FOREX PRO WEEKLY, May 01 - 05, 2017
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
yousimon
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are we need wait for drpo on daily to sell？
butcher
Private
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Market is very strong and we are bulllish. Our long term target stands around fırst LPO at weekly COP.
On the short term. We have 7 up bars over 3*3 bar and 8th bar is forming. We can use thrust trade plan go one llower tıme frame which is 4hr. Once we get sell sıgnal at 4hr we buy at first support node and place stop below confluence at 4hr. Profıt is OP at 4hr tımeframe.
If we waıt DRPO sell and ıt occurres thıs wıll be bearısh for our long term bıas.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Excellent snapshot Rodge! Actually you're helping me a lot with JPY analysis, since I just have no time to all setups that we have. Keep it up. Finally somebodu place his own analysis. That's the aim that we were coming to, when FPA just started educational part of forum.
The same is to Mistery well done.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,679
Good morning,
(Reuters) - The dollar hit a six-week high against the yen on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth and was seen as leaving the door open to raising interest rates in June.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday while emphasizing the strength of the labor market - a sign it was still on track for two more rate rises this year.
The central bank said consumer spending continued to be solid, business investment had firmed, and inflation has been "running close" to its target.
The dollar rose to 112.89 yen earlier on Thursday, its strongest level in more than six weeks. It later pared those gains and last traded at 112.76 yen, little changed from late U.S. trade on Wednesday.
The U.S. currency benefited as the Fed kept the door "wide open" to a June rate hike, said Mitul Kotecha, head of Asia macro strategy for Barclays in Singapore.
"The risk was that they could have perhaps sounded a little bit more dovish on the back of the recent data and that certainly wasn't the case," he added.
Private reports released on Wednesday supported the notion that the U.S. economic expansion remains on track despite a weak first quarter. U.S. companies hired workers at a slower but still-solid pace in April while the services sector grew more than expected, the reports showed.
The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.0895, regaining a bit of ground after falling 0.4 percent on Wednesday.
The euro has lost some steam after scaling a 5-1/2 month high of $1.0951 last week, when it rallied on relief over centrist Emmanuel Macron's victory against anti-euro nationalist Marine Le Pen in the first round of France's presidential elections. The runoff vote is on May 7.
An opinion poll showed that Macron was found more convincing than Le Pen in Wednesday's televised debate, reinforcing his status as favorite to win the second round of the election on Sunday.
"I think markets have largely already priced in a Macron win," said Kotecha at Barclays, adding that the latest poll result was unlikely to have much of an impact on the euro.
Investors are awaiting Friday's monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report, for further hints on the Fed's likely rate hike trajectory through the end of the year.
"There's been some dollar-buying globally," said Satoshi Okagawa senior global markets analyst at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, referring to the market reaction after the Fed meeting.
However, there is still uncertainty as to whether the economy is really on track for the Fed to raise interest rates twice more this year and to begin reducing its balance sheet, either in late 2017 or next year, Okagawa added.
The Australian dollar touched its lowest level in nearly four months at $0.7407. It was last trading at $0.7423, little changed on the day.
The Australian dollar is down about 0.9 percent so far this week, largely due to a shakeout in Aussie long positions.
As we've decided avoid EUR for awhile, although specified short term 1.0980 target, and yesterday we've talked on GBP, today we need to take a look at our another setup that we have - on NZD.
On GBP we haven't got yesterday upside continuation as Fed statement was mostly USD supportive, but, still, nothing dramatical has happened as well. Cable could turn to some sideways action for some time, as Parlament dismiss and early elections will make investors be careful.
Now, on NZD... Here we could say that upside retracement is over and market turns back to bearish trend. Kiwi again now stands in extension mode and our next destination point is AB=CD and butterfly target @ 0.6750. Retracement is over, because yesterday price has formed reversal session that as a rule indicates bearish reversal and continuation of the trend:
On 4-hour chart you can see that retracement is over around our "last edge" - 5/8 FIb resistance:
It means that on hourly chart we're coming back to common practice - monitoring thrust down and looking for rally to sell. Initially I thought that we could get here DRPO "Buy", that could provide excellent short entry opportunity, but this pattern has not been formed yet, and there is no guarantee that it will. We'll see. But anyway, tactics on hourly chart will be the same - as bearish trend re-established, watch for upside retracement to Fib levels where we could take short position:
(Reuters) - The dollar hit a six-week high against the yen on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth and was seen as leaving the door open to raising interest rates in June.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday while emphasizing the strength of the labor market - a sign it was still on track for two more rate rises this year.
The central bank said consumer spending continued to be solid, business investment had firmed, and inflation has been "running close" to its target.
The dollar rose to 112.89 yen earlier on Thursday, its strongest level in more than six weeks. It later pared those gains and last traded at 112.76 yen, little changed from late U.S. trade on Wednesday.
The U.S. currency benefited as the Fed kept the door "wide open" to a June rate hike, said Mitul Kotecha, head of Asia macro strategy for Barclays in Singapore.
"The risk was that they could have perhaps sounded a little bit more dovish on the back of the recent data and that certainly wasn't the case," he added.
Private reports released on Wednesday supported the notion that the U.S. economic expansion remains on track despite a weak first quarter. U.S. companies hired workers at a slower but still-solid pace in April while the services sector grew more than expected, the reports showed.
The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.0895, regaining a bit of ground after falling 0.4 percent on Wednesday.
The euro has lost some steam after scaling a 5-1/2 month high of $1.0951 last week, when it rallied on relief over centrist Emmanuel Macron's victory against anti-euro nationalist Marine Le Pen in the first round of France's presidential elections. The runoff vote is on May 7.
An opinion poll showed that Macron was found more convincing than Le Pen in Wednesday's televised debate, reinforcing his status as favorite to win the second round of the election on Sunday.
"I think markets have largely already priced in a Macron win," said Kotecha at Barclays, adding that the latest poll result was unlikely to have much of an impact on the euro.
Investors are awaiting Friday's monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report, for further hints on the Fed's likely rate hike trajectory through the end of the year.
"There's been some dollar-buying globally," said Satoshi Okagawa senior global markets analyst at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, referring to the market reaction after the Fed meeting.
However, there is still uncertainty as to whether the economy is really on track for the Fed to raise interest rates twice more this year and to begin reducing its balance sheet, either in late 2017 or next year, Okagawa added.
The Australian dollar touched its lowest level in nearly four months at $0.7407. It was last trading at $0.7423, little changed on the day.
The Australian dollar is down about 0.9 percent so far this week, largely due to a shakeout in Aussie long positions.
As we've decided avoid EUR for awhile, although specified short term 1.0980 target, and yesterday we've talked on GBP, today we need to take a look at our another setup that we have - on NZD.
On GBP we haven't got yesterday upside continuation as Fed statement was mostly USD supportive, but, still, nothing dramatical has happened as well. Cable could turn to some sideways action for some time, as Parlament dismiss and early elections will make investors be careful.
Now, on NZD... Here we could say that upside retracement is over and market turns back to bearish trend. Kiwi again now stands in extension mode and our next destination point is AB=CD and butterfly target @ 0.6750. Retracement is over, because yesterday price has formed reversal session that as a rule indicates bearish reversal and continuation of the trend:
On 4-hour chart you can see that retracement is over around our "last edge" - 5/8 FIb resistance:
It means that on hourly chart we're coming back to common practice - monitoring thrust down and looking for rally to sell. Initially I thought that we could get here DRPO "Buy", that could provide excellent short entry opportunity, but this pattern has not been formed yet, and there is no guarantee that it will. We'll see. But anyway, tactics on hourly chart will be the same - as bearish trend re-established, watch for upside retracement to Fib levels where we could take short position:
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,679
Good morning,
(Reuters) - The Canadian dollar set a 14-month low and the Australian dollar hit a four-month trough as oil prices slid on Friday, while the safe haven yen edged higher as risk sentiment wavered.
The Canadian dollar slipped to C$1.3790 per U.S. dollar at one point, its weakest level since late February 2016. The loonie was last down 0.3 percent at C$1.3786.
The Australian dollar slid to $0.7372 at one point, its lowest level since Jan. 11, last trading at $0.7381, down 0.4 percent on the day.
Commodity-linked currencies took their cues from a slide in oil prices, said Stephen Innes, a senior trader for FX broker OANDA in Singapore.
"I think that's really driving it... It's just a direct correlation with oil prices and a little bit of risk aversion coming into the dollar/yen," Innes said.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures slid 3 percent on the day.
The dollar fell 0.3 percent against the yen to 112.19, pulling away from a seven-week high of 113.045 yen set on Thursday.
The euro touched a six-month high of $1.0990 at one point, supported by expectations that centrist Emmanuel Macron will win the final round of France's presidential election on Sunday.
The euro last traded at $1.0985, little changed on the day but up 0.8 percent for the week.
Macron extended his lead in the polls over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, according to an Elabe poll for BFM TV and L'Express published on Friday.
Macron is seen getting 62 percent of the votes in the second round versus 38 percent for Le Pen, an increase of three points for the centrist candidate compared to his projected score in the last Elabe poll.
Investors are also awaiting Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for additional insight into the Federal Reserve's rate likely trajectory through the end of the year.
Attention will also be on Fed officials including Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, who are due to speak on Friday.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth, bolstering market expectations for the central bank to raise interest rates in June.
So, today on EUR guys... As you can see yesterday market has reached our 1.0980 target, that we've specified on Tue. As a result, price right now stands at daily Agreement resistance, as we have combination of two side-by-side AB-CD's and 1.0973 daily Fib resistance.
Technically, upside acceleration hints on some further upward continuation, but taking in consideration weekend France event - we mostly call to take profit and do not take part on a long side today. NFP is expected to be good and position closing could start closer to the end of the day. Other words, risks of going long and holding position through weekend are greater than advantages... But you will decide...
Besides, continuation will be shy 40-50 pips.. so, think twice before go long before NFP.
On 4-hour chart our butterfly has been completed as well, and, here you also could see next upside target. It stands at 1.1015. But as we've said above - we have real doubts that it will be reached:
If you're scalp trader and still would like to trade today - you can take a look at hourly DRPO "Sell" setup. It has 40-50 pips potential and could reach target very fast if NFP really will be positive.
For others, who mostly trade on daily chart - today is better to sit on the hands...
(Reuters) - The Canadian dollar set a 14-month low and the Australian dollar hit a four-month trough as oil prices slid on Friday, while the safe haven yen edged higher as risk sentiment wavered.
The Canadian dollar slipped to C$1.3790 per U.S. dollar at one point, its weakest level since late February 2016. The loonie was last down 0.3 percent at C$1.3786.
The Australian dollar slid to $0.7372 at one point, its lowest level since Jan. 11, last trading at $0.7381, down 0.4 percent on the day.
Commodity-linked currencies took their cues from a slide in oil prices, said Stephen Innes, a senior trader for FX broker OANDA in Singapore.
"I think that's really driving it... It's just a direct correlation with oil prices and a little bit of risk aversion coming into the dollar/yen," Innes said.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures slid 3 percent on the day.
The dollar fell 0.3 percent against the yen to 112.19, pulling away from a seven-week high of 113.045 yen set on Thursday.
The euro touched a six-month high of $1.0990 at one point, supported by expectations that centrist Emmanuel Macron will win the final round of France's presidential election on Sunday.
The euro last traded at $1.0985, little changed on the day but up 0.8 percent for the week.
Macron extended his lead in the polls over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, according to an Elabe poll for BFM TV and L'Express published on Friday.
Macron is seen getting 62 percent of the votes in the second round versus 38 percent for Le Pen, an increase of three points for the centrist candidate compared to his projected score in the last Elabe poll.
Investors are also awaiting Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for additional insight into the Federal Reserve's rate likely trajectory through the end of the year.
Attention will also be on Fed officials including Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, who are due to speak on Friday.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth, bolstering market expectations for the central bank to raise interest rates in June.
So, today on EUR guys... As you can see yesterday market has reached our 1.0980 target, that we've specified on Tue. As a result, price right now stands at daily Agreement resistance, as we have combination of two side-by-side AB-CD's and 1.0973 daily Fib resistance.
Technically, upside acceleration hints on some further upward continuation, but taking in consideration weekend France event - we mostly call to take profit and do not take part on a long side today. NFP is expected to be good and position closing could start closer to the end of the day. Other words, risks of going long and holding position through weekend are greater than advantages... But you will decide...
Besides, continuation will be shy 40-50 pips.. so, think twice before go long before NFP.
On 4-hour chart our butterfly has been completed as well, and, here you also could see next upside target. It stands at 1.1015. But as we've said above - we have real doubts that it will be reached:
If you're scalp trader and still would like to trade today - you can take a look at hourly DRPO "Sell" setup. It has 40-50 pips potential and could reach target very fast if NFP really will be positive.
For others, who mostly trade on daily chart - today is better to sit on the hands...
yousimon
Private, 1st Class
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- 35
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