Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,771
Monthly
On big picture we see price bounce from support. It is difficult to say whether this reaction on yearly pivot or on 50% support level – anyway bounce has started, we’ve talked about it much in our day-by-day analysis. On passed week this upward move has continued. Now here is a big temptation to call it as “bullish engulfing” pattern, but Arpil bar has not closed yet. Anyway this probably will be treated just as retracement, because we need breakout of 1.3710 highs to speak again about bull trend. Until this will not happen – price action will remain just retracement.
Besides, nobody has cancelled bearish engulfing pattern and I see nothing curious with this minor bounce. If you will take a look at engulfing patterns, especially on long-term charts, you’ll see that in most cases some at least small retracement happens after pattern has been completed. And here we have support right below it. As the conclusion of monthly analysis we can say that we have bearish pattern that points on long-term perspective down to 1.25 area. Hence current bounce could be used as a rally to Sell into and we could get some AB=CD down, based on bearish engulfing. As on previous week now we have to continue monitor the potential end point of current retracement up.
Weekly
Our assumptions on previous week on bullish engulfing pattern and possible consequences has appeared to be reasonable – market has continued move up and even closed above MPR1 (not shown on the chart). Picture looks relatively simple – it is clear at what circumstances bear trend will be re-established and it is clear what to expect, at least in short-term from upward action. Thus, we can speak again about bearish trend if market will take 1.2660 low, I mean, if reversal will happen prior upward target achievement. Target itself stands at 1.3250 – based as on bullish engulfing target as on harmonic swing application.
Here we continue to treat this action as some kind of H&S pattern. Although as I’ve said before H&S pattern has to appear on significant tops but here we do not have any, but the price action that could take the shape of H&S. Despite whether we would call it as H&S or not, it just means that retracement could reach as far as 1.3260 area – 50% resistance of whole current downward move (by applying the harmony). And we know that EUR likes 50% level most of all others. Another moment that supports our thoughts is that potential head stands at 1.27 of left shoulder, so currently it seems that everything OK with this.
There is no contradiction between monthly and weekly setups. Current combination just means that downward continuation due monthly pattern could start from higher price – where weekly bullish pattern will exhaust and reach its target. Since we trade on daily chart and intraday, for us this means that we are bullish in short term until target will be hit or bullish engulfing pattern will be vanished by breaking through its low.
Daily
The price action of whole previous week confirms our conclusion about bullish sentiment in short-term. Still, as we’ve noted in daily updates market has reached significant resistance level on daily, that includes major 3/8 Fib resistance (that is also Confluence resistance), double of harmonic swing up, former WPR1. At first touch that was overbought as well, but it is nothing more right now.
Interesting is that 3 harmonic swings up points on the same 1.3250 area as on weekly chart. That is our short-term target as we’ve decided in weekly chart analysis.
As we at resistance and market stands there 3 days in a row, we probably should be ready for a bounce down. This retracement probably will be at least 50-61,8%. This is also happens when market shows first upward reversal swing, because of solid previous bearish momentum.
4-hour
Trend has turned bearish here. We have very attractive K-support around 1.2990 that coincides with MPS1 on coming week, but may be will be better to be focused on a bit lower area – between major 5/8 and 50% support. That is 1.29-1.2950. I do know, we will see how it will turn, since currently we have nothing in progress to the downside that could let us point the precise level to watch. So, our assumption of deeper retracement is based mostly on solid previous bearish momentum on daily. In most cases market shows AB=CD move down after first reversal upward swing.
Also here we could get bullish dynamic pressure, since market stands flat while trend holds bearish. Although price doesn’t show upward action that it should with dynamic pressure, but we can’t exclude totally appearing of another upward spike that will create new high. I don’t want to tell that it has to happen, but just possible.
60-min
The pattern that we have here is reversal one and this is broadening top or megaphone pattern. Still it also doesn’t exclude possible continuation and new high appearance. Still, we have to carry mostly about low in red circle – this pattern will be triggered and reversal is treated as in progress when price will pass through it. As usually happens with ordinary triangles – if market will not be able to achieve upward border before downward breakout – this will give additional confirmation of market weakness.
Conclusion:
Despite the moment that long-term picture is bearish, in short-term perspective market looks bullish and gives hints that it could show deeper retracement up. Probable target of upward retracement is
1.3250.
In shorter perspective market stands at resistance and previous bearish momentum was solid, thus odds of retracement are increasing. Still, all that we have now is just broadening top pattern. If it will be triggered, then 1.29-1.2950 is a level that downward retracement could reach before market will turn up again.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
On big picture we see price bounce from support. It is difficult to say whether this reaction on yearly pivot or on 50% support level – anyway bounce has started, we’ve talked about it much in our day-by-day analysis. On passed week this upward move has continued. Now here is a big temptation to call it as “bullish engulfing” pattern, but Arpil bar has not closed yet. Anyway this probably will be treated just as retracement, because we need breakout of 1.3710 highs to speak again about bull trend. Until this will not happen – price action will remain just retracement.
Besides, nobody has cancelled bearish engulfing pattern and I see nothing curious with this minor bounce. If you will take a look at engulfing patterns, especially on long-term charts, you’ll see that in most cases some at least small retracement happens after pattern has been completed. And here we have support right below it. As the conclusion of monthly analysis we can say that we have bearish pattern that points on long-term perspective down to 1.25 area. Hence current bounce could be used as a rally to Sell into and we could get some AB=CD down, based on bearish engulfing. As on previous week now we have to continue monitor the potential end point of current retracement up.
Weekly
Our assumptions on previous week on bullish engulfing pattern and possible consequences has appeared to be reasonable – market has continued move up and even closed above MPR1 (not shown on the chart). Picture looks relatively simple – it is clear at what circumstances bear trend will be re-established and it is clear what to expect, at least in short-term from upward action. Thus, we can speak again about bearish trend if market will take 1.2660 low, I mean, if reversal will happen prior upward target achievement. Target itself stands at 1.3250 – based as on bullish engulfing target as on harmonic swing application.
Here we continue to treat this action as some kind of H&S pattern. Although as I’ve said before H&S pattern has to appear on significant tops but here we do not have any, but the price action that could take the shape of H&S. Despite whether we would call it as H&S or not, it just means that retracement could reach as far as 1.3260 area – 50% resistance of whole current downward move (by applying the harmony). And we know that EUR likes 50% level most of all others. Another moment that supports our thoughts is that potential head stands at 1.27 of left shoulder, so currently it seems that everything OK with this.
There is no contradiction between monthly and weekly setups. Current combination just means that downward continuation due monthly pattern could start from higher price – where weekly bullish pattern will exhaust and reach its target. Since we trade on daily chart and intraday, for us this means that we are bullish in short term until target will be hit or bullish engulfing pattern will be vanished by breaking through its low.
Daily
The price action of whole previous week confirms our conclusion about bullish sentiment in short-term. Still, as we’ve noted in daily updates market has reached significant resistance level on daily, that includes major 3/8 Fib resistance (that is also Confluence resistance), double of harmonic swing up, former WPR1. At first touch that was overbought as well, but it is nothing more right now.
Interesting is that 3 harmonic swings up points on the same 1.3250 area as on weekly chart. That is our short-term target as we’ve decided in weekly chart analysis.
As we at resistance and market stands there 3 days in a row, we probably should be ready for a bounce down. This retracement probably will be at least 50-61,8%. This is also happens when market shows first upward reversal swing, because of solid previous bearish momentum.
4-hour
Trend has turned bearish here. We have very attractive K-support around 1.2990 that coincides with MPS1 on coming week, but may be will be better to be focused on a bit lower area – between major 5/8 and 50% support. That is 1.29-1.2950. I do know, we will see how it will turn, since currently we have nothing in progress to the downside that could let us point the precise level to watch. So, our assumption of deeper retracement is based mostly on solid previous bearish momentum on daily. In most cases market shows AB=CD move down after first reversal upward swing.
Also here we could get bullish dynamic pressure, since market stands flat while trend holds bearish. Although price doesn’t show upward action that it should with dynamic pressure, but we can’t exclude totally appearing of another upward spike that will create new high. I don’t want to tell that it has to happen, but just possible.
60-min
The pattern that we have here is reversal one and this is broadening top or megaphone pattern. Still it also doesn’t exclude possible continuation and new high appearance. Still, we have to carry mostly about low in red circle – this pattern will be triggered and reversal is treated as in progress when price will pass through it. As usually happens with ordinary triangles – if market will not be able to achieve upward border before downward breakout – this will give additional confirmation of market weakness.
Conclusion:
Despite the moment that long-term picture is bearish, in short-term perspective market looks bullish and gives hints that it could show deeper retracement up. Probable target of upward retracement is
1.3250.
In shorter perspective market stands at resistance and previous bearish momentum was solid, thus odds of retracement are increasing. Still, all that we have now is just broadening top pattern. If it will be triggered, then 1.29-1.2950 is a level that downward retracement could reach before market will turn up again.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
