FOREX PRO Weekly December 27-31, 2010

[Sive Morten]

AUD/USD Daily Update, Thu 30, December 2010

Good morning,
Yesterday market has reached 100% Fib target and possible retracement supposed to be reasonable.
Our long-term analysis suggests, that bulls still control the market and extended target is 1.030 area roughly.
Meantime, just above the market 1.017 is a 1.27 area of resistance from two different swings and daily overbought. So, possibly market will show some retracement from this area also.
On 4-hour chart we see that the recent swing up is 1.618 greater from the previous swing down. This ratio is very typical for H&S pattern and one of the scenarios - possibly retracement down will be as H&S. I do not want to say it has to be as H&S, but in fact it could.
If it will be really so, then we have couple of levels to watch for.
1. 0.9955-0.9962 Confluence support and possible Agreement (if it will be really H&S)
2. 0.9871 - Agreement.
If market still intends to move higer, it should not break below 0.9871, because if it will happen - it totally erases the previous swing up, and this is not typical for behavior after reverse H&S that we've discussed yesterday.
Also it contradicts with our expectations from weekly time-frame.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 31, December 2010

Good morning,
EUR has shown interesting price action, so let's shift back to it.
As you remember, in previous EUR research we've discussed MACDP failure pattern. It's target - previous high around 1.3370, that is coincides with 0.618 Fib target from the recent ABC move. So, it has happened and market has achieved it.
The next target is 100% expansion at 1.3578. But it's beyond daily overbought at 1.3445 and daily Confluence resistance at 1.3456-1.3465. So, it's not absolutely logical currently.
Meantime, market could form a Butterfly "Buy" pattern and we have excellent possibility to anticipate it. Having the strong area of resistance just above the market is very comfortable to place a stop order.

On 4-hour chart we see Agreement of 1.618 expansion with 0.88 Fib resistance and current nice thrust up. So if in this area - around 1.3440 market will form DRPO, for example, this will be an excellent oportunity to enter short with stops just above 1.35 area. If you are right then the 1.27 Butterfly target is 1.2820 if you are wrong - your risk less than 100 pips. Ratio is just amazing. Besides, your stop, that will be above daily Confluence and overbought will not be triggered ocasionally. So, look at 1.3430 area for signs of weakness and sell signals.

 

[Jyotiprakash Pal]

wow !!!!! great analysis ...... again sir