European Forex Professional Weekly 2010-01-14

[Sive Morten]

I understand, we've talked about the same thing but with different words.
You're right, concerning earnings report that will be particular interesting (although I'm not intend to invest in equities in near term).
I think that the most interesting will be banking sector reports and Credit card deliquences information. I expect that JPM will show better than expected earnings.
But I'm not sure that only reports can influence EUR/USD. Today's data was also in a row with expectation and showed growth. Dollar gain not only from domestic improvements but from problems in EU and other countries also.

My tight short-term level of 1.4420 was broken, it means that weekly bearish trend should continue in nearest term, so I will be looking for enter short.

Gold moving in a row with EUR/USD. Also potentially bearish signal on a weekly Crude oil, may be I'll enter on the next week. But, the moving of US Treasuries confusing me a bit. That's why I thought that it can be another up move...

 

[Sentinel]

EURUSD and Gold Daily DEMA is about to turn bearish. If this occurs both daily and the weekly trends will be down.

 

[Sive Morten]

Well, I have a sleeping short order around 1.4420, but possibly market will not reach it, because 1.4400 - Confluence and agreement resistance.
On 1.4420 agreement and hourly ovebought level, so it's very suitable for shorting.

On gold and Crude Oil I'm already short now on a weekly basis. (relatively long-term). But possibly, on crude oil there will be additional oportunity to enter short around 80$ (March contract).

Sive.

 

[Sentinel]

Well, I have a sleeping short order around 1.4420, but possibly market will not reach it, because 1.4400 - Confluence and agreement resistance.
On 1.4420 agreement and hourly ovebought level, so it's very suitable for shorting.

On gold and Crude Oil I'm already short now on a weekly basis. (relatively long-term). But possibly, on crude oil there will be additional oportunity to enter short around 80$ (March contract).

Sive.

Thanks Sive.. I am glad that you share your trades with us.

On Gold, I only able to open one contract since the stoploss you mentioned is too wide for me. (I limit myself with %2 of my money for each trade with 1/10 levereage.)

On EURTRY & USDTRY pairs, we are still waiting for the IMF standby agreement and I am not quite sure how the Turkish market will react this news since it has been bought several times by the market after it was first rumoured last year.

 

[Sive Morten]

On Gold, I only able to open one contract since the stoploss you mentioned is too wide for me. (I limit myself with %2 of my money for each trade with 1/10 levereage.)

Well, it's a weekly trend, so the right stops usually far a bit. But you can trade shorter trends. My positions basically long term.

Concerning 2% rule - it's simple and wise.

On EURTRY & USDTRY pairs, we are still waiting for the IMF standby agreement and I am not quite sure how the Turkish market will react this news since it has been bought several times by the market after it was first rumoured last year.

Unfortunately I do not track this pair and really can't help.

 

[Sentinel]

Unfortunately I do not track this pair and really can't help.

I know, just wanted to share my situation and the reason why I couldn't open a EUR short position.

But today, seeing that it is too close to the 1.4420 confluence I opened a EUR short position since SL is too tight and loss amont is sacrificable.

I am now both short on Gold and EUR.

 

[Sive Morten]

Nice enter, Sentinel. Looks like forecast was correct and you're already earn about 100+ pips.

My sleeping order was 1.4420, but unfortunately it wasn't touched a bit.
And I was out of the office. But this is not the end - will try to enter on retracement later...

 

[Sentinel]

1) Market closed below Weekly confluence level.
2) Daily, Weekly trends are bearish.
3) We are now at OS level.

What is your opinion Sive? Wait for a retracement to normal OB/OS level for a new short?

 

[Sive Morten]

What is your opinion Sive? Wait for a retracement to normal OB/OS level for a new short?

Well, dealing with OB/OS is allways as slice and dice. But very possible that housing data today will be anemic. I indend to enter on a short side, so there are 2 possible levels:
1.4250-1.4260 - hourly Confluence. This level is mostly probable to reach.
And 1.430 - hourly confluence and level when OS should be normalized.

Moving higher to 1.4380-1.44 is also possible, but there is a great risk to receive weekly W&R in this case. If it will happen, I will not enter on short side probably.

 

[Sentinel]

EURUSD reached another weekly confluence level (1.4115 - 1.4080). Weekly COP is close at 1.4010. Daily Detrend Oscillator is OS at daily chart. I think it is time to take a break and wait for next opportunity.

Closing my EUR short positions.