FOREX PRO Weekly July 09-13, 2012

[Triantus Shango]

it means 'something is rotten in the state of denmark' (to borrow a phrase from shakespeare--sorry, couldn't help it)

It is SAXO who first had LL and now has not; he, what does this mean?

 

[nicolebobbin]

Good morning,

Situation on daily time frame is the same but with just single difference - market is not at oversold anymore. Level for today is 1.2170 - next destination on daily chart. It includes 1.618 extension of AB=CD pattern, 1.27 Butterfly point, WPS1 and oversold. Precisely speaking, this is an area 1.2140-1.2170.

Still market holds at current level. Why? I suppose because it is a monthly 0.88 Fib support - 1.2260. But what could be minor for monthly time frame - could be enough for daily time frame for a bounce.

On 4 hour chart our potential DRPO pattern has failed. Still, looking at it, I can't call it DRPO, since second bottom is too small. When we deal with DRPO, we would like to see even greater second bottom as indicator that sellers try to push market lower but failed. Here we do not see it. Anyway, we will not discuss it any more. Still here we could get reversal pattern. This could be bullish wedge and 3-DRive buy.

On houlry chart it looks better. Also it is accompanied by nice MACD divergence at monthly support. That is very typical for exhausting patterns. Actually - that is the only pattern that I see here. So, what we can do from practical standpoint? Two things, I suppose:

1. As usual, appy partial entry. Your stop should be above 5/8 Resistance - this is rather far, so calculate your trading lot, it will be probably rather small. Although we see wedge at support and so on, but market is really heavy and nobody will guarantee that pullback will happen. And market is not at oversold anymore. So, you may enter with tiny lot here and add more at 1.2410.

2. Second way is trade by fact. But this way demands more skills, since you will have to deal with fast running market. It means - wait clear price action. If retracement will start - look for 1.2410 to sell. If market will break 1.2260 down and show fast downward acceleration - drop your time frame and enter short at nearest 3/8 resistance from most recent swing.

HI, Based on what that you decide whether market is at oversold yesterday but not today ?

 

[mrgummo]

Arrggg! Someday trading days start to feel like Vegas. I just wish that stubborn ol' market would follow the patterns it is supposed to.... Good luck today!

 

[Venelin]

IMHO 6h DRPO buy still in play :
View attachment 6030

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

it means 'something is rotten in the state of denmark' (to borrow a phrase from shakespeare--sorry, couldn't help it)

cant believe i didnt pick up on that!

 

[minimax]

Heh, yeah, good old Shakespeare!

This imbalance between FXCM and SAXO made me think a lot! Market can not be imbalanced, at least not for a long time so is today sooner or later?
I do not exclude one stair lower, and then wedge of which Sive is speaking could come, but.....
Somehow I treat this leg down as a motive wave, a regular impulse and SAXO made it in the beginning of this week FXCM could made it yesterday, if we do not make that wedge. Whatever, in next 5,5 hours I expect new POTENTIAL lower high fractal on 8H and there will be decided what and how.
In the picture I estimated that LL is in place and how I see near future. SAXO made much nicer 5 waves down, not exactly expanded by the book but accaptable, meanwhile FXCM made exhausted failed 5th wave (if it is!) and so 5 - 0 pattern could be expected. With 1,2400 both brokers will be in balance, more or less.

Good trading !!



ps
this is 8H TF, on Daily they both have no fractals from top to low

 

[Venelin]

Heh, yeah, good old Shakespeare!

This imbalance between FXCM and SAXO made me think a lot! Market can not be imbalanced, at least not for a long time so is today sooner or later?
I do not exclude one stair lower, and then wedge of which Sive is speaking could come, but.....
Somehow I treat this leg down as a motive wave, a regular impulse and SAXO made it in the beginning of this week FXCM could made it yesterday, if we do not make that wedge. Whatever, in next 5,5 hours I expect new lower high fractal on 8H and there will be decided what and how.
In the picture I estimated that LL is in place and how I see near future. SAXO made much nicer 5 waves down, not exactly expanded by the book but accaptable, meanwhile FXCM made exhausted failed 5th wave (if it is!) and so 5 - 0 pattern could be expected. With 1,2400 both brokers will be in balance, more or less.

Good trading !!

View attachment 6031

Hi guys,
let me try to explain-it is simple! Saxo`s quotes are 2 hours before (in advance) of most of the brokers as Saxo opens for trading at 8pm on Sunday London time-it catches as we know it the "premarket".Hence the difference with other brokers...Now -one can argue with the statement that futures(eurofx charts) are totally different! Cheers!

 

[Venelin]

Heh, yeah, good old Shakespeare!

This imbalance between FXCM and SAXO made me think a lot! Market can not be imbalanced, at least not for a long time so is today sooner or later?
I do not exclude one stair lower, and then wedge of which Sive is speaking could come, but.....
Somehow I treat this leg down as a motive wave, a regular impulse and SAXO made it in the beginning of this week FXCM could made it yesterday, if we do not make that wedge. Whatever, in next 5,5 hours I expect new POTENTIAL lower high fractal on 8H and there will be decided what and how.
In the picture I estimated that LL is in place and how I see near future. SAXO made much nicer 5 waves down, not exactly expanded by the book but accaptable, meanwhile FXCM made exhausted failed 5th wave (if it is!) and so 5 - 0 pattern could be expected. With 1,2400 both brokers will be in balance, more or less.

Good trading !!

View attachment 6031

ps
this is 8H TF, on Daily they both have no fractals from top to low

So what you saying is long to 1,24 is preferable to short to 1,2140

 

[minimax]

yes, only BB can change my opinion

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

what is BB, sorry still groggy