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Dumping the USD in 2010

Discussion in 'General Forex Talk' started by Eric Alyea, Nov 23, 2009.

  1. Eric Alyea

    Eric Alyea Master Sergeant

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    Dumping the USD in 2010

    Gold is going up and real assets in Thailand and Vietnam and China.
    I fought in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Rhodesia lost in all.
    I think I can make some money back on the 1st two, Vietnam, Thailand, and throw in China.
    The USD is going down the swirl of the toilet bowl.
    What are your views?
     
  2. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    There are 2 large and unpleasant scenarios.

    1. The second leg of the recession triggers a cascade failure that's too fast to stop. That causes Great Depression II. In this case, having lots of dollars on hand would be a very good thing.

    2. The second leg of the recession is shallow, and the economy begins to pull out. Then, all the money pumped into banks to create solvency creates a glut of liquidity. Money is plentiful and cheap. This is great - until hyperinflation sets in. Under those circumstances, having gold and silver on hand would be a good thing.

    Personally, my safe is stuffed with a mixture of currencies, including Chinese RMB (CNY) as well as metals.

    Feeling paranoid and want to prepare for the worst case? If so, I wrote something you might find interesting:

    http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-basics-boot-camp/3033-wealth-protection.html
     
    #2 Pharaoh, Nov 23, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2009
  3. Ricex

    Ricex Sergeant

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    For me it's a complicated picture at the moment for the USD. To be honest I don't think anybody knows what is going to happen when the stimulus package runs dry, we have inflationists and deflationists all over and everybody wants to be proven right.

    One thing that is glaringly obvious to everybody though is unemployment, a loss of 7.3 million jobs since the end of 2007 is going to impact somewhere down the line, how lucky they are to get an extra $25 and a 33 week extension to their misery.

    I don't think the dollar is dead, seriously ill most certainly, but not dead, don't go ordering the coffin just yet.

    What scares me the most is this seemingly inevitable lemming like stupidity of humans to repeat their mistakes over and over, the bankers rhetoric of 'we must change' rings so so hollow. Heard it before, and I've still got the t-shirt.
     
  4. Dollar-Reaper

    Dollar-Reaper Private, 1st Class

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    So you think that is scary?

    Well I don't know if I would be wanting to hold on to that many Dollars, I am going to favour caution. I hear a lot of talk all over the market, especially from the East about fake gold that was used to pay US debts.

    I have tried to search the web for some clue as to what is going on, there is something happening out there it is just being kept very quite. There is talk about hundreds of millions of oz’s of fake gold that is now sitting in bank vaults all over Britian, Asia and Europe.

    Today I had a breakthrough I came across this article on the web, which is scary! http://www.infowars.com/gold-market-breakdown/ has anyone else heard anything? I would love to hear your take on this. If it is true, they will not be able to keep it under raps for long.
     
  5. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    It's hard to predict which is the greater threat - hyperinflation or Depression level deflation. Sir Pips said he thought we'd do something in the Depression direction first, followed by hyperinflation.

    The advantage of splitting one's savings between metal and cash is that in a Great Depression scenario, metals may plummet, but cash will more than double in value. In a hyperinflation scenario, cash may plummet, but metal values will more than double. I like to think of it as industrial grade hedging.

    Interesting article at InfoWars. I've heard rumors of gold encased (not plated - plating is too easy to detect) tungsten, but really doubt that the bars in Fort Knox are subject to this. Since ONLY the US Gov't knows how many there are, they could always just sell all that gold and then keep telling us that there are hundreds of tons of it safely in the vaults. We've got no way to check on whatever numbers we're being given.
     
  6. Dollar-Reaper

    Dollar-Reaper Private, 1st Class

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    Pharaoh,
    Mmmm, takes a lot of balls to mention the names he is mentioning in the article, I can't see someone getting away with loose talk around those names in the US.
    So the best is to play it safe, as you say hold some currency (but not USD and hold some melts). Darn I wish I had paid more attention when the old folk spoke about the great depression. Non perishable foods, diamonds, medicines all become valuable tradable commodities, but what do you trade them for, useless money, or gold that is only going to come into it's own after the worst is over? Protecting what you have I recall them saying was a problem, desperate people do desparate things.
     
  7. Eric Alyea

    Eric Alyea Master Sergeant

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    hard times currency is fuel and ammunition

    Food, Fuel, & ammunition the basis of trade in hard times.
    The only thing that I know that doesn’t depreciate and the you need and is highly tradeable in hard times is firearms and ammunition. Just look at those sales ratios and stocks in the firearms district.
    A Hoover dinner was turnips and rabbit. You trapped the rabbit to save your ammunition for larger stuff. I prefer a precision crossbow now. I don’t wake the neighbors and can reuse the arrow.
    Gold and Guns the building blocks of any economy.

    Things aren't that bad all you have to do is go with the winner (follow the charts). I just think the USD has to heal some injuries. It is going to be entertaining. I will definitely learn to master stop-loss when I do go with USD.
     
    #7 Eric Alyea, Nov 25, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2009
  8. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    Preparing for a full scale economic and/or government collapse is a little beyond my usual writings. In that sort of scenario, you need to consult some of the better survivalist websites.

    Overall, I think the USA is going to survive, but we should all be ready for rough economic waters ahead. Since I live in the tropics, I like to be fully prepared for a hurricane (or typhoon when I'm in China). No matter what happens to the economy, natural disasters happen.

    There's no reason not to set aside at least a couple of weeks worth of non-perishable food and water. In the event of any serious natural disaster, a pile of money won't feed you or your family. You don't have to buy it all at once. Buy one extra day's worth of food each week and put it in storage. It will only take 14 weeks to get that two week supply. If you feel worried about larger issues (like full scale economic failures), just keep adding to your stockpile.
     

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