Weekly review: Gold, USD, EURUSD and Dow Jones


Crude oil prices and precious metals registered solid gains while global stocks ended modestly higher last week after the NFP data. The much-anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report came mixed. The United States announced that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 187k in August, surpassing analysts' expectations of 170k. However, the rise in the Unemployment rate to 3.8% year-over-year, above the forecasted 3.5%.

Attention this week will be on planned central bank meetings. Major central banks, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada, are to hold monetary policy meetings this week. The important economic events to watch are the ISM services PMI, Eurozone GDP and German CPI. Meantime, don't forget the US market is closed on Monday as it is Labour Day (Bank Holiday) in the US.

On the earnings front, the companies scheduled to release their last quarter financial results this week will be Gamestop, ChargePoint, American Eagle and RH.


The precious metal price action remained volatile, the metal ended slightly lower on Friday after staging a strong rally. Gold price bounced back to above 1945 after it found support near the lower trendline. The metal traded with a bid tone for the entire last week, with some weakness seen only on Thursday and Friday. This week, gold investors largely focused on the Federal Reserve policymaker's speech for insights into the central bank's rate hike path.

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Technically the overall momentum remained bullish throughout the first half of the week but seemed limited in its attempts to move higher last 2 trading days. On the downside, $1934 is the immediate support level, followed by $1930. If the metal breaks below $1930, the slump will quickly extend toward the $1920 and $1916 mark. On the flip side, a move above $1954 again will push the metal into a new trading zone, which may offer further buying opportunities until the $1960/65 zones.


The US dollar ended last week on a positive note following the release of mixed US economic data. The DXY initially dropped after the release of the most awaited US jobs data but later regained strong upside momentum supported by better-than-expected ISM manufacturing data. The ISM Manufacturing came in at 47.6, beating both the estimates and the prior reading. Some of the key data points expected to dictate this week's dollar movements include the US ISM services PMI, which is due out on Wednesday and FED policymakers Williams, Bostic and Harker's speech on Thursday.


From a technical perspective, The 103/102.90 area of confluence has recently been held as a firm support, failure to defend the mentioned support levels has the potential to drag the index further towards the 102.40 support zone. On the upper side, in case the pair manages to settle above 104.40, it will continue upside momentum and head towards the next resistance level at 104.70 then 105.


The currency pair continued to swing between losses and gains last week. The currency pair rebounded back to above 1.0900 after hitting a fresh weekly low of 1.0780 on Tuesday. However, the momentum on the upside has slowed down, the market breadth remains intact and there is no indication of profit booking or reversal emerging from the highs. The pair ended with a notable This week, ECB President Lagarde's speech, the movement of the US dollar and the latest inflation number from Germany and the Eurozone GDP are likely to significantly affect the currency pair.


Technically, the euro ended last week near the support trend line of the Ascending Channel. The next movement will depend on whether we have a confirmed retracement or the breakout of the support. On the upper side, the currency pair needs to break and close above 1.0900 to have a chance to develop upside momentum in the medium term. Nevertheless, if it breaks below the support trendline, the slump will quickly extend toward the 1.0730 and 1.0680 marks.


Dow had a choppy week but managed to end green. Although there was a slight rebound, it is clear that traders remain undecided on where to go, which attracts abundant attention from speculators. In general, the situation for the Dow is still unfavourable. Moving ahead, Dow is expected to be under pressure this week due to growing concern about the prospects for the world's second-largest economy and the second estimates showed that the US economy grew less than previously thought in Q2.


Technically, the immediate outlook seems slightly neutral as the latest decline back to 34,000 was met with fresh buying. This week, the first nearest support level is located at 34,700/650 area. In case it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level which is located near 34,500/430. On the upper side, 35,000 will act as an immediate and strong hurdle while 35,200 will be a critical resistance zone because, above this, bulls are likely to dominate.

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