FOREX PRO Weekly March 04-08, 2013

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

What you consider as a target of Engulfing pattern? Length of the whole pattern including shadows, or particular bar? I've checked in Military School, but I didn't find precise rule. Thank you.

Ivan

Hi Ivan,
this is not a rule of thumb, but I usually use whole bar with shadows if shadows are small and if pattern is near perfect with solid bodies.
If one bar significantly greater than the other (as it was on Weekly chart 2 weeks ago), then, I try to find pattern on lower time frame and use approximate length. Unfortunately there is no absolute things here. Treat it as some area +/- 20-25 pips and it will be OK.
Also it is important is any other singificant levels around, since they could become the real target and better to use them as a destination point. So, try to take wide view and compound the details together

 

[Zaleske]

The B&B we expected as of today's analysis failed, so it looks like short term southward movement is still unsure.
What troubles me as well is that although the upward channel on H1 we saw yesterday has been broken to the downside, move was equal to the width of said channel, so we may be looking at another one. See attachment.

 

[cosmos]

Sive, it looks like we could be getting set up for a double repo buy on the daily time frame if tomorrow makes new lows (unlikely after such a strong bar up). Otherwise, if bullish, we could be going up to 1.3250 next - do you concur?

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive, it looks like we could be getting set up for a double repo buy on the daily time frame if tomorrow makes new lows (unlikely after such a strong bar up). Otherwise, if bullish, we could be going up to 1.3250 next - do you concur?

Hi cosmos,
yes, I've missed the moment with DRPO, nice observation. Thrust is not perfect, but still, it could be acceptable.
Thanks.

 

[nirmal098]

Hi Sive,
I think the upward splash is just the result of ECB press conference. In your video you did not talk about that. Frankly I also thought this upward move will continue today.So I am totally confused now. Is Non farm payroll news would be positive for USD? As for little experience I am emotionally under pressure thinking that why I did not go long in euro yesterday. If non farm payroll news become positive for USD and after the news action should I long euro then.
Is that wise treating yearly pivot so important. I think the fundamental position is dominating over technical perspective.
Hope you would ans me.With regards.

 

[Don Jerzzy]

Sive u are d best, i hope trader didnt follow the unreal up trend...it would ve been a disaster. Thanks to Sive opinion.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
I think the upward splash is just the result of ECB press conference. In your video you did not talk about that. Frankly I also thought this upward move will continue today.So I am totally confused now. Is Non farm payroll news would be positive for USD? As for little experience I am emotionally under pressure thinking that why I did not go long in euro yesterday. If non farm payroll news become positive for USD and after the news action should I long euro then.
Is that wise treating yearly pivot so important. I think the fundamental position is dominating over technical perspective.
Hope you would ans me.With regards.

Hi Nirmal,
In general fundamental and technical approaches are not rivals, they are just different parts of the same picture. Technical analysis now is not just patterns, MA's and other things - this is market mechanics. Very often the same event could be treated as fundamentally as technically. From fundamental point of view - this might be some press conference or any other event but technically this leads to short covering and we look at it from that perspective.
Many traders confused, because they try to apply fundamentals on too short perspective - daily time frame or even hourly. This application looks doubtful. Yes, data surprise could shake the markets in short-term, but this is not a fundamentals per se. this is just surprise effect. Fundamentals will be, if under some regular and gradual change in data - currency shifts long-term trends as well. My thought is that fundamentals could impact the market on weekly and higher time frames. In fact, fundamentals tell us direction while technical analysis gives us the moment when to take position within this direction. So, it is imposible to trade fundamentals on hourly chart. And here is example - trend is bearish by fundamentals, but technicals tell that here might be pure technical pullback that could give us entry point in down direction that agrees with fundamentals.
Since currently trading is very fast - traders also use technical to not skip retracement as well. I do not see any problems with it. The major thing here is to understand that this is only for scalp trade, not for taking this position for long period.

 

[cosmos]

It looks like our double repo buy could happen.