgently look for ways to save the economy. Meanwhile, official London continues its course towards a decisive refusal to supply energy from Russia: experts note that their imports in July fell to zero for the first time since 1997.​

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AUDUSD
The AUDUSD pair shows a short-term uptrend against the background of the closing of part of long positions on the US currency, as traders prepare for the start of the annual symposium of central banks representatives in Jackson Hole and the speech of the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, in particular. In addition, today the markets are waiting for the publication of updated data on the dynamics of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter. Forecasts suggest some improvement compared to the previous estimate from –0.9% to –0.8%, which, however, is unlikely to noticeably affect the upcoming decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates in September. The American economy shows resilience, and also does not suffer from interruptions in energy supplies as much as the European one. It is possible that this will allow the regulator to maintain a record pace of 75 basis points of rate hikes to further combat high inflation.​

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USDJPY
The US dollar is declining, retreating from local highs, updated earlier in the week. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions in anticipation of the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as part of the symposium starting today in Jackson Hole, hoping to get hints on further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy. To date, analysts estimate the likelihood of an interest rate hike in September by 50 basis points and by 75 basis points about the same. In addition, market participants hope that the Fed Chairman will comment on the prospects for tightening the existing parameters in the face of worsening forecasts for the energy crisis. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan published today does not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Meanwhile, Corporate Service Price Index corrected from 2.0% to 2.1% in July from a forecast of 2.2%, Foreign Bond Investment fell by 79.2 billion yen for the week ended August 19 after a record increase of 1154.7 billion yen over the previous period, and Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks for the same period fell from 45.3 billion yen to 28.5 billion yen.​

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XAUUSD
Gold prices show a weak growth, testing the level of 1755.00. Activity on the instrument remains quite low, as market participants are waiting for comments from the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, regarding monetary policy. In addition, investors would like to hear updated agency forecasts regarding the economic outlook, as the situation with inflation remains quite difficult. Moreover, the energy crisis, which is particularly visible in Europe, seems to be getting worse. With the approach of cold weather, it becomes obvious that the price of energy is unlikely to start to decline, which will cause increased consumer dissatisfaction. In turn, gold is gaining support in the market as a safe asset.​

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[VGytis]

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