FOREX PRO Weekly June 18-22, 2012

[seedof]

Triantus
you said you just closed your sell, how come you had a sell when you were strongly a bull.
as for me my stop loss will soon be hit if it has not been hit while i'm typing @1.2530 because i assume once price break thru the K-support then no more upmove

 

[Triantus Shango]

because the 3-drive pattern and the concomitant sell butterfly were just a probability. and since all probabilities change every minute, this one seemed to gradually but surely go down to 0%. so i simply entered short once i could feel confident enough that i had garnered all the signals i needed to confirm a higher probability for the short trade rather than wait for 2800.

of course, i could have been horribly long, but my risk was well defined and even if my SL had got hit because the market resumed its uptrend, then i would simply have known i entered short too early, and after re-confirming the bullish uptrend, i would have gone long or if re-invalidating the bullish trend, i'd have waited to find a good entry point to re-enter short.

Triantus
you said you just closed your sell, how come you had a sell when you were strongly a bull.
as for me my stop loss will soon be hit if it has not been hit while i'm typing @1.2530 because i assume once price break thru the K-support then no more upmove

 

[Louis123321]

because the 3-drive pattern and the concomitant sell butterfly were just a probability. and since all probabilities change every minute, this one seemed to gradually but surely go down to 0%. so i simply entered short once i could feel confident enough that i had garnered all the signals i needed to confirm a higher probability for the short trade rather than wait for 2800.

of course, i could have been horribly long, but my risk was well defined and even if my SL had got hit because the market resumed its uptrend, then i would simply have known i entered short too early, and after re-confirming the bullish uptrend, i would have gone long or if re-invalidating the bullish trend, i'd have waited to find a good entry point to re-enter short.

Nicely done Mr Triantus, I have also closed small sells for a profit, market is at an important point now because it could return into the upward channel and form some pattern like this, I can see a potential butterfly buy if it does & that is only 1 pattern, market has also not quite gone low enough to 1.25300 support which to me hints on (IMO depending on the following news events today; German IFO mainly) market could be pushed up into the channel once again by some big news.

I haven't given up on upward continuation due to this & will probably close these buys if nothing good happens for the bulls after this news release OR if market will drop below 1.25300 level & hold there for a few hours depending on the price action.

Yesterday market was pushed down mainly due to news not technicals, here is what happened mainly in the news yesterday:

US unemployment was in the red once again.
US EXISTING home sales was in the red.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell from a 0.7 green expectation to a massive negative -16.6
Moodys downgraded the rating of 14 (!) banks & it is believed that US / UK banks will be downgraded very soon.
+ this was also a huge helping hand for the bears, goldman sachs analyst put a short sell target on the S&P500 index

Today it could get a lot worse but it could also get better before it gets worse, news yesterday was pressuring the eurousd to move down even more than it has been during this month anyway despite some QE3 excitement, but just remember that even despite all the news this month market TECHNICALS have been pushing it up for retracement, & it took a lot to bring it down just now.

Therefore based on these factors I wait on the news & price action to see what will happen today but I have buys in place now with reasonably tight stops since market has found support without actually touching 1.25300, and I am expecting it to go up once more, although I could be completely off hence my tight stops & market could just drop down & continue the longer time frames' bearish trend again bringing an end to this retracement. I hope this will not happen

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

first off, how about attaching a chart so we can have an idea what diagonal channel you're looking at?

2nd, i'd advise not to 2nd guess what these or those people might or might not be doing. it's next to impossible to know anyways. only the price action and the patterns on the chart matter.

3rd, price is inside 1st k-area on daily/H4 now (2565). what's the probability of a bounce up to the figure? what's the probability of staying here and consolidating until europe comes back tomorrow? what's the probability of total market panic and price dropping like a 200 ton megalith to the 2400 handle today?

i have no clue.

what we do know though is:

1- we have a nice context for DRPO or BnB on M15/M30/H1 (H1 not quite yet as price is still walking the band, that is, BB3 < p < BB2, where BB stands for Bollinger Band and the number indicates the standard deviation;
2- H4 is not OS yet;
3- current price level can be considered point D of an AB=CD structure in progress on H4 of which OP DiNapoli level or fib ext 100 has just been hit (good point to take some profit);
4- fib ext 127.2 = 127.2 fib node of most recent fib retrace structure (= approx. 2505)
5- DXY (USD index) has hit both a 50% and 61.8% retrace node and both occur at the same level.
6- finally, this latest drop might be forming the right wing of a gartley 222 buy on H4 (see chart).

those are the major technicals i see. so since i just closed my short, i am planning on enjoying the feeling of the win before risking the profits, if you know what i mean. ;-) no buy yet. i'll wait to see whether or not this will turn into some gartley or butterfly buy or not. the situation on daily and weekly also bears watching as we might have further downside at least till 2400.

BUT, like sive cautioned in is analysis today, as long as price doesn't break through the k-area on H4, there still is a possibility that price will bounce from here and complete the right wing all the way up around 2800; in this case A = C, which is OK; A > C is not OK.

hope this helps. cheers.

Dear brother Triantus,
is this bfly is valid..???
becoz as sive sir said buy bfly is not valid if it appear on top
and similarly sell bly is nt valid if appear on bottom

waiting for ur rply...

 

[Triantus Shango]

nice summary louis. i'd just like to add that there's also the issue of the SNB and the CHF peg. i read this morning that the SNB was selling e/u around the high yesterday via various proxies to unload all the euros they are buying just to maintain the peg. supposedly there we 20 to 50bln euros sold, some people say more. and sub-2000, in the 1990 area, there are supposed to be 30 to 50bln in sell stops (i.e. SL).

so, just based on that, my guess would be, barring some earth shattering announcements from monti and the gang later today, the pressure on the euro is on.

my strategy today will be to simply sell into the rallies. hopefully i'll find some nice entries. unless of course, the sentiment and overall picture morphs again. then i'll be long.

 

[Triantus Shango]

lolly,

it depends on how we define top and bottom. there are intermediate tops and bottoms, that is, between the extreme highs and lows. so you might have an intermediate top of a wave up from an extreme bottom, and yet, that top is still very close to the general bottom, which is what we have now.

so, personally, i'm paying attention to it as i believe it is valid. as an example, there is a beautiful buy crab pattern starting last FRI and completing on MON on M30. and it worked beautifully. so, why not?

cheers and best of luck.

 

[seedof]

triantus and louis
although i'm not much of a fundamentals fan until recently but the little i know is that since those negative news came out for US as louis as highlighted then price should have gone up and not down or is there something i'm missing out.
breaking news the rebels as been able to take out my defensive position @1.2530 at least i'm not taking as prisoner of war but only retreatin to reorganise strategy. louis louis they're coming for your soldiers too take cover.

 

[Joh]

Thank you Sive your dedication to teach us is just awesome . have a wonderful week end

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

sir,
for the 3drive sell fail iz 2440 area..???
that's a combine supprt area..

 

[Triantus Shango]

sive, could you please clarify the following? you wrote: 'now we have "222" buy pattern, since market has done nothing, but completed downward AB=CD pattern. From perspective of Fib work it gives us Agreement at 4-hour Confluence support .'

but as i look again at the H4 chart, pirce is currently (6.05 EST) below k-area. so k-area was broken.

so why do you write that AB=CD was completed and gives us an agreement at k-area?

i don't understand because market is below 100 FE and k-area, and thus could complete AB=CD at 127.2 FE, for ex. (i posted the chart yesterday for those who would like to see what i am talking about).

cheers.