AceTraderFx: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Oct 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1751
Although euro has rebounded after yesterday's selloff to an 8-day low at 1.1718 at New York open on active safe-haven usd buying due to potential lockdown in France and Germany as well as selloff in U.S. stocks, as 1.1760 has capped recovery, consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1689 (October's low), break would yield marginal weakness but 1.1650/60 should hold.

On the upside, only above 1.1788 may risk stronger retracement to 1.1800/10, break, 1.1838.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan retail sales, Bank of Japan interest rate decision, consumer confidence, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook NBNZ own activity, Australia export prices, import prices.
Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, ECB refinancing rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE price index, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, pending home sales, and Canada average weekly earnings, building permits.

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AceTraderFx Oct 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1673
Euro's selloff yesterday to a 1-month low at 1.1651 in post-ECB New York suggests correction from September's 8-week trough at 1.1613 has ended at last Wednesday's 1-month high of 1.1880 and re-test of 1.1613 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from September's 2-year 1.2011 peak to 1.1585/90 but 1.1555/60 should hold today.

On the upside, only above 1.1718 indicates temporary low is made and risks gain to 1.1745, then 1.1760

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo core CPI, Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output, construction orders, housing starts, Australia PPI, France GDP, consumer spending, CPI (EU norm), CPI, Germany retail sales, GDP, UK nationwide house price index, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicators, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, CPI (EU norm), GDP, EU HICP, core HICP, GDP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance.

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AceTraderFx Nov 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Nov 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1641
Euro's selloff last week from 1.1864 (Monday) to a 1-month low at 1.1640 Friday due to usd's continued strength suggests correction from September's 1.1613 trough has ended earlier at 1.1880 in October and intra-day brief break of 1.1640 would bring re-test of 1.1613 after consolidation, below would extend decline from September's 2-year 1.2011 peak to 1.1585/90 before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only daily close above 1.1704 indicates temporary trough made, risks gain to 1.1755/60.

Data to be released today:
Australia AIG manufacturing index, building permits, ANZ job advertisements, New Zealand building permits, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Nov 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Nov 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1642
Although euro has rebounded after yesterday's resumption of decline from October's peak at 1.1880 to a 1-month low at 1.1623, as 1.1655 (Europe) has capped recovery, consolidation with mild downside bias is seen, however, loss of momentum should prevent steep drop below September's 1.1613 bottom and yield a much-needed correction.

On the upside, above 1.1656/61 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1704, break, 1.1708, then 1.1758/60.

Although there are no major data from the euro zone today, we have ECB President Christine Lagarde and a couple of other officials scheduled to speak in the Eurogroup meeting at 08:10 GMT.

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AceTraderFx Nov 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Nov 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1699
Although euro's rally yesterday from 1.1634 in Australia to 1.1739 (New York), then 1.1770 (Asia) today suggests decline from October's 1.1880 peak has made a temporary low at Monday's 1-month bottom at 1.1623, intra-day sharp retreat as U.S. election results tighten suggests choppy sideways swings would be seen and 1.1655/56 should contain downside and yield rebound.

On the upside, above 1.1739 would bring re-test of 1.1770, break would extend to 1.1788 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, New Zealand unemployment rate, employment change, labour cost index, China Caixin services PMI.
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, producer prices, UK labour productivity, Markit services PMI.
Canada trade balance, exports, imports, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change, trade balance, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

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AceTraderFx Nov 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Nov 2020 03:20GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1724
Despite yesterday's selloff from 1.1770 and then brief break of September's 1.1613 low to a 3-month trough of 1.1604 in Asia on safe-haven usd buying as U.S. election results tightened, subsequent rise in tandem with rally in global stocks to 1.1745 suggests temporary low is made and as price has rebounded from 1.1681 in New York, consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1770, 1.1787/88.

On the downside, only below 1.1681 risks stronger retracement to 1.1651/56, then 1.1629.

On the calendar front, euro zone will release retail sales MM/YY at 10:00 GMT with street forecasts at -1.0% and 2.8% respectively versus prior readings of 4.4% and 3.7%. Traders should remain cautious on any U.S. presidential election headlines as volatility is expected.

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AceTraderFx Nov 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Nov 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1813
Although euro has retreated after yesterday's rally from 1.1712 (Asia) to a 9-day high of 1.1859 in New York, subsequent rebound from 1.1792 in post-FOMC to 1.1846 in Australia today suggests pullback has possibly ended and intra-day weakness would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise to 1.1880 (October's high), break, 1.1900/10.

On the downside, only below 1.1770 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1740/45, then back to 1.1712/15.

On the calendar front, there is a slew of data from euro zone today, please refer to our EI page for more details. Traders should remain cautious of U.S. election related headlines and development of coronavirus cases.

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AceTraderFx Nov 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Nov 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1888
Despite euro's resumption of decline from September's 2-year peak at 1.2011 to a 3-month bottom at 1.1603 last Wednesday, subsequent erratic rise to a 1-1/2 month high at 1.1890 in New York on Fri, then intra-day brief break there as U.S. Biden wins presidency suggests correction has ended and further headway to 1.1925/30 would be seen after consolidation but 1.1965 should cap upside today.

On the downside, only below 1.1846/52 risks stronger retracement to 1.1792/96, break, 1.1770 before rebound.

On the data, Germany will release exports, imports, trade balance and current account at 07:00 GMT, followed at EU Sentix index at 09:30. Also, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 09:25 GMT via videoconference at the Green Horizon Summit..

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AceTraderFx Nov 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Nov 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1814
Despite euro's resumption of upmove from last Wednesday's 3-month trough at 1.1603 to a 7-week high at 1.1919 in New York morning yesterday, subsequent fall to 1.1796 on usd's broad-based strength due to rise in U.S. yields suggests temporary top is made and stronger retracement to 1.1755/60 would be seen after consolidation but 1.1724 (61.8% r) should hold.

On the upside, only above 1.1880/90 would risk re-test of 1.1919, break may head to 1.1960/65.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Economy Watchers outlook, Economy Waters current, China PPI, CPI, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
UK BRC retail sales, claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, France ILO unemployment rate, industrial output, Italy industrial output, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.

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AceTraderFx Nov 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Nov 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1823
Despite euro's resumption of upmove from last Wednesday's 3-month trough at 1.1603 to a 7-week high of 1.1919 on Monday, subsequent fall to 1.1796 on usd's strength due to rise in U.S. yields, then 1.1781 yesterday suggests temporary top is made and retracement to 1.1760/65 would be seen after consolidation but 1.1724 (61.8% r) should hold, yield rebound.

On the upside, only abv 1.1855/60 would risk gain to 1.1880/90, then possibly 1.1919.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer sentiment, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan machine tool orders.
France market holiday, UK NIESR GDP estimate.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, market holiday, and Canada market holiday.

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