AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1591
Yesterday's rebound from a fresh 2-week low of 1.1526 (Europe) and then intra-day 'sterling-led' rally to 1.1616 in New York morning suggests euro's recent decline from August's 1.1734 peak has made a temp. low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1649/59 res, break there would encourage for subsequent headway towards 1.1690.

Only below 1.1564 dampens present bullish scenario on euro, however, reckon 1.1526/30 sup would remain intact.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's non-farm payrolls, Germany's ZEW eco. sentiment and current conditions and EU's ZEW eco. sentiment.

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AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1637
Yesterday's rally in NY session on broad-based usd's weakness due to market hopes of U.S./China trade talk suggests early correction from August's 1.1734 peak has ended at Tuesday's 2-1/2 week trough at 1.1526 and upside bias remains for further headway towards 1.1690 after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 1.1565/70 sup, possibly on dovish ECB Draghi's comments at today's post-ECB press conference, suggests correction over and risks weakness to 1.1526/30.

Ahead of ECB's rate decision, we have Germany's final CPI data and the same from France.

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AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1690
Euro's impressive rise from 1.1609 (Europe) to 1.1701 yesterday's due to rally in the Turkish lira as well as soft U.S. CPI data suggests re-test of August's 1.1734 peak would be forthcoming soon after minor consolidation in Asia.
However, loss of momentum should cap price below July's high at 1.1791.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1659 (last week's top, now sup) confirms temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1609.

On the data front, Italy will release CPI, then EU's trade balance and labour costs.
We also have 2 ECB officials delivering speeches during European morning starting ECB Smets in Brussels at 07:00GMT and ECB's Nowotny in Vienna at 08:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1632
Despite last week's strong rise from 1.1526 (Monday) to as high as 1.1722 on Friday in European morning, subsequent selloff to 1.1619 due to renewed usd's strength on trade tensions suggests choppy trading below Aug's peak at 1.1734 would continue with downside bias for retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1565/70, however, 1.1526 should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 1.1685/90 signals pullback is over and yield another rise back towards 1.1722.

On the eco. data front, Italy will release trade balance, then important EU inflation data.
We have 3 ECB officials delivering their speeches today starting with ECB's Coeure 09:00GMT, ECB's Praet at 10:15GMT and ECB's Mersch at 12:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1674
Yesterday's rally from 1.1618 (Europe) to 1.1698 in NY due to renewed usd's weakness suggests pullback from Friday's 4-week high at 1.1722 has ended and re-test of August's peak at 1.1734 is likely after consolidation, break would extend recent upmove to 1.1750/60 later.

Intra-day retreat after Trump announced more trade tariffs on China would bring sideways trading before up and only below 1.1618 shift risks to downside for stronger retracement to 1.1565/70.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia house price index, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK DCLG house price index, New Zealand GDT price index.
Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. redbook, NAHB housing market index.

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AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1666
Despite Tuesday's resumption of recent erratic upmove to a 2-week high of 1.1724 in New York, failure to re-test Aug's peak at 1.1734 and subsequent decline to 1.1652 suggests temporary top is made and consolidation with initial downside bias is in store, as long as sup at 1.1618 holds, gain to 1.1734 is still envisaged, then 1.1750.

A daily close below 1.1718 would shift risk to the downside for subsequent weakness towards 1.1565/70.

Data to release on Wednesday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, BoJ interest rate decision.
EU current account, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, EU construction output.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, current account, building permits, housing starts.

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AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1679
Yesterday's decline from 1.1715 (Europe) to 1.1651 in New York suggests further 'choppy' sideways swings below Tuesday's near 3-week high at 1.1724 would continue with downside bias, below 1.1651 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1618 before prospect of another rebound.

Only above 1.1734 (August peak) would extend Medium Term upmove to 1.1750/55, then towards 1.1791 next week.

On the data front, the only data due out today is EU's September consumer confidence due out at 14:00GMT.
Today is the second day of the 2-day EU summit meeting in Salzburg in Austria. ECB Board member Weidmann will speak in Germany at 15:15GMT and then ECB Chief Economist Praet will speak in New York at 17:20GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1782
Yesterday's break of Aug's 1.1734 high (now sup) to a 2-month peak of 1.1785 in New York due to renewed usd's weakness (except vs yen) suggests price would head to 1.1815/25 after consolidation, overbought condition is expected to cap euro below 1.1852 (June's high) and risk has increased for a correction to take place later.

Only a daily close below 1.1734 confirms temp. top is made, then stronger retracement to 1.1665/70 would be seen.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan national CPI, Nikkei manufacturing PMI, France GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
Canada CPI, retail sales, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.

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AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.71
The greenback's rally above Wednesday's high at 112.45 to 112.58 yesterday, then intra-day rise above this resistance to 112.87 due partly dollar's broad-based weakness suggests upmove from August's trough at 109.78 remains in progress and further gain towards 113.00 would be seen.
However, over bough condition would keep price below daily resistance at 113.17.

On the downside, only below 111.66 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 111.38/40.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light today with Markit September mfg and services PMIs being the only 2 data due out at 13:45GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1747
Despite continuing its recent winning streak to a fresh 3-month peak of 1.1803 in Europe, as intra-day selloff in sterling has led to broad-based usd's strength in New York morning and knocked price to 1.1733, suggesting recent upmove has made a temporary top and 1-2 days of consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 1.1733 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1590/00.

Only above 1.1803 would extend marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below key daily res at 1.1852 today and yield correction.

Pay attention to release of key German Ifo business climate and current conditions data, if bussiness sentiment forecast comes in weaker than forecast (103.2 vs previous reading of 103.80), euro will come another round of selling or long liquidation.

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