EUR / USD Better off at the casino?

irongoose

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Seemed to me love him or hate him Draghi did a lot of double talking at the ECB press conference today,but after the EUR went up earlier in the day even before the rates announcement during the press conference the EUR took off again like an apollo space launch!! The EUR was close to the rising trend line on the daily chart and obviously taking a Buy on the EUR / USD would have been the thing to do.

Other times this past year we've also seen bad numbers come out on the EUR yet it continued to rise against the dollar.

With these things in mind I believe the EUR/USD warrants the question .........Are you better off at the casino then to try and trade this pair?

Your thoughts and comments please.
 
I believe it's that time of month where some EU members country need money to make payroll. And what better way to get the necessary funds than to mumble some C&B story and...behold!...the Euro rises from the ashes and millions and even billions are generated instantly.

The US need cash to make payroll too? No problem! Mumble some C&B story and they even have enough excess instant cash to finance some of their overseas covert operation.

So, what to believe anymore??

I have given up trying to day trade that pair some time back since it has destroyed quite a number of my trading accounts....now I only trade it when they are at the extreme high or low level coz I know either the USA or the EU will manipulate the currency sooner or later in their favor and will cause the pair to fall or to rise with no apparent logic.
 
RahmanSL I to have lost good amounts of money on this pair, today was not one of those days because I have learned also that one of the worse times to trade the EUR/USD is when Draghi talks!!!!
 
Read about this trader's gamble on the EUR/USD and how he felt about shorting the pair before it went up and what happened to him.

Fibonacci Short on EUR/USD? - Trade Closed | Forex Blog: Pick of the Day

These were some of the things coming across my Headline in MT4 during the ECB press conference this morning I hope they will be helpful in understanding things and learning.

ECB'S DRAGHI - INFLATION EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 2 PCT THIS YEAR
DRAGHI BEGINS NEWS CONFERENCE AFTER ECB LEFT INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.75 PCT
DRAGHI - OUR MONETARY POLICY STANCE IS ACCOMMODATIVE
DRAGHI - BALANCE SHEET ADJUSTMENT, PERSISTENT UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO WEIGH ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
ECB'S DRAGHI - ECONOMIC WEAKNESS IN EURO ZONE EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO 2013
DRAGHI - ESSENTIAL FOR GOVERNMENTS TO REDUCE FISCAL, STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES
ECB'S DRAGHI - DOWNSIDE RISKS TO ECONOMY RELATED TO SLOW REFORMS, GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES
ECB'S DRAGHI - SEE DOWNSIDE RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ECB'S DRAGHI - SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN FINANCIAL MARKET CONFIDENCE
DRAGHI - FINANCIAL MARKET CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED FURTHER
DRAGHI - SEVERAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS HAVE BROADLY STABILISED AT LOW LEVELS
DRAGHI - INFLATION RISKS ARE BROADLY BALANCED
DRAGHI - DOWNSIDE INFLATION RISKS FROM WEAKER THAN EXPECTED ECONOMY, UPSIDE RISKS FROM TAXES, OIL PRICES
DRAGHI - TO LARGE EXTENT, SUBDUED LOAN DYNAMICS REFLECT CURRENT BUSINESS CYCLE
DRAGHI SAYS ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION WAS UNANIMOUS
DRAGHI, EXPLAINING DECISION TO HOLD RATES, SAYS BOND YIELDS, CDS ARE MUCH LOWER; STOCK MARKETS HAVE INCREASED
EURO CLIMBS TO ONE-WEEK HIGH VS DOLLAR
2013.01.10 13:45:08 BUND FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES AFTER DRAGHI COMMENTS, LAST 55 TICKS DOWN ON DAY AT 143.03
DRAGHI - SEEN STRONG CAPITAL INFLOWS INTO EURO ZONE
DRAGHI-DON'T WANT TO COMMENT SPECIFICALLY ON CRITERIA FOR IRELAND ACCESS TO OMT
EURIBOR FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES AS DRAGHI SPEAKS
ECB'S DRAGHI - YOU NEED TO SEE SIGNS OF RECOVERY BEFORE EXIT
DRAGHI-WE STILL SEE SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FRAGMENTATION IN EURO AREA
ECB'S DRAGHI - ASKED IF ECB THINKING OF EXIT PLAN, SAYS NO
SPOT GOLD RISES 0.8 PCT, HITS SESSION HIGH AT $1,671.50/OZ
DRAGHI - UNANIMOUS DECISION IMPLIES NO REQUEST FOR RATE CUT TODAY
DRAGHI - LACK OF CAPITAL IN BANKS HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
DRAGHI -WE WILL SEE BETTER CREDIT CONDITIONS THIS YEAR
DRAGHI - WE ARE PLEASED THAT EURO ZONE TAIL RISKS ARE BEING REMOVED
ECB'S DRAGHI - ASKED IF ECB COULD DO MORE LONG-TERM OPERATIONS, SAYS WE BELIEVE FUNDING CONDITIONS NOW ARE SATISFACTORY
DRAGHI -SEE A NORMALISATION OF CERTAIN CONDITIONS
ECB'S DRAGHI - NOT SEEING EARLY, STRONG RECOVERY
DRAGHI -DON'T SEE ANY RISKS OF EXUBERANCE
ECB'S DRAGHI - SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE MIGHT HAVE SIGNS OF EXUBERANCE INCLUDE SOME VALUATION OF PRIVATE EQUITY DEALS
DRAGHI - NATIONAL BANKING SUPERVISORS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE, INTRUSIVE
DRAGHI - WELCOME RECENT AGREEMENT ON BASEL III LIQUIDITY RULE EASING
DRAGHI -UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMY ARE IMPORTANT IN OUR ASSESSMENT OF PRICE STABILITY

DRAGHI - FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES ARE VERY IMPORTANT ELEMENT IN PRICE STABILITY
DRAGHI - REAL AND EFFECTIVE EURO EXCHANGE RATES AT LONG-TERM AVERAGE
DRAGHI - ASKED IF ECB COULD DO FUNDING FOR LENDING SCHEME, SAYS LTRO'S AND COLLATERAL RULE EASING VERY SIMILAR TO BOE POLICY
DRAGHI -PRESENT SITUATION CHARACTERISED BY HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DRAGHI - SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN ALL EURO ZONE COUNTRIES
DRAGHI - THERE IS POSITIVE CONTAGION WHEN THINGS GO WELL
DRAGHI -POSITIVE CONTAGION IS IN PLAY NOW
 
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I think the better question is "What is the winning probability of my trading strategy?"

Even though the market is unpredictable at times, the odds of winning lies in your trading strategy, not the chances of the market behaving the way you expect it to. You cannot control the market but you can always control when to enter and exit the market based on your strategy. This is good news because you may adjust your strategy to increase your odds of winning.

As for casino, the house will always win if you play in the game long enough.
 
Feb 7,2013

Did you guess right today?

As I'm sure some of you know"Draghi The Account Slayer" has spoken today, the question is are you one of those people that is making plans to take your best partner out tonight for a lobster dinner or are you one of the ones that will be standing at a busy street corner about this time tomorrow holding a sign that says "I'll work for food"????
 
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Any time the head of a central bank is about to open his mouth is usually a good time to be flat on related currencies.
 
WOW the Euro/USD has dropped from 1.3448 in the last 7 hours to 1.3375 ! Ouch!! if you guessed wrong.

The Euro/USD never ceases to amaze me anymore, not to long ago when this pair was up around 1.3700 there was talk about it going to 1.4000!

Just gos to show you can't believe everything you hear.

My advice to everyone is unless your a seasoned trader with this pair stay away!!!! And even if you are you might want to stay away. LOL!!
 
It's not just the Euro. The dollar is showing surprising strength. Check the daily charts for XAGUSD and XAUUSD.
 
The USD has been steadily in decline for a number of years...it will never get back to where it once was
 
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