FOREX PRO Weekly May 28 - June 01, 2012

[Lolly Tripathy]

30 min chart

 

[squidge42]

DRPO failure query

hey all..

question on DRPOs..must price penetrate 3x3 and close twice before we can look for the failure signal..or can we look for unconfirmed failures etc.

thanks

 

[h0rked]

Hi,
Here is an example



For Buy DRPO it should close Above,Below,Above .
For Sell close Below,Above,Below.
The failures is after the last close it goes on the other side and you can trade it as well ..

hey all..

question on DRPOs..must price penetrate 3x3 and close twice before we can look for the failure signal..or can we look for unconfirmed failures etc.

thanks

 

[squidge42]

thanks..yeh i understand the conditions...just wondering if there's such as thing as failure on an unconfirmed...eg it makes the 2nd break but doesnt close the other side and moves and closes at more than 61.8 of the consolidation

 

[Triantus Shango]

i'd say that DRPO/directional signals by themselves are not always enough to gauge the context. it's not an exact science, actually not a science at all. that's why you might get a weird looking DRPO that probably shouldn't work according to the textbook def, but still does BUT because of other conjoined factors, all of which define the context at that particular point in time. that's why i don't just rely on dinapoli's approach, but use a multi-variate approach. that way, i always have a context def, even when one particular approach has nothing to say about the current conditions. the key is to use a model that overlaps as much as possible with what the movers are looking at. that way surprises are minimized. a simple example: selling rallies at 38.2% or 61.8% works because everyone and his dog are thinking that it works and act accordingly. so if you use multiple tools that are used by most, you increase the probability that some of these tools will give you an actionable signal. so it doesn't really matter that much whether a DRPO is exactly or not invalidated.

thanks..yeh i understand the conditions...just wondering if there's such as thing as failure on an unconfirmed...eg it makes the 2nd break but doesnt close the other side and moves and closes at more than 61.8 of the consolidation

 

[seedof]

market closed as a doji guess sellers are relaxin to see what non farm payroll will be.

 

[Louis123321]

These are surely great times for the bears! I have some huge sells at 1.236 levels with stops at 1.21100.

Note that tomorrow we have a lot of important economic data being released... From Europe then the NFP from US .. So depending on the NFP, I am personally expecting EURUSD to plunge down into the abyss ... Around 1.21

 

[Sive Morten]

thanks..yeh i understand the conditions...just wondering if there's such as thing as failure on an unconfirmed...eg it makes the 2nd break but doesnt close the other side and moves and closes at more than 61.8 of the consolidation

Hi Squidge,
There is not such thing as unconfirmed DRPO Failure. Since there is no DRPO - nothing could fail.

 

[asif faryad]

Hi Louis hope your well.

Note Never expect anything from the Markets..As the market can do anything at any given moment,

Dont get caught up in your stories as otherwise this business for those of us that work it that way can get dissapinting.

Follow your plan and its just a game of probabilities! but you amy be correct as according to my trading plan there seems a greater probability of a further downward step down.

As i have noticed on this Forum a lot people are so in grossed with their story in being correct,this is NOT A CRITICISM just an observation to hopefully help.

This is just a game of probabilities!!!! have a good trade plan and edge in our case the edge is (Sive) have a plan depending on which type of trader you are and when you see an opportunity without being influenced by the comedy channels like bloomberg CNBC etc ACT and you will have a great business and good life..

Best

Asif

 

[seedof]

can someone please explain possible expectation and how to react to the NFP news this afternoon especially with regard to current market trend. thanks