Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 04 - 08, 2024

[Sive Morten]

Morning folks,

So, due to Houthis attack in Red Sea, it was a bit more volatility yesterday, as dollar has jumped in a moment. But it was short term reaction. On daily chart we do not see that it somehow has hurt overall bullish context. So here we still expect that EUR should try to challenge the K-resistance levels. Other risk factors are in place - today's Powell speech, ECB tomorrow and NFP on Friday... but for now daily picture looks the same:

On 4H chart our setup has worked nice, later price has returned back due Red Sea incident, forming '222" Buy pattern and now it is trying to get back lost positions. So, our H&S is still valid and we're watching for upside breakout. Besides, on DXY we again have grabbers today.

On 1H chart, we do not see something special, market is consolidating near the top of long sideways area, which is also probably could be treated as a bullish sign. It is possible to watch for some patterns, say, it might be upside butterfly as a starting point of upside action. Obviously 1.0840 level remains as local vital area.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

So, EUR accurately keeps our bullish context. Major targets still stand above, as on dollar index as on EUR - around 1.10 area. Yesterday's plan is done well - EUR has broken K-area and now stands near 50% resistance at the eve of ECB meeting.

In fact EUR hits COP target here, so we're at Agreement resistance. Together with ECB it could trigger downside pullback. It would be perfect if EUR holds above neckline of our H&S pattern:

That's why, first it makes sense to watch for ~1.0870 support area as a potential one for long re-entry, if no strong collapse will happen by some reasons (too dovish ECB or something).

 

[RahmanSL]

Morning everybody,

So, EUR accurately keeps our bullish context. Major targets still stand above, as on dollar index as on EUR - around 1.10 area. Yesterday's plan is done well - EUR has broken K-area and now stands near 50% resistance at the eve of ECB meeting.
View attachment 90649

In fact EUR hits COP target here, so we're at Agreement resistance. Together with ECB it could trigger downside pullback. It would be perfect if EUR holds above neckline of our H&S pattern:
View attachment 90650

That's why, first it makes sense to watch for ~1.0870 support area as a potential one for long re-entry, if no strong collapse will happen by some reasons (too dovish ECB or something).
View attachment 90651

Perfect analysis Sive
Here is an intriguing scenario: If Michelle Obama do decide to run, she will easily beat both old men ... one a pathological & habitual liar and unhinged, while the other suffers from dementia and creepy as hell around young girls.... to become the first woman, first woman of color, and first wife of a former USA president to become the President of the USA. How will that affect the economy of the USA?

 

[Sive Morten]

Perfect analysis Sive
Here is an intriguing scenario: If Michelle Obama do decide to run, she will easily beat both old men ... one a pathological & habitual liar and unhinged, while the other suffers from dementia and creepy as hell around young girls.... to become the first woman, first woman of color, and first wife of a former USA president to become the President of the USA. How will that affect the economy of the USA?

Difficult to say. Hardly it makes economy better - she is Democrat. It means that the same elites will be on the back - bankers and globalists. Hardly the person of president makes big changes per se. Besides, at least formally, but she is not nominated it from the party as a candidate... let's see.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

So, yesterday plan has worked nice and today we have mostly the same picture, but the only tricky nuance is NFP. On daily chart market stands near 1.0970 resistance area. DXY has completed OP target, while EUR is not yet, so 1.0988 OP target is still the one to watch:

Unfortunately NFP could bring some mess in performance, but we have two moments that should make it easier. First is, swings structure on 4H chart tells that we now stand in extension swing as retracement after COP is over. Second is - any retracement should be small by the same reason, as reaction on COP is done already. To keep bullish context market has to stay in the range of most recent upside action from 1.0865 area. OP should be used as nearest target.

Thus as yesterday, we consider only two support levels here - 1.0920 and 1.09 K-area. Second one looks more reliable.

Thus, trading plan is relatively simple consider long entry around 1.09-1.0920 with 1.0988 target. No shorts by far. In theory everything looks great but now we need to see what will happen on NFP report...