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FOREX PRO WEEKLY, December 13-17, 2010

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies, Gold, Bitcoin Daily Video' started by Sive Morten, Dec 12, 2010.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 16, December 2010

    Good morning,
    EUR has broken through hourly Confluence support yesterday, and it makes me think that bearish bias is stronger currently. I suspect that market should reach the nearest daily target at 1.30.

    I also attach 4-hour chart and hourly chart. On 4-hour chart we see that 100% expansion target is at 1.3165, this is also an Agreement btw. This is a nearest target, but currently market turns to consolidation.
    On hourly chart we can see why it has happened - market has reached 1.618 expansion from previous ABC-top pattern.
    I think that today's trading plan could be as follows - there are couple of resistance levels to watch for sell signals on hourly chart - 1.3270 and Confluence at 1.3309-1.3314. If market will show some ABCD retracement that will give us an Agreement with one of these levels, we can enter short with stops above the recent swing down - 1.3380. The nearest target 1.3165
    When the market reestablish down move - move stop to b/e and watch how market will response in 1.3165 area. I still think that this area will not hold due to market behavior on daily time frame. It will really happen, then the next target is 1.30
     

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  2. sinibo johnson

    sinibo johnson Recruit

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    :) Thanks For This Analysis Just New Here But This Few Time I Have Gained Tremendiously .
     
  3. ochills

    ochills Master Sergeant

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    Good work Sive. thanks

    Hi Sive,
    pls do you have rules for identifying butterfly or Bat in the market? if YES can U pls share it with me bcos recently I can see bearish butterfly on GBP/JPY 15min,and daily but am not 100% sure. and even when it is butterfly how would you confirm when to pull the trigger or its failure.
    I saw ur butterfly on EUR/USD 1 hour. but pls ignite this dark area for me.
    thanks.
     
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Here is another one on 5-15min EUR chart...
    Well
    1. Butterfly is usually a retracement pattern - it means that before it we have to see move in opposite direction.
    2. Extremes of Initial swing of the left wing should hold - all past swings of the batterfly should be inside of the initial swing. Except the last extention swing of cause.
    3. Usually butterfly swings as follows - initial swing, then retracement from it (usually 0.618 or deeper) then retracement in turn, from this last swing (also 0.618 or deeper) and then the last swing - move to the target of butterfly.
    4. My experience tells me that I rare treat as a butterfly pattern with retracements lower than 50%. It's better to treat them as simple AB-CD moves.

    Now about to pull on the trigger. You should not do it blindly, just because market has reached 1.27 or 1.618 target of butterfly. This numbers just tell you where the area that you should watch for signals. So, watch for them. If you'll see, for expample, DRPO on lower time frame, or H&S, like we had with the recent hourly butterfly - that's it. No signal - no enter.
     

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  5. Jyotiprakash Pal

    Jyotiprakash Pal Sergeant

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    :)wow thanks again sive sir
     
  6. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 17, December 2010

    Good morning,
    On daily time frame I do not see any interesting to trade currently, so today we will focus on intraday issue.

    First of all, let's look at hourly chart. Market has reached 1.618 expansion target from first ABC top pattern and turned to retracement up. Currently I do not see any ABC's that allows us to estimate possible targets.
    But from the another point of view, (look at 15-min chart), we have a perfect 1.27 butterfly Buy pattern, (I've mentioned it yesterday) and, as you know, the target of this pattern is 1.618 expansion from the whole move of a butterfly. This area is just above the hourly confluence resistance. So, if you're bearish - watch for possible Sell signals, in this area. BUt currently I do not see any.

    Personally, I think that there is a better context exists currently (look at another hourly chart). This context is a possible B&B "Buy". We have nice thrust, it's not perfect, but sufficient. The first retracement through 3x3 could be bought. You can trade it just as B&B or use this context for entering in possible continuation of up move...
     

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  7. ochills

    ochills Master Sergeant

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    Thanks Sive

    I deeply appreciate your in-depth answers to my questions.
    thanks greatly.I love what you said."that's it. No signal - no enter".
    but if I may ask sir from the attached butterfly. how do u determined the expected right feather of the butterfly where price first target is expected to reach or test(127.2%) below 100% level.Pls I have ask this questions bcos I don't want to assume.
    thanks for your expected reply.
     
  8. King Midas

    King Midas Private

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    Sive:

    Thanks for the analysis. It is a great help.
    :)
     
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    I'm not sure that I've understand your question right...
    The target of butterfly is 1.272 or 1.618 expansion from the initial swing of left wing. And you should count it from the oposite extreme of the left wing.
    In our example, we have downward butterfly (this is "Buy" pattern), so you should measure the length between high and low of initial swing, mult it for1.272 or 1.618 and count it to the downside from the high of initial swing.
    With butterfly "Sell" all stuff will be vice versa.
     
  10. Baletnik

    Baletnik Recruit

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    Hello,

    Sive, I think he didn't ask about the targets of the butterfly but how do you spot a possible butterfly forming. For example, it's easy for me to look at it now and say oh, look there was the butterfly, it's so obvious, how didn't I see that. But yesterday, you showed us the possible butterfly even BEFORE it happened completely - the right wing wasn't completely formed and you predicted it correctly - that is the mistery to us :).

    That was somewhat violent move down in last 2 hours, doesn't look like a retracement, bearish engulfing on 3hr chart, can we call it W&R on 10-15min chart?

    Regards
     
    #30 Baletnik, Dec 17, 2010
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2010

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