damn it! i forgot one more thing. important article in the Financial Times:
now, if my understanding is correct, the SNB is accumulating billons of euros that it sells on a regular basis (the article confirms this)... now i am just wondering, if the selling should intensify for whatever reason, then obviously that's another important clue that any upside in e/u should be severely limited.
as to the e/chf peg, i was hoping it might break, but according to that UBS guy, it looks like the SNB is quite capable of keeping it going for months if not years. am just mentioning this because it could be a strategy to go limit short e/chf. if there is a speculative attack against the peg, then > 50 billions in sell stops could be triggered. you can imagine the size of such a move if it ever happens: huge! unfortunately it's a one-off and it could be a long time in coming. nonetheless...
Why the SNB will keep its grip on the franc
quote: '
Moreover, while the SNB is accumulating billions of euros it is also acting to limit its exposure to the eurozone crisis. The central bank actively diversifies its euro reserves into other foreign currencies including the dollar and the pound. '
Source:
Why the SNB will keep its grip on the franc - FT.com
P.S.: crap!! i just tested the link above and now the page is not public anymore. to read it, you'll have to register. think it's free though.