FOREX PRO WEEKLY August 26-30, 2013

[D.R.&Quinch]

flat waiting to see

damn. wish i caught that spike

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

Hello,

I think we are ready for the leg to HH....

Good trading!

View attachment 10956


09.50: out; waiting for 5th of ED





10.45: long again; we could be finished on 15m...

View attachment 10959

not finished it seems. what caused that spike

 

[minimax]

hi, Q! dont know, but currently DZZ X or maybe(??) one more down for ED but must go higher first...



It was very extended C with perfect impulse; I think we could hit 1,3380 before & IF lower

 

[Sive Morten]

Fundamentals:
There are many annalists who think that there will be inflation in the US. I understand that the banks have large amount of USD in the FED reserve. They wont keep the dollars there for 0.25% a year, especially now when the US economy is improving. When that much money will hit the market something will happen. Will USD collapse? Or, will it grow because everybody will want US equities? What do you think Sive?

Hi Georgeta,
sorry for delay with answer. Actually you're touching the corner stone of economy theory. Shortly speaking, this is not a question just of money amount, but it's relation to the size of economy. There is an indicator that calls "money velocity". When it reaches some extreme values - big changes come in economy. But this is only if we suggest that there is no undecover game. Everybody knows about monthly 85 Bln inflows and concerns about inflation. But if we add here a undercover game we will see some other stories.
Thus, one of the theories suggests, that as major bonds that should be bought out by Fed with QE program were held by big investment whales, hardly they invest money that they've got from Fed paid for bonds in loans. Take a look at stock market and then you'll see where this money. Now they need take profit and put in real assets - war in Syria is absolutely bull eye event for this. Take profit put it into gold and drop stock market, then return the rest back in equities and start it again.
For example, let's assume that big banks invest 100$ in 2011 in shares and they add gradually (due QE). Since US stock market is public, people also invest money. Say, by 2013 Invest banks have 200$ in stocks. They start to sell and simultaneously Syria war starts (hardly this is just occasionally, but this is different story). They take out from people 100$ put them into gold (real asset) and when stock market will drop for 50% (for example) invest the rest right back in stocks and start the game again. In fact they take 100$ from individuals. But that is just the theory, it just looks interesting...
If you take into cosideration derrivative market - there are a lot of space where you can hide external liquidity and hold inflation till the moment when you need it. This looks unbelievable, but at the same time may be it is not as unreal as it seems...

 

[alexoptimistic]

you should write for zerohedge, Sive (maybe you do...)

 

[minimax]

Hello,

I am bullish again, as long 1,3204 holds, but I am aware that blue abc COULD turn to 123 of leading diagonal so will react depending how expected up move developes entering/touching 1,32971 (and in zone 1,3342/98); atm we are in shark PRZ and if this really is shark then relatively soon and fast up move is expected...depends on Barack a lot...

Good trading!

 

[Triantus Shango]

i cannot believe that against my better judgement i entered a long trade on e/u. not because of what you posted... i was looking at the harmonic also and it seemed... well... anyway, now almost 24 hours later the damn pair has barely moved to the upside! so frustrating.

a good reminder for re-focusing on more volatile pairs.

Hello,

I am bullish again, as long 1,3204 holds, but I am aware that blue abc COULD turn to 123 of leading diagonal so will react depending how expected up move developes entering/touching 1,32971 (and in zone 1,3342/98); atm we are in shark PRZ and if this really is shark then relatively soon and fast up move is expected...depends on Barack a lot...

Good trading!

View attachment 10991

 

[minimax]

Triantus I was about to write this morning: so much about relatively soon, maybe fast will not disapointed....

Nothing! Closed buy at 48, sell at BE and now againg long. I can not help but for my count we need HH and yes, I am aware we could go lower = below 1,3204 but only as Xflat of C so I entered long again with SL below XFlat limit regarding current fractals. EU countries are not supporting USA and that can decide we go toward HH @1,34664 and the they will attack Syria, at least I think so...because I already expect down move as motive wave longer period of time.

Reconsidered my count I believe this whole move down can not be motive wave; I wrote wrong in my previous post, apologize!

Good trading!

 

[Venelin]

Preparing for long- 15 min.butterfly buy & then maybe 4h DRPO buy

 

[jessyodion]

Please Sive I have two questions based on yesterday and today's analysis
firstly, how can one get to know the stop grabber invalidation area which you made mention of minor grab stopper and major stop graber area. I mean how I know when the stop grabber starts to take action.
Secondle what do you mean by 3/8 levels.
Thank you.