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Daily commodities analysis

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by mariorot, May 15, 2012.

  1. mariorot

    mariorot Recruit

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    Hi, my name is Mario and i will be posting about commodities. I hope you will find it interesting. Thanks.

    Gold Falls as Investors Buy Dollars

    Gold investors are the least optimistic in 5 weeks as due to political problems in Europe. All gains of 2012 have been lost recently as investor turn to USD seeing stronger-than-expected US economic growth.

    Gold had risen 14% percent to $1,792.70 by Feb. 28 on the Comex in New York, before falling to $1,585 today.

    Bullion reached a record $1,923.70 in September 2011. Prices have since fallen as as the USD became the safehaven asset. Barclays lowered its 2012 forecast by 8 percent to $1,716 yesterday because of political problems and mounting debt in Europe and concern that Asian (especially Chinese) economy growth will continue to slow.


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  2. mariorot

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    Iraq Oil Output Looks to Exceeds Iran – First Time In 24 Years

    Iraq is pumping out oil at the highest rate since Saddam Hussein’s era. This production is being led by foreign partners like Exxon Mobil and British Petrolium. They are developing new oil fields and renovating older wells.

    The country produced 3.03 million barrels a day in April, 7.7 percent more than in March, while Iranian production declined to 3.2 million barrels a day, according to OPEC. Iraq’s output last surpassed Iran’s in 1988, after the countries ended their brutal eight-year war.

    Iraq isn’t finished yet, and is seeking to still double oil output by 2015. Soon Iraq will overtake Iran as OPEC’s second-largest producer as sanctions cripple crude production in Iran.

    With rising oil production from Libya and Saudi Arabia, Iraq’s recovery is helping alleviate concern that a European Union blockage on Iranian oil in July will squeeze and constrict global supply. Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and the prospect of embargos on its oil exports pushed Brent crude to a 3½ year high of $128.40 a barrel on March 1. Brent Crude Oil fell as low as $111.40 today.

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  3. mariorot

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    Lead is at a year-low currently, but poised to rise on global shortages. Demand for lead has gone up every year for the past 5 years as the metal is a crucial part of industrial batteries.

    Wolrdwide stockpiles dropped 7.6% since October 2011 when lead prices reaches an all-time high. Analysts estimate that prices will rise 13% before the end of the year to about $2,273 per ton as supply struggled to meet demand.

    Demand is coming largely from the industrial sector and the high-tech markets as a major component of batteries. However demand is outpacing supply by 150,000 tons per year. This gap will rise further as a major Canadian mine run by Xstrata (XTA) will close next year as its deposits are exhaused. The company will focus on new, more profitable mines.

    Currently only China is developing new lead mines.

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  4. mariorot

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    Battle At OPEC Over Output
    Jun 14, 2012

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is meeting today in Vienna, Austria to discuss current output levels. However there is already a big disagreement over whether the current levels should be raised or lowered.

    Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates want output limits to be raised by 500,000 barrels per day, however Iraq, Angola, and Venezuela believe there is an oversupply and want it lowered. Countries who’s regimes are almost solely supported by their oil revenues want the price to rise to make as much money as they can as fast as they can, while the countries who want higher supply (and therefore lower price) are focusing on long-term global economic growth and not the survivability of their own regimes.

    The discussions also center around the pending European Union boycott of Iranian oil coming into force on July 1.
    Abdalla El-Badri, secretary-general to OPEC, said in Vienna today that “there is some oversupply in the [crude oil] market”.
    OPEC sets supply quotas to try to stabilize prices as high as they can without hurting economic growth. Their current limit is 30 million barrels per day, however current output is actually around 31.9 million barrels per day exceeding their ceiling limits and at a 4-year high in output

    Battle At OPEC Over Output
     

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