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FOREX PRO Weekly June 04-08, 2012

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Jun 3, 2012.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Monthly
    Looking at monthly chart something just forces me to say “No comments”. Trend is strongly bearish, market shows significant downward momentum – May’s candle shows extreme plunge – open at the high and close at the low. It is very hard to expect that market just will stop after such price action and start move in opposite direction. Still market has reached minor 0.886 Fib support. Since this is not some extension target and previous move was really strong, it’s hardly to expect deep retracement here, especially if we will take in consideration the moment that retracement after hitting of 0.618 Fib target just finished. So, if any pullback will happen there are two levels to watch – 1.2745 and K-resistance at 1.3030-1.3086. That is also previous swing low. Next target on monthly chart is 1.16-1.17 area.

    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    Trend is strongly bearish here as well. I’ve drawn the butterfly that we’ve once discussed on forum – market has reached 1.27 extension of it. But what is more significant is that market stands at weekly oversold. This could lead to some pullback or, at least to sideway choppy price action for some time. 1.618 extension stands around 1.21 area.
    Also we have new pivot points for June – MPP=1.2661 and it coincides with nearest Fib resistance, MPR1=1.2987 that stands inside of K-resistance area 1.2903-1.3007. Although context holds bearish this is not the best moment to enter short for positional traders.
    [​IMG]

    Daily
    As on previous week, it is difficult to see any patterns right after solid downward move, and, in fact, I do not see any. But we know that market at support and also at daily oversold. Right above the market there are two levels – First is 1.2450-1.2492 of WPP and nearest Fib resistance and second one, that should be in particular focus – 1.2620-1.2668 K-resistance, that also includes WPR1 and MPP.
    Another important moment that I would like to discuss is close standing of trend breakeven point (red line). If daily trend will turn bullish this could lead to deeper upward retracement and that is very probable due weekly time frame analysis.

    [​IMG]
    4-hour
    Trend turns bullish here, market is developing by long-term downward channel. Here is also bullish divergence and absence of any other patterns. Probably channel could give us some hint on potential retracement if market will break it up.
    [​IMG]

    Hourly
    Here is trend bullish, as well. Since market stands at 1.618 extension of previous swing up and this ratio is very typical for H&S patterns, I’ve drawn possible scenario here. If retracement will start it could be triggered by this reversed H&S. This is just an assumption, but currently market shows nothing more.
    [​IMG]



    Conclusion:
    Current situation on market shows that price has reached some targets, monthly support daily and weekly oversold. For positional traders this is not ideal situation to add more short positions or initiate new ones, since probability of retracement has increased.

    For short term traders – we must keep an eye on couple of moments in the beginning of the week, since they can tell us – will retracement happen or not. First is daily trend, second is 4H downward channel. Breaking both of them will tell that we will have to prepare for some upward pullback.
    Hourly chart should be controlled for any reversal patterns (one of them is H&S), since they could be an early indicator of 4H channel breakout.



    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Tue 05, June 2012

    Good morning,
    today price action is perfect for trend trading. Yesterday we've got two points that we've discussed - daily trend has turned bullish and market moved above WPP. So, we have bullish daily context and no bearish directional patterns - hence our direction is up.

    Next target on daily time frame is 1.2620-1.2668 K-resistance that also includes WPR1 and MPP and daily overbought. Since market has hit weekly oversold this gives us more chances that daily overbought will be hit. Another reason - MPP, it has not been tested yet and usually it happens.

    On 4-hour TF we see that market also creates and Agreement in the same area with 1.618 (1.2650) Fib extension target and no we have acceptable thrust for potential B&B "Buy". Trend holds bullish as well.

    Hourly trend is bearish. Since this is first pullback after significant move down, retracement probably will be deeper than first support level. My prefferable level to watch for Buy oportunity is 1.2445 K-support and WPP.

    If everything will be as we've just discussed - we should get B&B "Buy" on 4-hour TF, that should start from 1.2445 and should reach 1.2650 area. This trade also supported by daily and 4-hour trends. But this is perfect scenario - as a rule different skewing is possible.

    If you're long-term trader - sit on the hands as we've said in Weekly research.
     

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    #2 Sive Morten, Jun 3, 2012
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2012
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 06, June 2012

    Good morning,
    our yesterday trading plan with B&B "Buy" was more or less successful. Market has pierced K-support on 4-hour chart for 20 more pips, but B&B has worked nice - target has achieved by now.
    That's why you have to make choice - hold position longer, take profit or take a half, move your stop to b/e and watch what will happen next. And price action promises to be interesting...

    On daily TF all is the same - 1.2650 area is K-support, WPR1 and MPP. Also this is daily overbought.

    Most interesting price action is on 4-hour chart. Market has formed 2 side by side stop grabbers of my favorite shape. I prefer to get stop grabbers in the same direction as previous trhust was.
    Appearing of stop grabbers shifts probability in the way of taking previous high around 1.2545. If we will build a Fib extension that will see - 0.618 target stands precisely above 1.2545.
    Next thing, for longer perspective. If market will proceed higher (as daily chart suggests), then we have Agreement of AB=CD pattern inside of daily K-area. In case of appearing Butterfly "Sell" - that is also possible here, 1.27 point stands close to 0.618 target while 1.618 point stands also inside of daily K-area.
    That's why, it could become not bad idea to hold a part of position, since probability of upward continuation to 1.2620-1.2668 daily K-area is not small.
    But this choice is up to you. Taking profit only from B&B trade is also nice.
     

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    #3 Sive Morten, Jun 3, 2012
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2012
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 07, June 2012

    Greetings,
    Market gradually is approaching to our destination point 1.2620-1.2670. Today major focus is on target. Here is a bit tricky situation. MPP stands around 1.2660, while major targets stands around 1.2620 - near lower border of K-resistance area. But, from the other point of view, where to take profit - is not crucial moment if you still hold longs...

    So, on daily we do not see any new information.

    On 4-hour chart market really has turned to suggested butterfly, since it's appearing was quite logical. Market currently has hit 1.27 target and our 0.618 target of AB=CD pattern. Trend holds bullish. Next target is WPR1 and 1.618 extension of butterfly.

    On hourly chart trend turns bearish, but price action stands flat. If we will take into consideration the way how market moves up, then we'll see that leg is much steeper and shows no retracement after hitting of 0.618 and 1.0 extentions. Also this move up creates strong up bar on 4 hour TF right near the point of 1.27 extension of butterfly. THis also suggests that market should proceed slightly higher, at least to WPR1 and 1.618 target of Butterfly.

    So, we can say that there are some signs of further upward move at least to 1.2620-1.2630 area, but we can't say definitely will market reach 1.2660 and MPP or not. Here you will have to make choice where to close longs and hold some till 1.2660 or not.
    But it's better to close them around 1.2660 anyway - Daily overbought, MPP and daily K-resistance is a solid argument to that.
     

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    #4 Sive Morten, Jun 3, 2012
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2012
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    EUR/USD Daily Update, Fri 08, June 2012

    Good morning,
    Actually, this week was active and market has hit our target. So if you're happy with you results and not greedy, probably it makes sense to take some rest.

    For others here is idea for today.
    Currently on daily TF we have bearish directional pattern that calls "Stretch". This is combination of Overbought and strong resistance level. Such combination is rather solid and usually forces market to respect it. But trading it is a bit tricky, since usually it corresponded by choppy price action and has dynamic profit area (because levels of overbought and oversold are dynamic).
    Although trend on daily is bullish, but we know that Direction overrules trend so, our context for today is bearish. I suppose minimum target will be around 1.2450-1.2490 area - where daily DOSC=0. Second way how you can determine target is just follow intraday trend (4-hour) - once it will turn bullish - close position. But this could lead to loosing of some profit.

    IF you already has short position, you may take half profit and other half protect by breakeven s/l. If you do not have any yet - you will have to enter short at nearest resistance level on houlry chart - if market will not hit target faster, of cause.

    Why I talk about such close target is because of second and most important question, that usually arise at any retracement - will it be AB=CD retracement on daily or not?
    This is very probable because we at weekly oversold. Weekly DOSC=0 approximately around 1.30 That what is worry me in medium term perspective.
    So, it is better treat daily Stretch, just as short term "Friday" trade. Do not stick with it.
    Think twice before take it, since Stretch is rather tricky, as I said, since this is counter trend pattern and moving against trend always choppy and sloppy.
     

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    #5 Sive Morten, Jun 3, 2012
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  6. Lolly Tripathy

    Lolly Tripathy Master Sergeant

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    Thank you very much dear sive sir.. :)
     
  7. FreddyFX

    FreddyFX Sergeant

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    It seems to me the Big Dogs are just trying to fool the weaker brothers in taking the wrong directions these days........but for me, still DOWN EU.
     
  8. papao

    papao Private, 1st Class

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    ...talking about results...

    Hello everybody and thank you Sive for your analisys.
    Latest pages of the thread of last week makes me curious. I'd like to ask, to Sive and everybody, some statistics about your trading systems. (i'm not talking about the amount of dollar/euro you make each month (it depends on how much you can afford to trade), i'm talking about "relative" performances):

    - What is your average risk:reward ratio?
    - How many trades ends with a win? (how many are closed at break even?)
    - How many trades do you take monthly or every year?
    - How much do you risk in every trade (in percentage of your account)?

    For example, if you have a 2:1 R:R, 50% of winning, 25 trades monthly and 1% of risk every trade, you have a very very good system! Unfortunately, i'm still a break-even trader (let's say i have a 2:1 R:R, 30% winning, 20% breakeven, 50% losing trades, 30 trades monthly, 1% of risk every trade)... I'm happy to ear that some of you makes big money with trading (means that it's possible!), but it would be really helpful to me read something about how these results are made.
    Thank you :)
     
  9. Louis123321

    Louis123321 Corporal

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    I strongly agree... I think market is headed down even further as soon as it gets around 1.2455 level, max 1.2497. New sellers will probably be jumping in.. Also the huge EU stimulus pack / announcement supposed to be being released on the 7th.. Will not be in action for a while to come still, so there is time to get worse before the market can have another spike up.. Check out the recently 1.296 level.. on H4 timeframe. There was a bigger spike than this yet it plunged down in no time... ;)

    Also.. some possibly good news for the US is coming 'US Service Industries probably kept growing in may' - Bloomberg
     
  10. PETER SCALIA

    PETER SCALIA Recruit

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    Hello I share your pain Papao! I also am a break even trader. Unfortunately only 3-5 percent of the traders actually make big money hence you are unlikely to read their methods for two reasons: one there not many of them and 2 those who are making money probably are more than likelynot at these pages on the inteternet.
     

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