FOREX PRO WEEKLY August 19-23, 2013

[Triantus Shango]

Reuter Messenger FXWW Chat room gives you access to this info

guys, this RM room (FXWW) is awesome. you can't write, only read what these pro traders are talking about.

for example today:


EURUSD

E/$..Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals) $1.3500
Strong offers on approach $1.3475/85
Strong offers/$1.3483 76.4% 2013 $1.3711-1.2746
Corp offers $1.3450
Strong offers (sell interest replaced after $1.3453 Tues high) $1.3425-27
Stops on break of $1.3425/$1.3427 Weds Aug21 $1.3410-20
Strong offers $1.3400
Medium offers/Stops $1.3386 Tech 200-wma $1.3380
Medium offers/$1.3380-85 Stops $1.3373 Thursday Aug22 high (NY) $1.3368 Int.Day high Asia $1.3337
***Current mkt rate 0611GMT Friday $1.3336 Int.Day low late Asia into Europe $1.3310 Stops/21-dma $1.3300
Medium demand (61.8% $1.3205-1.3453)/$1.3298 Aug22 low $1.3285/80
Strong demand/Stops $1.3265/60
Minor demand $1.3250
Medium demand on approach $1.3210/00
Strong demand/$1.3205 Aug15 low



USDJPY
11:19:00 AM All big PBs reporting same flows with hedge funds buying USDJPY.
11:20:08 AM Profit takers 9920 and bids expected solid 9865/70.
11:20:39 AM Trailing stops now below 9860

CABLE
1:20:01 PM Cable orders from PB; bids still 15560ish with stops directly below. Sell orders 15620/25.

EURUSD

2:20:34 PM The euro’s recent strength is driven by real money flows and the unwind of EM positions. As highlighted in our Flow Report, last week hedge funds were selling EUR, but non-leveraged accounts (real money) were large buyers. On a directional basis, the real money flows are larger than the three remaining client types. We have seen such a pattern before, in early 2013 and most recently in June 2013. In both instances, when EM Asian FX weakened, EUR-USD rallied – breaking its long standing correlation. Eventually the USD correlation returned - 12 days the first time and four weeks the second.


2:20:43 PM The lower the EZ tail risk is – the more likely it is seen as an alternative region of growth to the US. The better European economic outlook is encouraged investor flow to diversify and undervalued European equities are still an attractive magnet. Real Money’s long EM position still remains the largest exposure that client type has, and Citi FX flows have only just begun to capture net outflows from the LatAm, EMEA and Asian regions. Real money flows tend to be sticky and make calling a reversal difficult. However, if the EUR flow is predicated on better growth and economic outlook, it should be highly sensitive to data surprises.



2:44:54 PM marketnews.com


OPTIONS: Expiries for today's 1000ET cut,

* Euro-dollar; $1.3200, $1.3225, $1.3315, $1.3335, $1.3400, $1.3450
* Dollar-yen; Y97.35, Y97.40, Y97.45, Y97.65, Y98.00, Y98.50, Y100.00
* Euro-yen; Y130.50, Y131.00, Y132.00
* Cable; $1.5500, $1.5570, $1.5575, $1.5600
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9300
* Aussie; $0.8925, $0.9000, $0.9050, $0.9125, $0.9250
* Kiwi; $0.7950
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0440, C$1.0450, C$1.0460, C$1.0465, C$1.0515
* Dollar-Try; Try1.9800
* Euro-Try; Try2.6200


2:45:15 PM North European bank is seen buying euros from 1.3337..... again at 1.3340



3:14:21 PM Anticipating a strong Nikkei opening, speculative accounts bought UsdJpy from 98.75 and encountered very decent offers at 99.00. It took some time for macro names to soak up the sell orders, some of the offers are from exporters and small part for an Asian reserve manager. Once the offers were depleted, dollar ran to 99.10 and executed stops at 99.05.


3:14:35 PM EurUsd got a temporary small boost from Bloomberg headlines that ECB Nowotny said the recent “stream of good news” from the Euro-area economy has removed any need to cut interest rates to a fresh record low. However, some are skeptic especially after yesterday’s data – strong German manufacturing output but French faltered. High of the day 1.3368, but overall, EurUsd is stuck in this 1.33-1.34 range. There are decent bids at and beneath 1.3280 while good selling reported above 1.3420. You will hear stops at 1.3300-10 and 1.3400 but I feel these are just traps.



3:25:41 PM UBS:
3:25:43 PM EUR/USD: (Bullish) The pair is under correction having tested the important resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3298 ahead of 1.3206. Resistance is at 1.3452 ahead of 1.3520.


USD/JPY: (Bullish) The recent strength is trading just shy of first resistance at 99.34, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at 96.91.


3:25:51 PM GBP/USD: (Neutral) Having advanced sharply, the pair is correcting and unwinding the sharp advance. Support is at 1.5536 ahead of 1.5423. Resistance is at 1.5665 ahead of 1.5752.


AUD/USD: (Bearish) There is scope for more weakness and support focus is at 0.8848, a break below which would expose 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.9082 ahead of 0.9233.
3:29:28 PM USDJPY demand from Japanese and macro accounts seen through the session and focus on chart resistance at 99.25/35

 

[Triantus Shango]

HSBC Currency Weekly Research

and this: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/20/IA5t9RLVT3zr

 

[minimax]

Ready to go?

Take care & good trading!

 

[minimax]

Thank you, Triantus, but I dont understand what are offers: stop orders - intend to buy or what - stops? Would appreciate to explain so I could understand. Thank you again.

 

[Triantus Shango]

sive,

i just finished reading the HSBC report i just posted on this thread. their conclusion is:

Conclusion


The USD should not be about to succumb to fears regarding the transition in US monetary policy. The
USD has a mixed historical relationship with Fed tightening cycles, on some occasions strengthening, on
others weakening. But rising growth expectations rather than inflation fears are driving the current rise in
US yields, which historically has created a stronger USD. So far, this USD strength has been more
consistently evident against EM currencies. But we anticipate a fresh bout of USD upside against the
EUR, GBP and JPY. Neither the ECB nor the BoE will want to live with rising market interest rates and a
stronger currency. Policies will likely respond, through words and actions, taking their currencies lower
against the USD. In fact, history shows that over the tightening cycle, the USD has tended to perform
consistently across G10. It would be wrong to read too much into its recent weakness against the EUR,
GBP and JPY. The USD has smacked EM, and it is coming for G10.


if you have time, could you please gives us your comment about this? (seeing we are not exactly fundamental traders, well i definitely am not ) thanks.

 

[Triantus Shango]

CitFX EURUSD outlook

CitiFX Wire.. EURUSD – it has to be said EURUSD price action is less than convincing and it feels like the market is sitting patiently short and the follow through so far has been very muted. Of course mixed to better data yesterday has hampered another extension towards the downside as has Nowotnys comments overnight which prompted another 25/30 point squeeze. But the price action continues to suggest that the weak side feels like the topside.Going forward I think we may return to the 1.34 handle in the short term and have gone long at these levels. I just think the market is complacent about another extension lower and we will correct back towards the stop zone around 1.3420/1.3450. If we do start to track lower again then I will look to add around 1.3300/10 and only a move towards the recent range low around 1.3210 confirm further weakness is on the cards.

 

[Triantus Shango]

sure thing.

offers = orders to sell

stop orders = orders that when hit will close currently opened positions. so for example, if the majority of traders are long, their stop orders are below. now if the total size of these stop orders is large enough, when they are hit (if), it will trigger many sell orders (the opposite of a long order is a sell order, of course, so to close a long order with a stop, your stop needs to be a sell stop order). and like i said, if the size is significant enough, you can see those sell orders on your chart appear as long wick or spikes. now, suddenly the big players who want to go long have enough sellers to buy from--they have created their own supply so they can buy, market goes up again, they make money, the stopped guys lose money. it usually seems to happen when market is at some OB or OS or standard deviation extreme of one sort or the other.

these guys explain it much better than i: http://www.daytradingforexlive.com/...orex-trend-reversals-end-of-day-forex-system/

Thank you, Triantus, but I dont understand what are offers: stop orders - intend to buy or what - stops? Would appreciate to explain so I could understand. Thank you again.

 

[Triantus Shango]

Summary of FXWW, GS, JPM traders strategy

sorry a bit short notice... was distracted.

Summary of our Traders’ Strategies:

EUR: The plan remains the same, fading 1.3360/70 should we see it looking for a break towards 1.3260, but patience very much remains the name of the game.

JPY: We remain long and will roll our short term stop up through 98.10 or 98.40.

GBP: My feeling is the market will look to go into next weeks speech short cable which I would look to fade ahead of the event.

CAD: Given the amount of real money supply of USDCAD we have seen in the past month or so positioning favours being long USD’s for once and think USDCAD can continue to outperform.

AUD: Play the range tactically as with yesterday fading 0.9020 risking 0.9060 with intraday supports at 0.8970 then 0.893


EUR It was Nowotny’s turn to bang the no-further-rate-cut drum overnight, but reaction in spot was minimal. Expectations on such drastic actions have certainly been tamed over the past few months - and rightly so some would say given the improvement in European data and the tightening of peripheral spreads over the bund. The number of ECB rate related comments hitting the wires in recent weeks have certainly increased (admittedly usually from the German camp), but this could just be an attempt to force Draghi into closing the rate cut door that’s been left ajar since the last rate cut in May. The Euro respected the right levels yesterday, holding 1.33 on the downside and the 1.3375 pivot above - the plan remains the same, fading 1.3360/70 should we see it looking for a break towards 1.3260, but patience very much remains the name of the game."



Friday 23rd August: Good Morning. Please see below thoughts/levels for the upcoming session from our London GS spot traders:

Summary of our Traders’ Strategies:

EUR: The plan remains the same, fading 1.3360/70 should we see it looking for a break towards 1.3260, but patience very much remains the name of the game.

JPY: We remain long and will roll our short term stop up through 98.10 or 98.40.

GBP: My feeling is the market will look to go into next weeks speech short cable which I would look to fade ahead of the event.

CAD: Given the amount of real money supply of USDCAD we have seen in the past month or so positioning favours being long USD’s for once and think USDCAD can continue to outperform.

AUD: Play the range tactically as with yesterday fading 0.9020 risking 0.9060 with intraday supports at 0.8970 then 0.893

EUR

It was Nowotny’s turn to bang the no-further-rate-cut drum overnight, but reaction in spot was minimal. Expectations on such drastic actions have certainly been tamed over the past few months - and rightly so some would say given the improvement in European data and the tightening of peripheral spreads over the bund. The number of ECB rate related comments hitting the wires in recent weeks have certainly increased (admittedly usually from the German camp), but this could just be an attempt to force Draghi into closing the rate cut door that’s been left ajar since the last rate cut in May. The Euro respected the right levels yesterday, holding 1.33 on the downside and the 1.3375 pivot above - the plan remains the same, fading 1.3360/70 should we see it looking for a break towards 1.3260, but patience very much remains the name of the game. Encouraging price action in USDJPY over the past couple of sessions with the retraces proving a lot less painful than we have become accustomed to – the caveat being that we still have Friday moves to come. Last weeks highs at 99.15 have capped us for now with the NFP Friday highs at 99.95 the next target on the horizon should we trip the stops through 99.20. UST 10yrs continue to trade heavy and the Nikkei is being well behaved this morning, so we remain long and will roll our short term stop up through 98.10 or 98.40. Spot reference: USDJPY - 98.91 View from: Frank Cahill GBP Dollar broadly supported but sterling continues to hold in - indeed cable held 1.5550/60 support yesterday despite numerous attempts at a break and we find ourselves back towards 1.56 with little interest in this mornings data set (Q2 GDP revisions / import - export data). Focus will turn to Carney's speech next week at Nottingham University with the market already discussing the possibility of his making some mention of the move in rates post the inflation report although I think unlikely anything specific is said on the currency. Intra-day support remains 1.5550/60 with offers now 1.5630/50 although a close back above here would put us in for another test of the 1.5750 area but my feeling is the market will look to go into next weeks speech short cable which I would look to fade ahead of the event."


JPY
Encouraging price action in USDJPY over the past couple of sessions with the retraces proving a lot less painful than we have become accustomed to – the caveat being that we still have Friday moves to come. Last weeks highs at 99.15 have capped us for now with the NFP Friday highs at 99.95 the next target on the horizon should we trip the stops through 99.20. UST 10yrs continue to trade heavy and the Nikkei is being well behaved this morning, so we remain long and will roll our short term stop up through 98.10 or 98.40.

Spot reference: USDJPY - 98.91


GBP
Dollar broadly supported but sterling continues to hold in - indeed cable held 1.5550/60 support yesterday despite numerous attempts at a break and we find ourselves back towards 1.56 with little interest in this mornings data set (Q2 GDP revisions / import - export data). Focus will turn to Carney's speech next week at Nottingham University with the market already discussing the possibility of his making some mention of the move in rates post the inflation report although I think unlikely anything specific is said on the currency. Intra-day support remains 1.5550/60 with offers now 1.5630/50 although a close back above here would put us in for another test of the 1.5750 area but my feeling is the market will look to go into next weeks speech short cable which I would look to fade ahead of the event. Retail sales weak yesterday which helps compound the strong price action we have seen of late in USDCAD. Many had expected the number to be weak, partly due to recent flooding, but the follow through in USDCAD still impressive. CAD crosses in particular are starting to gain some traction with EURCAD and GBPCAD breaking notable multi-year tech levels. Given the amount of real money supply of USDCAD we have seen in the past month or so positioning favours being long USD’s for once and think USDCAD can continue to outperform. The combination of bad domestic data and a market wanting to get long USD in anticipation of September should help take us through the recent cycle highs of 1.0609 with next level above the highs from October 2011 just below 1.0660. Stops on the downside remain around 1.0450 area."



CAD
Retail sales weak yesterday which helps compound the strong price action we have seen of late in USDCAD. Many had expected the number to be weak, partly due to recent flooding, but the follow through in USDCAD still impressive. CAD crosses in particular are starting to gain some traction with EURCAD and GBPCAD breaking notable multi-year tech levels. Given the amount of real money supply of USDCAD we have seen in the past month or so positioning favours being long USD’s for once and think USDCAD can continue to outperform. The combination of bad domestic data and a market wanting to get long USD in anticipation of September should help take us through the recent cycle highs of 1.0609 with next level above the highs from October 2011 just below 1.0660. Stops on the downside remain around 1.0450 area. Respects the post Fed minutes highs for now after leveraged demand yesterday took the AUD back up to 0.9040. With the Chinese FDI numbers coming in significantly better than expected and Asian stocks performing well the short term market expected the 0.9060 stops to get done but appears to have been caught a little long - short term stops triggered through the figure this morning. Yesterday the AUD felt well supported with the flash PMI seemingly turning the USD trend with AUD crosses in particular appearing to have based. For now however don’t think anything has really changed and expect the market to tentatively build USD longs as we approach September. Play the range tactically as with yesterday fading 0.9020 risking 0.9060 with intraday supports at 0.8970 then 0.8935."


AUD
Respects the post Fed minutes highs for now after leveraged demand yesterday took the AUD back up to 0.9040. With the Chinese FDI numbers coming in significantly better than expected and Asian stocks performing well the short term market expected the 0.9060 stops to get done but appears to have been caught a little long - short term stops triggered through the figure this morning. Yesterday the AUD felt well supported with the flash PMI seemingly turning the USD trend with AUD crosses in particular appearing to have based. For now however don’t think anything has really changed and expect the market to tentatively build USD longs as we approach September. Play the range tactically as with yesterday fading 0.9020 risking 0.9060 with intraday supports at 0.8970 then 0.8935. "Indeed, we believe that the BoE and BoJ are likely to be the most vocal central banks on the dovish side in the coming week, as the BoE pushes back against the recent rise in rate expectations and the BoJ reassures markets that it stands ready to act if required" "In our medium-term portfolio we are short GBPUSD and long USDCAD and USDJPY. We also look to buy USDCHF and sell NZDUSD


Morgan Stanley - "We believe that GBP and JPY currently stand out as the most vulnerable currencies within the G10 and we maintain our bearish strategy towards these currencies."
"Indeed, we believe that the BoE and BoJ are likely to be the most vocal central banks on the dovish side in the coming week, as the BoE pushes back against the recent rise in rate expectations and the BoJ reassures markets that it stands ready to act if required"
"In our medium-term portfolio we are short GBPUSD and long USDCAD and USDJPY. We also look to buy USDCHF and sell NZDUSD"

 

[Triantus Shango]

Deutsche Bank traders view

Spot Trading Morning Report
EUR (Michael Ford)

Open 1.3340 Support 1.3300 1.3270 Resistance 1.3415

• • Euro still remains a bit trapped, the Eurpean PMIs were good enough to give us a quick spike to 1.3365 but USD buying proved to much and we sell off the 1.33 only to eventually bounce to opening levels. Still feel Eurusd is not the play here. I believe in the USD higher story but Euro likely to continue to outperform on the crosses
• • German GDP today
• • Small short Eurusd but most my long USD risk is verses jpy and EM

GBP (Michael Ford)

Open 1.5580 Support 1.5500/1.5520 Resistance 1.5620/1.5660

• • Some late day comments from BOE’s Weale discussing the need for additional QE if EM or EU shocks resurface have hurt sterling this morning. With him not being a recent voter for additional asset purchases this did catch the mkt a little off guard with macros selling cable as the technicals broke down.
• • With many of the stops out of the way on the books we are now better buyers for AM and RM names on dips. Corperates looking to sell any pop above 1.56 at the moment
• • Short GBP here looking for another push lower towards the 200 DMA

CHF (Christoph Milewski)

Open 1.2335/37 Support 1.2310/1.2250 Resistance 1.2380/1.2400
Open 0.9247/49 Support 0.9220/0.9180 Resistance 0.9290/0.9320

• • The x opens unchanged after a very quiet overnight session, 1.2310/1,2360 should cover it ahead of the week-end, on the longer run we maintain our long position
• • USDCHF still trades in nowhere land, we are sidelined and watching eurusd closely for further clues, levels to watch are 0,9210 and 0,9290

AUD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.9000 Support 0.8980 8850 Resistance 0.9060

• • AUD continues to consolidate around 0.9000. Quiet trading night. A little surprised it has not ground higher with equities, but seems USD strength is stopping it running away.
• • No data of note, still see offers building above and bids below. Gamma players happy to trade the broader range and capture the intraday moves.
• • Still think we are a sell on rallies - the strategy for the day will be to sell cash into any squeeze up to 0.9060 should.

NZD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.7810 Support 0.7750 Resistance 0.7900

• • Some minor respite for the Kiwi as the sell-off halts for now, though its unable to post any decent recover with AUDNZD trading quite strongly post the better China PMI number.
• • Kiwi should remain subdued into the weekend given the significant moves we have seen this week. I favour some consolidation here before ultimately the next round of USD buying sees it lower.

JPY (Justin Gray)

Open 98.99 Support 98.00 Resistance 99.25(TL)-100.00
Open 132.05 Support 131.00 Resistance 132.75

• • USDJPY continues its grind higher overnight chewing through decent offers 99.00/10.
• • Orderbook relatively balanced with better bids below to 98.00 and light offers up to 100.00.
• • We maintain our Jpy shorts held mainly via the USD now. Depending on how thick your pencil is looks like some trendline resistance 99.30/50 zone and psychological resistance at 100.00 but overall we favour higher and feels like momentum in the Yen trade is starting to return..

CAD (Justin Gray)

Open 1.0545 Support 1.0480 Resistance 1.0600

• • USDCAD topical as the data out of Canada continues to deteriorate, this move higher really was well overdue.
• • Expect decent 2 way as we approach the year highs at 1.0600 however demand for UsdCad has been relentless over last few days with US corporate, macro and North American real money accounts heavy buyers.
• • AUDCAD remains in focus following the China data yesterday, 0.9400 should serve as good support for now..
• •

SKANDIES (Andreas Stillert)

SEK

Open 8.70 Support 8.67 Resistance 8.74/8.80

• • SEK employment data considerably stronger than expected and eursek gets belted off the highs, with first stop 8.74 before continuing lower. NOKSEK selling accelerates through 1.0750ish and eursek continues to sell-off, stopping right in front of 8.67ish support
• • Some Riks comments out this morning in the European session largely ignored. 8.67 seems overdone to me on an employment number (hasn’t traditionally been a huge driver in SEK) but the FRAs are A LOT higher so any bounce will be met with supply.
• • NOKSEK now at lowest levels since 2004 and has come a very long way in a very short amount of time on what appears to be basically two data points. I am certainly NOT selling it down here and think for more medium-term investors able to take a small amount of short-term pain, these levels fairly appealing.
  
  NOK
  
  Open 8.15 Support 8.08/8.00 Resistance 8.20
  
• • EURNOK continues to rise as high as 8.17 on very thin trading volume.
• • We broke above 8.0850ish and haven’t looked back as more NOKSEK selling today not helping matters whatsoever.
• • 8.20 could be use as the next resistance. It's the highs of 2010 and a 50% fibonacci retracement of the late 2009 highs (9,135) and the 2012 lows (7.2580)
• • All in all, these levels looks fairly lofty but will need a further impetus for eurnok to come off as dips will be well supported 7.94-95 for now. No data for quite some time now (retail sales on aug 30th). Feels like market still long NOK and they continue to head for the panic button, difficult to stand in the way for now.

 

[Triantus Shango]

all of the above is stuff you can get from the Reuters Messenger chat room as traders exchange all this info among themselves. if you wanna sign up for a free trial, i posted a link a while back somewhere on this site. search for it. busy now. cheers ahd good trading all.