Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,681
Morning guys,
Although price shape has not changed significantly we need to make some notes on the price action that stands right now.
First of all, yesterday market has formed W&R action. In general, this is bearish sign and market mostly keeps valid our scenario with retracement to 1.15.
But, EUR is coming to the moment when time will play against the setup. Well known '3-period" rule tells that if market has not started action due the pattern or setup that has been formed within 3 periods, it could mean that opposite action is near. There 2 sessions have passed and nearest 1-2 days will be critical. If no downside action will start - it will start to look more as bullish dynamic pressure and under level consolidation.
On 4H chart recent spike brings nothing bad, actually we've got another bearish grabber here:
Our setup is still working well, actually. Speaking on yesterday spike... try to follow two simple rules - move stops to breakeven asap and stop placement in excess of harmonic swing. On EUR harmonic swing is 37-40 pips. Optimal stop distance for EUR is approx. 50 pips. When "222" Sell" completed our 3/8 retracement and we called to go short - downward action has happened for 20-25 pips. This is enough to protect position with b/e stops. Placing stop in excess of harmonic swing will let you to avoid occasional fluctuations impact and this kind of W&R action.
Now - let's keep watching, bearish setup is still valid, 2 sessions will be critical. Still, it is possible to take shorts on pullbacks and any bearish continuation patterns. Say, today we could get "222" Sell on a slope of second top...
Although price shape has not changed significantly we need to make some notes on the price action that stands right now.
First of all, yesterday market has formed W&R action. In general, this is bearish sign and market mostly keeps valid our scenario with retracement to 1.15.
But, EUR is coming to the moment when time will play against the setup. Well known '3-period" rule tells that if market has not started action due the pattern or setup that has been formed within 3 periods, it could mean that opposite action is near. There 2 sessions have passed and nearest 1-2 days will be critical. If no downside action will start - it will start to look more as bullish dynamic pressure and under level consolidation.
On 4H chart recent spike brings nothing bad, actually we've got another bearish grabber here:
Our setup is still working well, actually. Speaking on yesterday spike... try to follow two simple rules - move stops to breakeven asap and stop placement in excess of harmonic swing. On EUR harmonic swing is 37-40 pips. Optimal stop distance for EUR is approx. 50 pips. When "222" Sell" completed our 3/8 retracement and we called to go short - downward action has happened for 20-25 pips. This is enough to protect position with b/e stops. Placing stop in excess of harmonic swing will let you to avoid occasional fluctuations impact and this kind of W&R action.
Now - let's keep watching, bearish setup is still valid, 2 sessions will be critical. Still, it is possible to take shorts on pullbacks and any bearish continuation patterns. Say, today we could get "222" Sell on a slope of second top...