FOREX PRO Weekly May 13-17, 2013

[BeeKay8]

Hey Sive,

Thanks a lot for your analysis.

I got a question for you.

I've seen you write numerous of times that you are NOT a breakout trader. This means that you probably knew to avoid the past couple of weeks consolidation which was very hard to trade. And, as DiNapoli says, "Loss of opportunity is preferred to loss of capital".

My question is, how are you able to determine WHEN price action is/will be consolidating like it has been? Also, when you say you are NOT a breakout trader, does this mean you don't JUST rely on the context, but ALSO wait for a true breakout for more confidence?

Context changed daily the past couple of weeks. Determining context is one thing but how are you able to determine it will be in consolidation? What I mean by that is that I am able to look at my timeframes and determine what kind of patterns are available, what trend is, where K-levels are to enter in direction of the context but how will I know it will be consolidating?

Is the only way to avoid trading in consolidation to wait for a true breakout everytime?

There were many, many stop-grabbers and butterflies the past couple of weeks which gave us context but in the end, due to consolidation, it was very hard to trade.

Thanks a lot, Sive! I appreciate your daily analysis and I look forward to your reply.

 

[think2]

HI SIVE.

Last time you`d spoken about 1,2875-2860 could be used for long entry as this level could bring first bigger retracement (if not reversal) after this drop. Now you speak only about some mini bounce potential - have you changed your mind or?

BRG
think

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

Hey Sive,

Thanks a lot for your analysis.

I got a question for you.

I've seen you write numerous of times that you are NOT a breakout trader. This means that you probably knew to avoid the past couple of weeks consolidation which was very hard to trade. And, as DiNapoli says, "Loss of opportunity is preferred to loss of capital".

My question is, how are you able to determine WHEN price action is/will be consolidating like it has been? Also, when you say you are NOT a breakout trader, does this mean you don't JUST rely on the context, but ALSO wait for a true breakout for more confidence?

Context changed daily the past couple of weeks. Determining context is one thing but how are you able to determine it will be in consolidation? What I mean by that is that I am able to look at my timeframes and determine what kind of patterns are available, what trend is, where K-levels are to enter in direction of the context but how will I know it will be consolidating?

Is the only way to avoid trading in consolidation to wait for a true breakout everytime?

There were many, many stop-grabbers and butterflies the past couple of weeks which gave us context but in the end, due to consolidation, it was very hard to trade.

Thanks a lot, Sive! I appreciate your daily analysis and I look forward to your reply.

The author phil miner makes a big deal out if the fact that we can never kniw when we will be in a range. Bevause we do not know beyond the right edge

 

[Sive Morten]

Hey Sive,

Thanks a lot for your analysis.

I got a question for you.

I've seen you write numerous of times that you are NOT a breakout trader. This means that you probably knew to avoid the past couple of weeks consolidation which was very hard to trade. And, as DiNapoli says, "Loss of opportunity is preferred to loss of capital".

My question is, how are you able to determine WHEN price action is/will be consolidating like it has been? Also, when you say you are NOT a breakout trader, does this mean you don't JUST rely on the context, but ALSO wait for a true breakout for more confidence?

Context changed daily the past couple of weeks. Determining context is one thing but how are you able to determine it will be in consolidation? What I mean by that is that I am able to look at my timeframes and determine what kind of patterns are available, what trend is, where K-levels are to enter in direction of the context but how will I know it will be consolidating?

Is the only way to avoid trading in consolidation to wait for a true breakout everytime?

There were many, many stop-grabbers and butterflies the past couple of weeks which gave us context but in the end, due to consolidation, it was very hard to trade.

Thanks a lot, Sive! I appreciate your daily analysis and I look forward to your reply.

Hi Brandon,
actually Quinch is right - we do not know in advance, whether we are in consolidation or not. But there are some moments that could help with it. First is higher time frame picture. If you have any patterns on weekly - they usually gives you direction, and on lower time frames you approximately assume that you want to see.
Second early caution that you can enter some choppy action is when market behaves not quite usual for trending type. For example, when you expect some continuatio after retracement but do not get it or other kind of action.
When you see that context is changing every day, it's better to stay aside or trade clear short-term patterns. When you start to see consolidation clearer - you can estimate breakeven points, as we usually do - "we will start to think about short entry if, say market will break this level or that level"

Speaking about breakouts - I'm not totally avoid them, since I even advise some times to use stop entry orders, but I try to not over rely on them and use it only if I have no other choice or risk with such entry seems lower.

HI SIVE.

Last time you`d spoken about 1,2875-2860 could be used for long entry as this level could bring first bigger retracement (if not reversal) after this drop. Now you speak only about some mini bounce potential - have you changed your mind or?

BRG
think

Hi, the reason for that is because initially we thought that market first will show move to 1.2850 and then move to 1.3250, but now market already has hit 1.3250 and we have bearish pattern on weekly chart that suggests taking out daily lows.
Second reason is you never know what kind of bounce will be, until market will not reach this level, since you need to see the way how this level will be reached - gradually or by fast dropping, what else will be around - we couldn't predict before that here will be Pivot supports and some AB-CD targets and so on...

 

[soldier1]

Hi Sive,
Million thanks for your analysis!
I want to show two EUR/USD charts. Maybe it will be interesting for the forumers. It is 2nd test of down border of the 4h channel. http://charts.mql5.com/1/556/eurusd-d1-alpari-uk-ltd.png & http://charts.mql5.com/1/556/eurusd-h4-alpari-uk-ltd-2.png Is it the end of the sideways range on daily TF?
Wish you and FPA comunity all the best!
soldier1

 

[MidnightRun]

Sive wrote in his today's update:
"...As a rule, when EUR stands with trend action it shows 3/8 retracements - and it could re-test previous low (between two tops) on daily chart. So don't be upset if you've missed yesterday's B&B "Sell" entry oportunity. another one could come soon..."

That previous low would be in the 1.2950 area - am I seeing it correctly?
Thanks.

 

[BeeKay8]

The author phil miner makes a big deal out if the fact that we can never kniw when we will be in a range. Bevause we do not know beyond the right edge

Hi Brandon,
actually Quinch is right - we do not know in advance, whether we are in consolidation or not. But there are some moments that could help with it. First is higher time frame picture. If you have any patterns on weekly - they usually gives you direction, and on lower time frames you approximately assume that you want to see.
Second early caution that you can enter some choppy action is when market behaves not quite usual for trending type. For example, when you expect some continuatio after retracement but do not get it or other kind of action.
When you see that context is changing every day, it's better to stay aside or trade clear short-term patterns. When you start to see consolidation clearer - you can estimate breakeven points, as we usually do - "we will start to think about short entry if, say market will break this level or that level"

Speaking about breakouts - I'm not totally avoid them, since I even advise some times to use stop entry orders, but I try to not over rely on them and use it only if I have no other choice or risk with such entry seems lower.



Hi, the reason for that is because initially we thought that market first will show move to 1.2850 and then move to 1.3250, but now market already has hit 1.3250 and we have bearish pattern on weekly chart that suggests taking out daily lows.
Second reason is you never know what kind of bounce will be, until market will not reach this level, since you need to see the way how this level will be reached - gradually or by fast dropping, what else will be around - we couldn't predict before that here will be Pivot supports and some AB-CD targets and so on...

Thanks a lot, Sive and Quinch!

Best,
Brandon

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

I want to learn more about market delta (or volume delta)charting. I wonder how consolidations etc will look on those.

 

[think2]

... I can't exclude that some profit taking could come tomorrow, since this was the first week of active trend, but I'm not sure about it. ...

HI SIVE. What do you mean by that statement? Something like sudden drop down to 1,2680 (0,618 fib)?

 

[Ghandi1]

HI SIVE. What do you mean by that statement? Something like sudden drop down to 1,2680 (0,618 fib)?

I think Sive means that traders with short position will take some profit and in that case there will be a pullback.