Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
Hey Folks:
Last week we saw a general risk adverse market trend developing on the back of Bernanke's speech which indicated further quantitative easing is desired. Then on Thursday, despite Trichet confirming a July ECB rate hike, market chose to focus on the negative, which is the future of Greece. With Germany adamantly calling for private sector involvements in future Greece bailouts, Trichet and ECB's stance is just the opposite. It seems that the June 20 finance ministers meeting in EU will not end with definitive answers for the sovereign debt issues in Greece, thus market is reacting with lack of confidence to the Euro.
In Asian currency front, we saw further strengthening in the Kiwi following RBNZ Bollard's rather surprisingly positive statements... It is my view that NZDUSD may reach the 0.8500 level until we see support to the upside, thus making Kiwi perhaps one of the hottest currency to be LONG. Japanese Yen also gained strength on the back of risk aversion sentiment, however with BOJ and other central Banks looking to intervene on any "disorderly" market movements, I believe JPY will weaken in the coming weeks. AUD suffered on the back of disappointing Employment Data and stronger NZD. The AUDNZD pair has lost more than 2% since the RBNZ Rate Decision, this may be the new trend for the pair.
We'll be trading 4 news releases and here is the list:
1. Tue June 14, 2011 4:30am NY Time - UK CPI y/y
Historical Chart & Data
2. Tue June 14, 2011 8:30am NY Time - US Core Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
3. Wed June 15, 2011 8:30am NY Time - US Core CPI
Historical Chart & Data
4. Thu June 16, 2011 4:30am NY Time - UK Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
I believe the focus for next week would be the Core Retail Sales out of U.S. as consumer spending makes up 2/3 of the US GDP... a surprise positive release will most likely boost risk appetite sentiment once again,
Thanks,
Last week we saw a general risk adverse market trend developing on the back of Bernanke's speech which indicated further quantitative easing is desired. Then on Thursday, despite Trichet confirming a July ECB rate hike, market chose to focus on the negative, which is the future of Greece. With Germany adamantly calling for private sector involvements in future Greece bailouts, Trichet and ECB's stance is just the opposite. It seems that the June 20 finance ministers meeting in EU will not end with definitive answers for the sovereign debt issues in Greece, thus market is reacting with lack of confidence to the Euro.
In Asian currency front, we saw further strengthening in the Kiwi following RBNZ Bollard's rather surprisingly positive statements... It is my view that NZDUSD may reach the 0.8500 level until we see support to the upside, thus making Kiwi perhaps one of the hottest currency to be LONG. Japanese Yen also gained strength on the back of risk aversion sentiment, however with BOJ and other central Banks looking to intervene on any "disorderly" market movements, I believe JPY will weaken in the coming weeks. AUD suffered on the back of disappointing Employment Data and stronger NZD. The AUDNZD pair has lost more than 2% since the RBNZ Rate Decision, this may be the new trend for the pair.
We'll be trading 4 news releases and here is the list:
1. Tue June 14, 2011 4:30am NY Time - UK CPI y/y
Historical Chart & Data
2. Tue June 14, 2011 8:30am NY Time - US Core Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
3. Wed June 15, 2011 8:30am NY Time - US Core CPI
Historical Chart & Data
4. Thu June 16, 2011 4:30am NY Time - UK Retail Sales
Historical Chart & Data
I believe the focus for next week would be the Core Retail Sales out of U.S. as consumer spending makes up 2/3 of the US GDP... a surprise positive release will most likely boost risk appetite sentiment once again,
Thanks,
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