FOREX PRO Weekly December 12-16, 2011

MidnightRun

Sergeant
Messages
186
Sive,
"So, during today's trading session, I suppose that market should show the new low first - hitting of 1.2999 target, then pierce it a bit just to let breakout traders to jump in. Then market probably will close the trap and start retracement to the upside."

Does the price action up to now fit into what you said in today's analysis, ot the price has dropped too far to correspond to what is meant by the above?
Thank you
 

Damian1987

Corporal
Messages
149
thanks damian. i see what you mean now.
Thanks Damian!
Again something very useful.
Very nice.
Thanks Damian,
BackSpace
You are all welcome. However please note that according to Sive's point of view DRPO in fact DID worked. I was expecting a bigger move for a DRPO so I considered it had failed and that gave me the context to play the DRPO failure, but if you think it has worked, then you have no context to play a failure. So , once again is up to each one of us and how we interpret price action. I encourage everybody to make their own analysis and see how it goes. best of trading for everyone.

Well-did`t work! But 1hour RRT on the horizon maybe!
It seem it has worked allright, it bounced back from a 4-hour OP. are you still in? what's your target? 1,3030 seems a good place to bank in some profits, what do you think? I'll try entering short on that time frame for tomorrow's trading sesion. 1,3120 is hourly confluence resistance. Still we have 1,3060 level wich is current .382 retracement. will see tomorrow what happens.
 

Damian1987

Corporal
Messages
149
14.45 GMT I see a DRPO on 15 min eur/usd
BTW Venelin, probably DRPO didn't worked because the first penetration of the 3x3 was too deep. it wnet up to .382 retracement of last swing down. That's not good for DRPO. And the second thing that is not good for DRPO is that when price came back below 3x3 it didn't take previous lows. It doesn't mean it will never occur a DRPO like that, but it's just about probabilities.
 
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asif faryad

Sergeant
Messages
194
BTW Venelin, probably DRPO didn't worked because the first penetration of the 3x3 was too deep. it wnet up to .382 retracement of last swing up. That's not good for DRPO. And the second thing that is not good for DRPO is that when price came back below 3x3 it didn't take previous lows. It doesn't mean it will never occur a DRPO like that, but it's just about probabilities.
Well said Damian,Lovely review of Yesterdays action.
The other thing to note for professional traders is NEVER GET EXCITED AS WHEN THIS EMOTION IS FELT STOP!!!! AND REVIEW YOURSELF ESPECIALLY AFTER A LONG SUCCESSFUL WINNING PERIOD.

Again its a probability but looking at market behaviour and support/resistance areas it is likely price will retest 13150-13200 areas then should plunge to our mid term target of 128000,but hey this is not a signal just a probability :)

As Damien says we all must take responsibility and make our own trading plan and respect it.

Wish you all great trading!
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,992
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 15, December 2011

Good morning,
First part of our trading plan has been accomplished - market has reached as 1.3003 as 1.2999 by new low, moved a bit lower to trigger breakout traders of 1.30 level. What's next?

On daily time frame - there is nothing new. Oversold level for today is ~ 1.2850. Probably if market will not show retracement currently, it hardly will show it till major AB-CD target at 1.2825.

On 4 hour chart trend has turned bullish. Also we see that around potential retracement target area (1.3142-1.3212) also K-resistance stands.

The major question now is to hourly time fame - here we have to look for "Buy" intraday patterns. Currently I do not see any really significant patterns. But:
Market has formed strong bullish divergence and stop grabbers. So, if market will move above 1.3010 low - this could lead to some kind of reverse H&S, since current low is very close to 1.618 extension of yesterday's one.
Another possiblity is 3-Drive "buy" , but I do not like it much - it will be very ugly and without harmony. Besides, 1.2905 is very close to 1.2825 - final target.
It's better to see return above 1.3010 low - this will give more confidence with retracement.
If market will start to move lower - this will be some kind of bearish dynamic pressure and lead to taking out of 1.2945 lows. In this case there will be shallow hope on retracement.
If you bearish and search possiblity to enter short - wait when 4-hour and hourly trends will turn bearish and use nearest 0.382 retracement to enter. While they stand bullish - it points on potential upward retracement.
 

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Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
sive

i am confused. i took a look at your H4 and my H4. on both i see no bullish signs.

1- as a matter of fact, the price is still walking the band, that is, inside BB2 and BB1, hardly a bullish sign (now 6.43 GMT). usually price has to cross the mid-BB, penetrate upper BB1 and find support at said BB1. but that has not happened yet.

2- also MACD is on the verge of crossing the signal line but not quite yet.

3- and williams %R is still stuck in oversold with no cross to the upside.

4- 3x3 < 7x5 < 25x5

5- price hovering at daily pivot with no crossover yet.

i don't understand how is this bullish.

so what makes you say that the trend has turned bullish on H4?

cheers.
 
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Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,992
sive

i am confused. i took a look at your H4 and my H4. on both i see no bullish signs.

1- as a matter of fact, the price is still walking the band, that is, inside BB2 and BB1, hardly a bullish sign (now 6.43 GMT). usually price has to cross the mid-BB, penetrate upper BB1 and find support at said BB1. but that has not happened yet.

2- also MACD is on the verge of crossing the signal line but not quite yet.

3- and williams %R is still stuck in oversold with no cross to the upside.

4- 3x3 < 7x5 < 25x5

5- price hovering at daily pivot with no crossover yet.

i don't understand how is this bullish.

so what makes you say that the trend has turned bullish on H4?

cheers.
MACD is bullish at close on 4hour chart - this is confirmed bullish trend.
And market at support of higher time frame + market mechanics. Stop grabbers again...
Now market is showing some move up... Let see, may be retracement will still happen.
 
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