AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx July 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1858
Despite resumption of recent decline to a fresh 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1808 in post-NFP New York, intra-day rebound to 1.1874 due to broad-based long liquidation in the greenback suggests temporary low is made and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store, as long as res at 1.1909/11 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1838 would bring re-test of 1.1808.

Only a daily close above 1.1911 would risk stronger correction towards 1.1944, however, reckon key res at 1.1975 should cap upside.

Data to be released later:
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, building permits, retail sales, Japan services PMI, coincident index, leading indicator, China Caixin services PMI.
France industrial output, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, Sentix index, U.K. Markit services PMI.
U.S. market holiday on Monday.

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AceTraderFx July 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1863
As 1.1880 yesterday has capped euro's rebound from last Friday's 11-week trough at 1.1808, consolidation with downside bias is in store, below 1.1808 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1762/65.

Only a daily close above 1.1884 res may risk stronger retracement to 1.1909/11 but reckon res at 1.0944 should cap upside.

On the data front, germany will kick off with germany's industrial orders, then Zew eco. sentiment n current condition n later EU's retail sales n Zew survey expectations. We have a nu,ber of ECB officials scheduled to speak, pls refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx July 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1821
Euro's intra-day selloff from 1.1894 (Europe) due to broad-based usd's buying and subsequent re-test of last Friday's 11-week trough at 1.1808 in New York suggests recent decline would pressure price towards 1.1762 ahead of release of FOMC minutes, however, near term oversold condition should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (Mar).

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1852 signals temporary low is made and risks re-test of 1.1894, break would bring stronger retracement to 1.1909/11 and possibly towards 1.1944.

On the data front, we have some second-tier eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. ECB Chair of the Supervisory Board Enria will at an event at 07:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx July 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1792
Euro's break of last week's low at 1.1808 (Friday) to a 3-month trough at 1.1782 in New York confirms recent decline has once again resumed and as long as 1.1838 holds, further weakness is envisaged after consolidation, however, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 and risk has increased for a correction to occur later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1838 signals temporary low is in place and would head to 1.1852/56, break, 1.1880/90.

On the data front, we have Germany's export n imports, trader balance n current account. ECB member de Cos will speak at a conference at 10:35GMT.

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AceTraderFx July 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1847
Yesterday's impressive rally from 1.1784 (Asia) to as high as 1.1867 in New York signals recent decline has made a temporary low at Thur's 3-month trough at 1.1782 and as long as 1.1808 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1894, reckon 1.1939/44 should hold.

Only a daily close below 1.1808 suggests correction has ended, then price will be en route to 1.1762 early next week.

The only eco. data due out is Italy's trade balance n industrial output. There is 3-day G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Venice, Italy starting today, pay attention to comment by ECB officials esp speeches by ECB President Lagarde (pls refer to our EI page for details).

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AceTraderFx July 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1870
Euro's gain to 1.1881 in late New York Friday due to return of risk sentiment on rebound in global stocks suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at last Thursday's 3-month trough at 1.1782 and re-test of last week's high at 1.1894 (Tuesday) is now envisaged, near term overbought condition would cap price below minor res at 1.1944 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1826 (Friday's low) signals correction is over and risks weakness towards 1.1808 later.

Data to be released later today:
New Zealand retail sales, Japan corporate goods price, machinery orders.
Canada leading index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx July 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1865
Euro's early rally from last Wednesday's 3-month trough of 1.1782 to 1.1881 (Friday) suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and despite retreat to 1.1837 at New York open on Monday, subsequent rebound has retained near term upside bias for a stronger retracement, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1944.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1826 signals correction has ended, then price would head back towards 1.1782 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand food price index, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, China exports, imports, trade balance.
U.K BRC retail sales, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, France CPI.
U.S. CPI, redbook and Federal budget.

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AceTraderFx July 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1775
Yesterday's break of previous July's 1.1782 low to 1.1773 following intra-day 'wild' swings in New York session suggests price is en route towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 but break there needed to retain weakly bearishness for further losses later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1837 signals temporary low is in place, then risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.1880/90.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
China exports, imports, trade balance, Australia consumer sentiment, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, DCLG house price index, France market holiday, EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, PPI. Canada manufacturing sales and BoC interest rate decision.

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AceTraderFx July 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1832
Despite yesterday's initial re-test of Tue's 3-month trough at 1.1773, subsequent rebound on intra-day falling U.S. yields and then gain to 1.1838 in New York following J. Powell's dovish testimony suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1800 holds, stronger retracement is envisaged, reckon res at 1.1894 would cap upside.

A daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over and price may yield weakness towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia consumer inflation, employment change, unemployment change, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales, GDP, Japan tertiary industrial activity.
Germany wholesale price index, U.K. Claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Italy CPI.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, NAHB market index and Canada ADP employment change.

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AceTraderFx July 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1812
Euro's decline on Thursday from 1.1850 to 1.1793 in New York due to safe-haven usd and yen buying strongly suggests correction from Tuesday's 3-month low at 1.1773 has ended and recent erratic fall would resume after initial consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) and bring minor correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1850 'prolongs' volatile trading above 1.1773 and risks stronger retracement, reckon res at 1.1994 should cap upside and yield retreat early next week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details. Next week's major focus is Thursay's ECB monetary policy meeting and forward guidance which may pave the way for next euro's major move.

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