Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, May 17 - 21, 2021

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,845
EUR/USD has been too bullish all week and I believe Friday will see the pair settle down to where it started on Monday...i.e. around the 2.215-2.216 areas. Why? There don't' seems to be any real reason(s) other then that Investors are still in wait-and-see mode.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,874
Morning guys,

Rahman, and I see a bit different background somehow... Yesterday upward action, based on our 4H B&B Buy was stronger than minimum target, which stands in favor of upside W&R of previous top and reaching COP rather than deeper retracement. ;)
eur_d_21_05_21.png


On 4H chart we could see how market completes B&B, almost returning back to the top. Since daily COP stands above the top - chances on W&R and upside spike are significant
eur_4h_21_05_21.png


On 1H chart, we have minor XOP that stands above the top as well, but XA swing extension is more important, as daily COP might be completed by upside butterfly pattern. This is still not a good point for taking new long positions, as daily reverse H&S is still possible. But, for scalp traders who intend to go short, it might be important. In current condition it would be better to postpone entry until butterfly hits daily COP, or we get clear signs of its failure.
eur_1h_21_05_21.png
 

S.chakrabortty2011

Private, 1st Class
Messages
60
On 4H chart we have a kind of B&B "Buy" trade, suggesting at least 5/8 upside bounce. So if you have taken long position recently - now its time to move stops to breakeven and think about either to book result at B&B target or not:
Dear Sive sir,
As i remember B&B is 3 candle pattern. market has to reach 3/8 at least within 3 candle. here market took 4 candle to reach. in the third candle there was a huge upward spike and 4th candle was solid body bear which probably indicates more bearish scenario. in this scenario does not negate B&B scenario? Please clarify my doubt
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,845
Morning guys,

Rahman, and I see a bit different background somehow... Yesterday upward action, based on our 4H B&B Buy was stronger than minimum target, which stands in favor of upside W&R of previous top and reaching COP rather than deeper retracement. ;)
View attachment 65107
Hi Sive...I value your analysis and opinion and will watch for that upside W&R.
Today, 21-May-2021, that 1.22410 level seems to be a hard nut to crack which might or might not go through at or before start of the US open.
Thanks Sive and all the best.
 

netbusinessman

Private, 1st Class
Messages
43
Morning guys,

Rahman, and I see a bit different background somehow... Yesterday upward action, based on our 4H B&B Buy was stronger than minimum target, which stands in favor of upside W&R of previous top and reaching COP rather than deeper retracement. ;)
View attachment 65107

On 4H chart we could see how market completes B&B, almost returning back to the top. Since daily COP stands above the top - chances on W&R and upside spike are significant
View attachment 65108

On 1H chart, we have minor XOP that stands above the top as well, but XA swing extension is more important, as daily COP might be completed by upside butterfly pattern. This is still not a good point for taking new long positions, as daily reverse H&S is still possible. But, for scalp traders who intend to go short, it might be important. In current condition it would be better to postpone entry until butterfly hits daily COP, or we get clear signs of its failure.
View attachment 65110
Dear Sive Sir,

I have one question regarding strong confluence ( agreement, DiNapoli Levels ) if ABCD patteran completed near other fibo number let say 50% or 78.6% so in that case it will be also agreement mean strong confluence,

For example in USDCAD Monthly chart their is ABCD Pattren completed on 50% fibo retracement.

Screenshot_2.jpg
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,874
Hi Sive...I value your analysis and opinion and will watch for that upside W&R.
Today, 21-May-2021, that 1.22410 level seems to be a hard nut to crack which might or might not go through at or before start of the US open.
Thanks Sive and all the best.
Hi Rahman,
It seems that you were right on price action - 1.2150 indeed. :) Probably I've confused you a bit:confused:.

Dear Sive Sir,

I have one question regarding strong confluence ( agreement, DiNapoli Levels ) if ABCD patteran completed near other fibo number let say 50% or 78.6% so in that case it will be also agreement mean strong confluence,

For example in USDCAD Monthly chart their is ABCD Pattren completed on 50% fibo retracement.

Hi mate, well, as all these terms, such as Agreements, Confluence etc. are invention of DiNapoli, strictly speaking we do not have them around minor levels such as 50, 78.6, 88.2 etc.

Agreements with minor levels definitely are weaker than major ones. Also I wouldn't call as K-area combinations like 0.5+0.786.

Still, we should avoid any formal approach to the markets as well. Just keep an eye on the price shape. In your example CD leg looks fast, showing acceleration down. And Agreement with 50% or 78.6 level looks doubtful, not reliable. But if we would have gradual CD leg, or slowing one - Agreement with secondary levels could work. In two words speaking - for the weaker support to work it should be weaker bearish action.
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,845
Hi Rahman,
It seems that you were right on price action - 1.2150 indeed. :) Probably I've confused you a bit:confused:.


Hi Sive…from a technical point of view, you are 100% correct that the risk remains skewed to the upside. Daily chart also indicates bulls retain control.

From my fundamental rational, FED Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times that the current policy will remain in place until they see “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and price stability which would likely be some time until the economy had made substantial further progress toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
The pair bottomed around 1.2160 multiple times these last few days and, devoid of earth shattering economic news, the tendency is to go back to around the same level as the week started.

Never doubt that your analysis is of great help to me in my trading decision.
Thank you very much for all your hard work and dedication to providing us excellent analysis and reports.
All the best and stay safe!
 
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