Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
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Monthly
On monthly time frame we do not see any significant changes just yet. As we’ve noted on week before – market by February close has confirmed and finally formed bearish engulfing pattern right at major 50% resistance area, but it has not triggered yet, since market has not closed below engulfing low. Still this is important since technically this lets us to stick with this pattern and understand when we can speak about bullish or bearish trend. Thus, until market will not take 1.3730 high – it is difficult to tell about re-establishing of bullish trend. The target – minimum target usually is a length of the bars and it points on 1.2450-1.25 area.
Still in nearest future we still have to track action around yearly pivot…
Weekly
Actually here and on monthly chart there are no big changes. Past week was almost an inside one and has not changed situation drastically. Market still stands around weekly K-support area.
Trend is bearish here, market is not at oversold. Analysis of harmonic swings shows that current move down is much faster than previous one. This tells that market is rather heavier, and may be this is not a retracement already. Another nuance – market has exceeded the length of harmonic swing down. As we’ve discussed many times, it is quite often when market doubles harmonic distance as it breaks it. That’s why, actually this swing calls as “harmonic”. Following to that logic – the destination here is major 5/8 support at oversold – 1.2680 area. This is stand rather close to the target of monthly engulfing pattern.
In the beginning of the week looks like we again will be focus on weekly K-support. We do not see any bounce from it yet, while it should happen in most cases and currently it could happen as well. Besides, new MPP stands significantly higher than current price is, so, market could try to test it before will continue move down. On daily time frame price action approaches to crucial moment.
Daily
Here we have slightly new low but it still looks insufficient – since price has not reached 1.618 target and, in fact, remains inside of the range. At the same time here we see that by upward splash on Thursday market has accomplished harmonic upward retracement.
Another significant moment on this chart is daily bearish stop grabber. Although it simultaneously has achieved minimum target and has created new low – I hope that we will see some continuation and finally will reach daily target.
Second chart, by Cosmos observation – our forum member, shows possible DRPO “Buy” pattern that could trigger retracement up. Although thrust down looks a bit choppy, but may be it will work. Potential target of our desirable bounce up is daily K-resistance around MPP that also has not been touched yet. So, it looks like our entry setup will be based on this DRPO “Buy” and may be on some intraday patterns if we will find any.
4-hour
Although this time frame is not as informative for us as previous ones, but it shows that WPS1 stands around 1.2930 and this is suitable from perspective of 1.618 daily extension. How market will deal with yearly pivot – difficult to say. May be it will be some spike that looks prefferable, but may be market will deal with it later. All that I see here is just broadening bottom pattern, that potentially could be reversal, if price action will move above 1.3130 highs. That in general, agrees with potential daily DRPO pattern.
Conclusion:
On a big picture we could get the move even to 1.25 area, but now market stands at Weekly K-support and Agreement, new MPP has not been tested yet, and probability of upward bounce is solid.
Potential pattern that can appear here and let us enter long is DRPO “Buy”. Possible target is MPP and K-resistance area on daily chart.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
On monthly time frame we do not see any significant changes just yet. As we’ve noted on week before – market by February close has confirmed and finally formed bearish engulfing pattern right at major 50% resistance area, but it has not triggered yet, since market has not closed below engulfing low. Still this is important since technically this lets us to stick with this pattern and understand when we can speak about bullish or bearish trend. Thus, until market will not take 1.3730 high – it is difficult to tell about re-establishing of bullish trend. The target – minimum target usually is a length of the bars and it points on 1.2450-1.25 area.
Still in nearest future we still have to track action around yearly pivot…
Weekly
Actually here and on monthly chart there are no big changes. Past week was almost an inside one and has not changed situation drastically. Market still stands around weekly K-support area.
Trend is bearish here, market is not at oversold. Analysis of harmonic swings shows that current move down is much faster than previous one. This tells that market is rather heavier, and may be this is not a retracement already. Another nuance – market has exceeded the length of harmonic swing down. As we’ve discussed many times, it is quite often when market doubles harmonic distance as it breaks it. That’s why, actually this swing calls as “harmonic”. Following to that logic – the destination here is major 5/8 support at oversold – 1.2680 area. This is stand rather close to the target of monthly engulfing pattern.
In the beginning of the week looks like we again will be focus on weekly K-support. We do not see any bounce from it yet, while it should happen in most cases and currently it could happen as well. Besides, new MPP stands significantly higher than current price is, so, market could try to test it before will continue move down. On daily time frame price action approaches to crucial moment.
Daily
Here we have slightly new low but it still looks insufficient – since price has not reached 1.618 target and, in fact, remains inside of the range. At the same time here we see that by upward splash on Thursday market has accomplished harmonic upward retracement.
Another significant moment on this chart is daily bearish stop grabber. Although it simultaneously has achieved minimum target and has created new low – I hope that we will see some continuation and finally will reach daily target.
Second chart, by Cosmos observation – our forum member, shows possible DRPO “Buy” pattern that could trigger retracement up. Although thrust down looks a bit choppy, but may be it will work. Potential target of our desirable bounce up is daily K-resistance around MPP that also has not been touched yet. So, it looks like our entry setup will be based on this DRPO “Buy” and may be on some intraday patterns if we will find any.
4-hour
Although this time frame is not as informative for us as previous ones, but it shows that WPS1 stands around 1.2930 and this is suitable from perspective of 1.618 daily extension. How market will deal with yearly pivot – difficult to say. May be it will be some spike that looks prefferable, but may be market will deal with it later. All that I see here is just broadening bottom pattern, that potentially could be reversal, if price action will move above 1.3130 highs. That in general, agrees with potential daily DRPO pattern.
Conclusion:
On a big picture we could get the move even to 1.25 area, but now market stands at Weekly K-support and Agreement, new MPP has not been tested yet, and probability of upward bounce is solid.
Potential pattern that can appear here and let us enter long is DRPO “Buy”. Possible target is MPP and K-resistance area on daily chart.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
