*** AceTraderfx : Daily Market Review and data to be released today ***

[acetraderfx]

Market Review - 08/08/2013 22:27GMT

Dollar rebounds against yen on short-covering

The greenback recovered against yen in New York session on Thursday on short-covering, despite early decline to a fresh 7-week low of 95.81 due to speculation that the recent economic data cannot support the Federal Reserve to reduce its stimulus measures in the near future.

Earlier in Asia, although dollar yen staged a brief rebound to session high at 96.95 in Asian morning, price dropped to 96.10 at European open after Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0.10% and refrained from adding further stimulus measures. Price briefly recovered to 96.47 at New York open, however, a small increase in the U.S. weekly jobless claims pressured price to a fresh 7-week low at 95.81 in New York morning before staging a strong rebound to 96.75 in U.S. afternoon.

U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 333K, versus the expectation of 336K. The previous reading was revised to 328K.

The single currency traded with a firm undertone in Asia and rose above Wednesday's top at 1.3347 to 1.3369 in European morning, helped by the release of better-than-expected Chinese data. Euro continued to ratchet higher on dollar's broad-based weakness and rallied to fresh 7-week high at 1.3401 in New York afternoon.

China exports and imports were reported better-than-exected at 5.1% and 10.9% vs forecasts of 2.0% and 1.0% respectively.

The British pound also traded with an undertone in Asia and rose to 1.5519 in European morning before rallying to an intra-day high at 1.5574 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based weakness.

In other news, BOJ's Kuroda in his post-rate announcement press conference, said 'loosening of fiscal discipline may diminish impact of monetary easing; board members wanted to see more hard data showing improvement in capital expenditure; price trend improving for various goods on robust personal spending; BOJ will take appropriate action if tail risk threatens achievement of BOJ price target.'

On the data front, German trade balance in Jun came in at 16.9B, vs expectation of 14.9B, previous reading is revised to 13.6B. Swiss unemployment rate in Jul came in at 3.2%, same as expectation.

Data to be released on Friday :

Japan tertiary industry index, consumer confidence, China CPI, PPI, industrial production, fixed asset invest urban, retail sales, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy trade balance, CPI, HICP, U.K. trade balance, Canada housing starts, unemployment rate, net change in unemployment, U.S. wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderfx Aug 12: Dollar rebounds on renewed speculation of Fed tapering

Market Review

Data to be released this week : Aug 12 - 16

Monday: Japan GDP, domestic CGPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, France current account, Italy trade balance, Swiss retail sales, U.S. Fed budget.

Tuesday: Australia NAB business confidence, Japan Machinery order, German CPI, HICP, Zew economic sentiment, current condition, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI, EU industrial orders, ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. import price index, export price index, retail sales, business inventories.

Wednesday: Australia consumer confidence, France GDP, HICP, CPI, U.K. BOE MPC minutes, claimant count, unemployment rate, average earning, Germany GDP, EU GDP, Swiss Zew index, U.S. PPI.

Thursday: New Zealand PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. retail sales, U.S. jobless claim, empire state manufacturing, Net LT TIC flows, industrial production, capacity utilization, NAHB housing market index, Philadelphia Fed survey. Financial market in France will be closed for market holiday.

Friday: EU current account, trade balance, CPI, Italy current account, U.S. housing starts, building permits, University of Michigan consumer confidence.


Dollar rebounds on renewed speculation of Fed tapering : 10/08/2013 01:12GMT

The greenback rebounded against majority of its peers except the yen Friday on speculation that its recent weakness was overdone and that the Federal Reserve may indeed start reducing its bond purchases as early as next month.

The single currency traded in a narrow range in Asia and edged higher to session high at 1.3390 at European open, however, failure to re-test Thursday's 7-week top at 1.3401 knocked price lower in European morning. Euro eventually fell to session low at 1.3333 in New York afternoon on dollar's strength.

Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar extended previous day's rebound to 96.97 at Tokyo open, price weakened to 96.33 in Asian morning after a government report showed Japan's national debt exceeded 1000 trillion yen. Despite a brief recovery to 96.81 in European morning, renewed selling pushed the pair lower and price later fell to session low at 96.12 near New York close, weighed down earlier by the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. wholesale inventories.

Japan’s outstanding public debt including borrowings reached a record 1,008.6 trillion yen ($10.46 trillion) as of June 30, up 1.7% from three months earlier.

U.S. wholesale inventories in Jun came in at -0.2% m/m, less than the forecast of 0.4%, previous reading is revised to -0.6%.

The British pound also traded sideways in Asia before edging up to session high at 1.5559 in European morning. However, failure to breach yesterday's high at 1.5574 triggered profit-taking and price retreated to an intra-day low at 1.5497 in New York morning before trading in choppy fashion.

In other news, German EconMin Philipp Roesler said 'economic output probably increased noticeably in second quarter; private consumption and investment in construction likely drove Q2 growth; expects industrial production to continue growing, albeit not too dynamically.'

On the data front, U.K. trade balance in Jun came in at -2.646B, narrower than the expectation of -3.80B, previous reading is revised to -4.09B. Japan consumer confident in Jul came in at 43.6, worse than the expectation of 45.0.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTrader Aug 13: Dollar rises broadly on upbeat U.S. data expectations

Market Review - 12/08/2013 22:24GMT

Dollar rises broadly on upbeat U.S. data expectations

The greenback strengthened against other currencies on Monday as investors bet the U.S. economic data this week will support the Federal Reserve to reduce stimulus sooner rather than later.

Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback dropped initially to 95.93 in Australia due to cross-buying in yen on risk aversion after the release of weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP data (0.6% q/q versus the forecast of 0.9%), the pair rebounded to 96.64 in Asia on comments from Japan's PM Abe. Dollar's broad-based strength lifted dollar to 96.91 in New York morning but price retreated to 96.40 later in the day due to rebound in euro before stabilising.

Japanese Prime Minister Abe said 'economy improving steadily due to government's economic policies since last year; will tackle economy with eye on growth policies towards autumn.'

Although the single currency rebounded from New Zealand low at 1.3315 to 1.3345 in Australia, the pair edged lower to 1.3318 in Asia and then dropped further to 1.3278 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength together with the cross selling of euro versus yen and sterling before staging a recovery on short-covering.

In other currency, despite cable's brief recovery from 1.5486 to 1.5522 in Australia, renewed selling interest pressured the pair and the British pound dropped in tandem with euro to 1.5462 in European morning and then 1.5459 in late New York..

Data to be released on Tuesday:

Australia NAB business confidence, Japan Machinery order, German CPI, HICP, Zew economic sentiment, current condition, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI, EU industrial orders, ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. import price index, export price index, retail sales, business inventories.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTrader Aug 14: Dollar rallies against yen & euro on strong U.S. retail sales data

Market Review - 13/08/2013 22:06GMT

Dollar rallies against yen and euro on strong U.S. retail sales data

The greenback rose strongly against yen and euro on Tuesday as the U.S. retail sales outside of cars, gasoline and building materials rose at its fastest pace in seven months, fueling expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon reduce its stimulus measures.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded with a firm undertone throughout the day. Despite dollar's brief retreat from 97.44 to 97.15 in Asian morning, active cross selling of yen versus other currencies due to the rumour of corporate tax cut in Japan lifted the pair in European session. Dollar's broad-based strength due to the U.S retail sales later pushed the pair further higher to 98.25 in New York morning before easing.

U.S. retail sales and retail sales excluding cars, gasoline and building materials came in at 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, versus the forecast of 0.4% and 0.3%. The previous readings were revised to 0.6% n 0.1% respectively.

The single currency rebounded from Australian low at 1.3289 to 1.3316 in European morning but retreating to 1.3282. Later, despite euro's marginal gain to 1.3317 after the release of better-than-expected German economic sentiment (42.0 versus the forecast of 39.5), the pair nose-dived in New York morning on dollar's strength due to the U.S. retail sales and price eventually hit a 1-week low at 1.3234 before stabilizing in U.S. afternoon.

Although the British pound edged higher in tandem with euro from Asian low at 1.5448 to 1.5482 in European morning, the pair fell to 1.5432 but then staged a strong rebound to 1.5490 after the release of U.K. CPI data, however, price dropped to a low at 1.5427 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength. Later, despite cable's swift rise to 1.5513, renewed selling interest sent the pair to 1.5448 and the pound traded inside the range for the rest of the day.

U.K. CPI in July was released at 0.0% m/m and 2.8% y/y, same as the forecast. U.K. RPI in July came in at 0.0% m/m and 3.1% y/y, same as expectation. ONS house price in Jun came in at 3.1% y/y, lower than the forecast of 3.5%.

In other news, ZEW economist said 'sentiment is highest since March 2013; first signs of end of recession in important euro zone countries may have contributed to indicator's rise; economic optimism is supported by German domestic demand; significant increase for euro zone expectation, good sign that worst of recession might be over; ECB will have more room for earlier increase of interest rates due to calming of crisis; there is a tendency for the Eurozone to get out of recession in Q2.'

On the data front, German CPI in Jul came in at 0.5% m/m n 1.9% y/y, same as expectation. Eurozone industrial production came in at 0.7% m/m and 0.3% y/y, vs the expectation of 1.0% and 0.3% respectively

Data to be released on Wednesday:

New Zealand retail sales, Australia consumer confidence, France GDP, HICP, CPI, U.K. BOE MPC minutes, claimant count, unemployment rate, average earning, Germany GDP, EU GDP, Swiss Zew index, U.S. PPI.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderfx Aug 15 : Euro little changed despite strong GDP in the eurozone & Germany

Market Review - 14/08/2013 22:50GMT

Euro little changed despite strong GDP in the eurozone and Germany

The single currency moved in a tight range on Wednesday despite the fact that eurozone and Germany GDP data beat forecast and showed economy of the area is coming out from recession.

Earlier in the day, euro traded narrowly in Asia and then rose briefly to 1.3280 after the release of better-than-expected German GDP (0.7% q/q and 0.9% y/y versus the forecasts of 0.6% and 0.7%), however, the release of stronger-than-expected eurozone GDP (0.3% q/q and -0.7% y/y versus the forecasts of 0.2% and -0.8%) did not help the pair and euro later dropped to session low at 1.3239 in European morning before staging a rebound to 1.3271 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based weakness due partly to the lower-than-expected U.S. PPI (0.0% m/m and 2.1% y/y versus the expectations of 0.3% and 2.4%).

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback retreated initially from Tuesday's top at 98.34 to 97.87 in Asia but cross selling of yen versus euro lifted the pair above 98.34 to 98.43 in European morning, dollar's broad-based weakness after release of U.S. PPI pressured price to 97.96 in New York morning before recovering.

Although the British pound also traded narrowly in Asian morning and then dropped briefly to 1.5423 in European morning, release of upbeat U.K. jobs data lifted price sharply higher from there to 1.5507 and active cross buying of sterling versus euro later pushed price further to a session high of 1.5549 in New York morning before easing.

U.K. claimant change in Jul came in at -29.2K, much better than the forecast of -15.0K. Unemployment rate remains at 7.8%, same as the expectation.

In other news, BoE minutes showed 'MPC voted 8-1 in favour of forward guidance policy, Weale votes against; BoE's Weale wanted shorter time horizon for 2.5 CPI knock-out clause than 18-24 months; Weale saw "particularly compelling" need to manage risk that guidance pushes up medium-term inflation expectations; show MPC voted 9-0 to keep QE bond purchase total at 375 bln stg; some members still believe case for more QE compelling, but want to gauge impact of guidance before raising asset purchases; show voted 9-0 to keep rates at 0.5%; most members think U.K. short term market interest rates out of line with economic outlook, some do not.'

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, Empire state manufacturing, Net LT TIC flows, industrial production, capacity utilization, NAHB housing market index, Philadelphia Fed survey, Canada existing home sales.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderfx Aug 16 : Dollar drops broadly on weak Philadelphia Fed index

Market Review - 15/08/2013 22:16GMT

Dollar drops broadly on weak Philadelphia Fed index

The greenback surrendered gains versus other major currencies on Thursday as the weaker-than-expected U.S. Philadelphia Fed business condition conflicted with the upbeat jobless claims, muddying the expectations about the withdrawal of the stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve.

Although the single currency rose briefly but strongly to 1.3311 in Asian morning on short-covering and then traded narrowly in European session, the pair fell sharply after the release of better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims (320K versus the forecast of 335K) and then weakened to 1.3206 in New York morning, however, dollar's broad-based weakness due to the disappointing Philadelphia Fed business condition (9.3 versus the expectation of 15.0) prompted the pair to rally sharply higher later in the day and euro climbed back above 1.3300 level to a fresh session high of 1.3363 before easing.

Versus the yen, dollar went through a roller-coaster session on Thursday. Despite a brief but strong rise to 98.30 in Asian morning due to the comments from Japan Finance Minister Aso about corporate tax cut, renewed selling interest pressured the pair to 97.59 near Toyko afternoon. Later, although cross selling of yen versus euro lifted the greenback again in European session and price rose above Wednesday's top at 98.43 to 98.66 in New York morning due to the better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, the weak U.S. Philadelphia Fed business condition knocked price sharply lower later to as low as 97.00 in U.S. afternoon.

The British pound retreated initially from Wednesday's top at 1.5549 to 1.5496 in Australia yesterday, however, cable rose in tandem with euro to 1.5544 in Asia and surged to 1.5595 in European morning after the release of upbeat U.K. retail sales (1.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y, better than the forecast of 0.6% and 2.5%). Later, price dropped sharply to 1.5523 in New York morning due to the better-than-expected U.S. jobless but only to rally to a fresh 7-week peak at 1.5652 in New York afternoon.

In other news, Fed's Bullard said 'financial stability a very important issue for Fed, but does not see a big asset bubble threat at the moment; 'yields still low in historic terms despite recent rise, although higher yields are a concern; momentum in U.S. housing market should be strong enough to overcome higher mortgage rates; tapering by a small amount at first wud be taken as signal by markets on pace of reduction in bond purchase.'

On the data front, U.S. CPI came in at 0.2% m/m n 2.0% y/y, same as the expectations. U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization were released at 0.0% and 77.6%, versus the expectations of 0.4% and 78.0% respectively. NAHB house market index came in at 59, versus the forecast of 57.

Data to be released on Friday :

EU current account, trade balance, CPI, Italy current account, U.S. housing starts, building permits, University of Michigan consumer confidence.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderfx Aug 19, 2013 : Euro pares gain on Friday due to profit-taking

Market Review - 17/08/2013 06:35GMT

Data to be released this week:

Monday: Japan Trade balance, import, export, leading indicator, U.K. Rightmove house price.

Tuesday: Australia RBA minutes, Japan all industry index, Germany PPI, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. Chicago Fed index, retail sales.

Wednesday: Australia leading indicator, U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, CBI distribute trades, U.S. existing home sales.

Thursday: Japan machine tools orders, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France manufacturing PMI, service PMI, German manufacturing PMI, service PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, service PMI, Canada CPI, U.S. jobless claims, Markit PMI, house price index, leading indicators.

Friday: Germany GDP, export, import, U.K. GDP, BBA mortgage approvals, EU consumer confidence, Canada CPI, U.S. new home sales.

Euro pares gain on Friday due to profit-taking

The single currency erased its recent gain against the dollar on Friday as investors closed their previous long positions below 1.3400 level after the rally on Thursday.

Although the single currency edged lower from Thursday's top at 1.3363 to 1.3326 in European morning, the pair penetrated 1.3363 to session high at 1.3380 in New York morning due to dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of weak U.S. housing starts and building permits (5.9% and 2.7%, less than the forecasts of 7.7% and 2.9% respectively) but only to retreat to 1.3312 later in the day on weekend adjustment.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rebounded strongly from Thursday's low at 97.00 to 97.56 in Asian morning. However, the pair ratcheted lower to 97.27 in Europe and then 97.19 in New York morning after the release of weak U.S. housing starts and building permits before staging a rebound to 97.78.

The British pound retreated from Thursday's top at 1.5652 in tandem with euro and dropped to 1.5618 in European morning before renewed buying interest pushed the pair above 1.5652 to a fresh 7-week top at 1.5657 in New York morning, however, profit-taking pressured price later and cable fell
to 1.5608 and then moved narrowly in U.S. afternoon.

On the data front, U.S. University of Michigan consumer index came in at 80.0, worse than the forecast of 85.2. Euro zone trade balance in Jun came in at 17.3B, previous reading was revised to 14.5B. CPI Final in Jul was released at -0.5% m/m and 1.6% y/y, same as forecast.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderfx Aug 20 : Euro rises on hawkish comments from Bundesbank

Market Review - 19/08/2013 21:41GMT

Euro rises on hawkish comments from Bundesbank

The single currency strengthened in European session on Monday as German's Bundesbank did not ruled out to raise the interest rates in future due to high inflation.

Although the single currency traded narrowly in Asia and dropped briefly to 1.3315 in European morning, the pair rose strongly to 1.3375 due to the news that Germany's Bundesbank said it did not rule out higher interest rates to curb inflation, however, failure to penetrate last Friday's top at 1.3380 prompted profit-taking and price later retreated to 1.3334 near New York close.

Bundesbank said 'expects German economy to return to normal, steady growth rate in H2; German inflation likely to ease somewhat over next few months; ECB forward guidance not an unconditional commitment, monetary policy still dependent on medium-term inflation outlook.'

Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar's retreat from 97.85 to 97.36 in Asian morning, price rose strongly to 98.08 in Europe on active cross selling of yen versus other currencies. The pair later edged higher to 98.13 in New York morning but only to retreat to 97.47 near New York close.

Although the British pound traded narrowly in Asia and dropped briefly to 1.5610 in European morning, renewed buying interest emerged there and price rose above last Friday's top at 1.5657 to a fresh 7-week high at 1.5674 before trading sideways in New York session.

Data to be released on Tuesday:

Australia RBA minutes, Japan all industry index, Germany PPI, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. Chicago Fed index, retail sales.