EUR/USD Daily Video, 02 May 2017

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Although we have bearish long-term view on EUR, on current week as rush around France elections becomes hotter, we think that EUR could reach 1.0980 level:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Brett Reynolds]

I was thinking exactly the same scenario today...about the Gap for Monday open.!? ;-)

 

[Joh]

Good morning,

Although we have bearish long-term view on EUR, on current week as rush around France elections becomes hotter, we think that EUR could reach 1.0980 level:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

Hi Sive,
On the news here in sleepy Perth, it stated that Fillon the person that dropped out of the political French race has now pledged his 7 million votes ( i assume with the 7 million voters permission) to Marine Le Pen. If this is correct i wonder what difference it will make, yesterday Macron position was 64% and Le Pen 34% - what % do you now foresee with her getting the extra 7 million more votes?
As you wrote it is getting hotter!

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
On the news here in sleepy Perth, it stated that Fillon the person that dropped out of the political French race has now pledged his 7 million votes ( i assume with the 7 million voters permission) to Marine Le Pen. If this is correct i wonder what difference it will make, yesterday Macron position was 64% and Le Pen 34% - what % do you now foresee with her getting the extra 7 million more votes?
As you wrote it is getting hotter!

Hi Joh,

Fillon was third on 1st round and this is approximately 20% of voting auditory, Melenchon - 19%.
Actually, I mostly thought on "Undecided persons" + Melenchon voters. Together they stand for ~ 30-40%. My thought is Melenchon voters mostly gravitate to Le Pen program, as Melenchon mostly represents "communist" direction. After first round I've read that Fillon said that he called to vote for Macron... but you tell opposite...Interesting turn. If Fillon and Melenchon voters will join Le Pen - she will get more chances on presidency...

As we come closer to 2nd round, the degree of uncertainty is growing. This is mostly stands in favor of Le Pen. Macron looks nervous... He has no political program actually and he is a logical continuation of Sarkozi and Hollande policy. It makes me think that his victory chances are intentionally overestimated in press, TV and polls.

Once we've touched the sub of Macron's presidency in our weekly research. Here a lot of contradictive moments. Macron belongs to Rothchild, this is obvious. H. Clinton who represents neocons and the same Rothchild global policy has lost elections. Following this logic - Macron also should loose. But... we do not see any compromising evidence in mass media. This could mean only two things - either Macron a part of big geopolitical deal, or some information attack will happen right before 2nd round, in moment, when he will not have time to reply...

 

[Joh]

Hi Joh,

Fillon was third on 1st round and this is approximately 20% of voting auditory, Melenchon - 19%.
Actually, I mostly thought on "Undecided persons" + Melenchon voters. Together they stand for ~ 30-40%. My thought is Melenchon voters mostly gravitate to Le Pen program, as Melenchon mostly represents "communist" direction. After first round I've read that Fillon said that he called to vote for Macron... but you tell opposite...Interesting turn. If Fillon and Melenchon voters will join Le Pen - she will get more chances on presidency...

As we come closer to 2nd round, the degree of uncertainty is growing. This is mostly stands in favor of Le Pen. Macron looks nervous... He has no political program actually and he is a logical continuation of Sarkozi and Hollande policy. It makes me think that his victory chances are intentionally overestimated in press, TV and polls.

Once we've touched the sub of Macron's presidency in our weekly research. Here a lot of contradictive moments. Macron belongs to Rothchild, this is obvious. H. Clinton who represents neocons and the same Rothchild global policy has lost elections. Following this logic - Macron also should loose. But... we do not see any compromising evidence in mass media. This could mean only two things - either Macron a part of big geopolitical deal, or some information attack will happen right before 2nd round, in moment, when he will not have time to reply...

Or like the Trump and Clinton saga, the 'press' did not read the situation correctly (or acted as if they did not read it) as they did not believe or wanted Trump could win. This may be the same with Le Pen that the Press do not want her to win, forgetting the people vote whom they want. Macron like Clinton may get side lined, pity as Macron does not have the unsavoury history of Clinton, he is a new, fresh and yes inexperienced voice and the opposite to him looks daunting to me to say the least, the ramifications will be huge.