EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 13, December 2011
Good morning,
yesterday's price action was really tough and market has destroyed our idea of upward deeper retracement faster than we could say "quidditch". In fact, our short-term analysis was vanished when market has taken out 1.3325 low on hourly time frame. But let's take a look where we are now.
On daily time frame bearish dynamic pressure, finally drives the market and worked out perfectly - shifting trend to bearish side and taken previous low. On daily time frame price action is just perfect for our bearish context. Market is gradually moving to our medium-term target 1.28-1.2850. So, from that perspective any retracement we can use to scaling in, if you want of cause. All trend are bearish (monthly, weekly, daily), market is not at oversold and there is no support areas just below it. What else do we need?
One thing that could lead to some retracement (hardly it will be reversal) is potential Butterfly "Buy" that is forming on daily time frame.
Now pay attention, that market has stopped right above previous lows.To explain that we need to take a look at hourly chart.
Still on 4-hour we see that trend is also bearish and will hold bearish till 1.3313-1.3318 K-resistance area. Slightly lower stands classical support/resistance line. So, for pure bearish scenario market should not break this area to upside. If this will happen, then in nearest term we should expect deeper upward move. But I suspect that odds are not too high to see it.
More probable that market will reverse down from some resistance level on hourly chart.
Here we see, that current retracement was triggered by completement of butterfly 1.618 "buy". And turns to DRPO "Buy" pattern. Where will be the target - it is difficult to predict. May be 1.3246-1.3261 K-resistance. What we do know is that 1.3313-1.3316 is crucial area. Taking into account that market stands right above previous lows, all trends are bearish and no support and oversold - I suspect that this retracement also will be fast and not deep.