Discuss Forex-MegaDroid.com

[jb4041]

When it has a big loss, how long does it generally take for MD to make it up again?

FXCO, you ask 2 questions - does it usually take big losses and how long does it take to make it back. I can only answer for me, but I've been trading the MD for over a year now on one broker and about 2 months on another. It has taken 131 trades on one broker with 92.4% win rate. Avg winner = 6.55 pips and average loser is 34.55 pips. Since July of 2009, the largest loser I've taken was 46 pips (before that, I had a 93 pip loser). It rook almost 2 months to recover from that loss, but subsequent losses have been recovered within 2 weeks.

Regarding the big loss yesterday, if you read above, you will see that only one of my accounts took the trade. I was wondering if anyone else than me did not take that big loser.

 

[Ken Long]

When it has a big loss, how long does it generally take for MD to make it up again?

Megadroids SL varries between 50 + 150 pips, its TP is either 10 pips, or 15 pips for aggressive trades. Although we havent seen a stop out for 150 pips we have seen MD set a 150 pip SL, so the potential is always there. If you do some long term backtests or review 2008 on their web site you can see the effect of large losses and consecustive losses and judge how long it might take to recover. The actual time depends a lot on your risk settings, aggressive mode and recovery mode settings. Just remember when trying to recover from a loss, its always able to take anouther loss with simultaneous recovery mode and aggressive mode active, if you use them. You can easily see how this might multiply the damage.

Megadroid does try to claim a 95% win rate. This is not entirely accurate. Megadroid has a 5% loss rate, but the other 95% are only about half wins and half breakeven trades with a psychological 1 pip profit. When calculating recovery time you have to keep this is mind. As well you have to consider whether you are willing to double your risk (Recovery Mode) and open double positions (Aggressive Mode) in an attempt to recover quickly. This can often work, but the one time it backfires and causes double losses with double risk each, or a margin call as these double positions both go into drawdown with large position sizes, then you will know the true risk.

Personally, I recomend Recovery Mode OFF, Aggressive Mode OFF with a larger position size. The EA will trade less frequently, sometimes it wont trade at all for weeks, but it will be more accurate, and it wont suddenly take on double positions or double risk trying to make a quick buck.

My live account at FXDD with the above settings did not open this trade. I didnt have my demo accounts on this week.

 

[FXCO]

Thank Ken and JB for your answers

 

[jb4041]

11/25/10 trade

MD took a short in FXDD and got out for -4. It was at -24 earlier, but closed with just -4. That is unusual because when the trade goes against me, MD usually waits to close with -1 or +1. Well, -4 is better than a full stop, that is for sure.

 

[Ken Long]

MD took a short in FXDD and got out for -4. It was at -24 earlier, but closed with just -4. That is unusual because when the trade goes against me, MD usually waits to close with -1 or +1. Well, -4 is better than a full stop, that is for sure.

I agree, this is quite unusual for MD. I had the same trade on my FXDD live account and there was no reason for it to happen. I originally though it was a glitch or conection problem with my old computer that I run my robots on.

This trade never came anywhere near its stop loss, and would have easily made its profit target. By all accounts if it was closed early it should have been for 1 pip gain.

Situations like this will always be a problem when running trading robots, especialy ones that are writen and designed by someone else. We have no way of really knowing what this robot is capable of, other than what we have seen it do in the past.

Perhaps this is something new from v1.3 aggressive trade mode. This was an aggressive trade. I havent seen MD take anything but aggressive trades in weeks. The controls and time frame it seeks its trades on are different for aggressive and conservative mode.

My answer to this is, I run MD in two different chart windows simultaneously with different magic numbers. One I run in aggressive mode with a very small risk setting. The other I run in conservative mode with a much larger risk setting. If I could, I would run v1.2 instead for the conservative setting, but the two versions arent compatable simultaneously.

Post this problem to MD support and see what they say. Now that I know its not just me I will post to them as well.

 

[jb4041]

This trade never came anywhere near its stop loss, and would have easily made its profit target. By all accounts if it was closed early it should have been for 1 pip gain.

Situations like this will always be a problem when running trading robots, especialy ones that are writen and designed by someone else. We have no way of really knowing what this robot is capable of, other than what we have seen it do in the past.

Perhaps this is something new from v1.3 aggressive trade mode. This was an aggressive trade. I havent seen MD take anything but aggressive trades in weeks. The controls and time frame it seeks its trades on are different for aggressive and conservative mode.

My answer to this is, I run MD in two different chart windows simultaneously with different magic numbers. One I run in aggressive mode with a very small risk setting. The other I run in conservative mode with a much larger risk setting. If I could, I would run v1.2 instead for the conservative setting, but the two versions arent compatable simultaneously.

Post this problem to MD support and see what they say. Now that I know its not just me I will post to them as well.

Excellent post Ken. I appreciate your expertise on MD. Can you tell me how one can tell the difference between an "agressive" trade and a "non-aggressive" trade? I used to run both of my accounts in aggressive mode, but since you said that aggressive will "double down" and a losing trade and run the risk of a margin call (which happened to me by the way and I did not understand what happened until I read your post), I am only running one of my accounts in "aggressive" mode.

Have you heard anything back from MD support regarding your question on why it closed the trade from Tuesday with only -4 pips? I have not sent them a ticket as yet - I haven't found them to be the most responsive to questions.

FYI: tonight, MD opened a long trade for me on my FXDD account that closed for 10 pips profit within 13 minutes and then price retraced and it opened another long 37 minutes later and closed that with 10 pips profit within about 12 minutes - 2 great trades.

My IBFX account took only the first of these trades and got out at around 12 minutes later. Oddly enough, the IBFX entry was 7 pips earlier than the FXDD entry. There is a part of me that is a little worried about the IBFX account because I've gotten hurt more with IBFX than the FXDD and the fact that such varying entry points exist concerns me.

I welcome anyone's input.

 

[pipsbuster]

In slightly over a week, not only did Megadroid recover as usual from the most recent loss it took, but kept on making further profits: FxPro_MD System | Myfxbook

 

[Ken Long]

Excellent post Ken. I appreciate your expertise on MD. Can you tell me how one can tell the difference between an "agressive" trade and a "non-aggressive" trade? I used to run both of my accounts in aggressive mode, but since you said that aggressive will "double down" and a losing trade and run the risk of a margin call (which happened to me by the way and I did not understand what happened until I read your post), I am only running one of my accounts in "aggressive" mode.

Have you heard anything back from MD support regarding your question on why it closed the trade from Tuesday with only -4 pips? I have not sent them a ticket as yet - I haven't found them to be the most responsive to questions.

FYI: tonight, MD opened a long trade for me on my FXDD account that closed for 10 pips profit within 13 minutes and then price retraced and it opened another long 37 minutes later and closed that with 10 pips profit within about 12 minutes - 2 great trades.

My IBFX account took only the first of these trades and got out at around 12 minutes later. Oddly enough, the IBFX entry was 7 pips earlier than the FXDD entry. There is a part of me that is a little worried about the IBFX account because I've gotten hurt more with IBFX than the FXDD and the fact that such varying entry points exist concerns me.

I welcome anyone's input.

I had the first winning trade on FXDD US, but not the second.

The difference between aggressive and conservative trades is easily noticed in the TP level, Conservative 10 pips, Aggressive 15 pips. If you have Stealth mode on you wont be able to see the actual TP and SL levels. Its also referenced in the comments column by the magic numbers you assigned, or the default set that came with the EA. You can change these numbers in the program, and it is recomended to do this regularly.

Aggressive mode will allow it to open both conservative and aggressive trades simultaneously, and Recover mode will allow it to double the position size after a loss, and maintain the doubled position size untill the account comes back to the original level. If your not careful with the risk setting, this combination could easily cause a margin call, especially now with the 50:1 US leverage limits.

I havent contacted MD support yet. I tend to get busy and forget these things unless they become recurring problems.

MD will generally open trades at different times on different accounts, even with the same broker. This is actually a big plus. It means your not competing on top of hundreds of other traders, and its much harder for the brokers and such to potentialy target MD's trades.

 

[jb4041]

Thanks Ken

Ken, I appreciate your help and comments. I was thinking also that it is nice that MD will open different trades with different brokers and even with the same broker on different accounts - allows a little bit if diversification.

I've tried diversifying my EAs in the past. I purchased and installed FAPturbo and it did not trade well for me. Similar to MD in that it will take small profits and large losses, but the losses were far more common with FT than with MD. I turned off FT altogether. That is the only other EA I've tried in the past although I've looked at lots of them.

Are you using any other EAs than MD? I'm curious as to what others are doing to diversify their EA trading. Again, any input is welcome.

John

 

[Dirk58]

hi all

very busy time for me now so I´m not a lot lookin at the threads.....
Starting my self-employment now, testing another EA and having a close look to another tiny little nice system with another guy we will develop an EA for this time is short.
Thanks Ken for havin more insight of MD´s behaviour, that´s interesting.
jb4041, I´m live with the Forex Morning Trade EA now and testing another pair and different trading times too. Results you will find at the FMT thread within the FPA......
nice weekend and
always good trading