Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 22 - 26, 2021

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,727
Morning everybody,

As we've said recently - context has changed as market was not able to realize good bullish setup. Now we have another bearish issue - price stands below broken lows without any attempt to show fast bounce or W&R. It makes us think that long-term bearish context is stepping in gradually, and on daily chart we should stay aside by far from any long positions. Next solid bounce supposedly could happen from 1.16 area:
eur_d_25_03_21.png


On shorter-term chart another bearish reason - market shows no reaction on XOP. For intraday traders we have two areas where theoretically minor bounce could happen. If you consider scalp long positions - take a look at 1.18 and 1.1740 areas. But do not count on strong action, focus on just minimal 30% pullbacks as overall context stands bearish.
eur_4h_25_03_21.png
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,727
And today another update instead of Gold - on GBP/USD.

As you remember, here we have medium-term scenario of downside reaction on weekly XOP target and daily butterfly that has started couple weeks ago. Our first target is reached - 1.3690 area, but in perspective of 1-2 weeks GBP could go lower as recent sell -off is rather strong.

Meantime, today-tom hardly we get strong downside action as price stands at oversold and Fib support area, forming DiNapoli bullish Stretch pattern. Scalp traders could consider bullish setups on intraday charts.

gbp_d_25_03_21.png


Still, major targets are yet been hit with major OP and butterfly extension still stand below current level. If you're watching for scalp long position - taking this into consideration and hide stop somewhere below OP, or even absolute OP around 1.3540.
Definitely this is not good moment for taking any new short positions:
gbp_4h_25_03_21.png


Before long entry it would be better to get some clear bullish reversal pattern on 1H and lower. Currently market hits local XOP but no patterns are formed yet:
gbp_1h_25_03_21.png
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,727
Morning everybody,

Recently we've explained why daily context has turned bearish and why it is mostly medium-term situation. This is the reason to watch for bearish setups and chances to go short. On daily picture our next target is 1.16 and while market is going there we consider selling rallies. Once it will be there - long position is possible as right arm of large weekly H&S pattern could start forming:

eur_d_26_03_21.png


On 4H chart the nearest destination point is 1.1740 - butterfly 1.618 extension. If any bounce starts from there - we could consider taking short position around 1.1850 or 1.19 K-areas:
eur_4h_26_03_21.png


Scalp traders additionally could keep an eye on short-term bullish setups, such as DRPO "Buy" as 4H thrust looks very good:
eur_4h1_26_03_21.png
 
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