Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,664
Morning everybody,
Now, by looking in the hindsight it seems obvious that it was a bearish setup yesterday. Indeed, we've said that bears have advantage, but recall that action has started only when we get PPI and Retail Sales. Until they were released, EUR stubbornly was flirting inside triangle, and definitely we would get different action if numbers were slightly better. In general although both setups were tricky, we correctly have identified critical areas - 4H OP level for bears and 1.09 lows for bulls. In fact, drop was so fast that there were no chances to buy...
At the same time, we can't call it as surprising because it perfectly fits to our long-term bearish patterns. One of them is daily H&S and we just yesterday talked about it:
It seems upside H&S is done, despite that OP has not been touched slightly and now price stands at K-support area:
On 1H chart downside OP is completed with acceleration, which means that downside continuation to XOP is probable.
What are we going to do today? Now to the most interesting things. In fact, today (by close) we could get the pattern that we are waiting for 2nd week - bullish weekly grabber on DXY and bearish one on EUR.
At the same time, daily opposite grabber is possible on DXY as well. It doesn't cancel major scenario but could bring some mess with deep backward pullback.
Taking it all together, we do not consider any long positions. Despite that downside action looks great, we suggest it would be better to start active trading on Monday. Now price stands at 4H K-support area, today is Friday and we need to get 100% confirmation of weekly grabber pattern. Besides, minor upside bounce here also would be welcome. Since rather extended patterns are forming - it is not as vital to step in immediately.
Now, by looking in the hindsight it seems obvious that it was a bearish setup yesterday. Indeed, we've said that bears have advantage, but recall that action has started only when we get PPI and Retail Sales. Until they were released, EUR stubbornly was flirting inside triangle, and definitely we would get different action if numbers were slightly better. In general although both setups were tricky, we correctly have identified critical areas - 4H OP level for bears and 1.09 lows for bulls. In fact, drop was so fast that there were no chances to buy...
At the same time, we can't call it as surprising because it perfectly fits to our long-term bearish patterns. One of them is daily H&S and we just yesterday talked about it:
It seems upside H&S is done, despite that OP has not been touched slightly and now price stands at K-support area:
On 1H chart downside OP is completed with acceleration, which means that downside continuation to XOP is probable.
What are we going to do today? Now to the most interesting things. In fact, today (by close) we could get the pattern that we are waiting for 2nd week - bullish weekly grabber on DXY and bearish one on EUR.
At the same time, daily opposite grabber is possible on DXY as well. It doesn't cancel major scenario but could bring some mess with deep backward pullback.
Taking it all together, we do not consider any long positions. Despite that downside action looks great, we suggest it would be better to start active trading on Monday. Now price stands at 4H K-support area, today is Friday and we need to get 100% confirmation of weekly grabber pattern. Besides, minor upside bounce here also would be welcome. Since rather extended patterns are forming - it is not as vital to step in immediately.
