FOREX PRO Weekly November 14-18, 2011

pragmatic

Corporal
Messages
109
broker

Hey Sive!!! I am absolutely delighted with TradeNavigator, alomst each day I discover something new from it that is completely usefull, and the best part is I still have a lot to discover. I have bought Dinapoli Thrust Scanner aswell. Although I do not have a securities account (yet) i'm monitoring some stocks that have been filtered through the scanner in order to see their development as I am new to the stock market.
Thanks for keeping an eye on me, it's much appreciated!!!!!!!! have a good day!!!
Ooh, may I ask wich futures contract you use for weekly review???? :D
hey Damian!
I see that you are growing as a trader. Good luck to you! The big question remains still: do you have a trustful broker, one that gives you your money? No mater what tools we are using, we still have to cash in. If you find such kind of a broker could you share it? If it is not much trouble please write to my mail box to avoid advertising.
Thank you!
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,733
Hi Sive!! thanks for the update. I'm quoting you right here since I wanna understand the way you think. I agree that when big thrusting bars hit an LPO we normally expect the next one to be reached (or at least in this case 1.27) . The thing that worries you here was the loss of momentum on the 4h chart?? A big bar down that didn't reached the OP + a bar that showed indecision?? so if this is true that's the reason why you where expecting some retracement, is that it?? OR are you considering that the OP was practically reached and you where expecting the normal retracement of at least .382 after hitting 1.00 expansion???????
thank you !!!
Hi Damian, let's move through it step by step.
First, we have bearish context and have no bullish directional patterns. That's why we can treat potential move after AB-CD as retracement. Since we have no directionals - this will be pure trend trade, btw - based on lower time frames. Since in this case we will have to trade against major trend (daily) our LPO should be close. The nearest one is 1.3515 resistance.

Second, about thrusting bar right at AB-CD completion point. Since our context is bearish, such kind of bars very often lead ot failure of AB-CD patterns and market falls deeper - at least to 1.27. That's why current situation was a bit riskier than usual. In such case we've said - look lower time frames around 1.3420 area. If there will appear some patterns that you can stick to - that's good, you may try. But in general, that is secondary question for us, since our task is to use this retracement to enter short, but not buy it. I've posted it as additional material - may be somebody will try to trade it.

About third question - you're right. Still, this is AB=CD and normal price action - at least 0.382 respect of its completion. Now, I probably move to thought, that as a "A" point we should have to use 1.3838 (from which move directly has started) but not 1.3858. In this case OP target wil be right at 1.3440 and puzzle collects. THis explains why market has not moved a bit lower.

Still, if you've entered long with stop below larger OP=1.3420 - you should not grumble currently :) - market has reached even second K-resistance at 1.3560-1.3570.
 

Damian1987

Corporal
Messages
149
hey Damian!
I see that you are growing as a trader. Good luck to you! The big question remains still: do you have a trustful broker, one that gives you your money? No mater what tools we are using, we still have to cash in. If you find such kind of a broker could you share it? If it is not much trouble please write to my mail box to avoid advertising.
Thank you!
Hi. thanks for your kind words. check your inbox.

Hi Damian, let's move through it step by step.
First, we have bearish context and have no bullish directional patterns. That's why we can treat potential move after AB-CD as retracement. Since we have no directionals - this will be pure trend trade, btw - based on lower time frames. Since in this case we will have to trade against major trend (daily) our LPO should be close. The nearest one is 1.3515 resistance.

Second, about thrusting bar right at AB-CD completion point. Since our context is bearish, such kind of bars very often lead ot failure of AB-CD patterns and market falls deeper - at least to 1.27. That's why current situation was a bit riskier than usual. In such case we've said - look lower time frames around 1.3420 area. If there will appear some patterns that you can stick to - that's good, you may try. But in general, that is secondary question for us, since our task is to use this retracement to enter short, but not buy it. I've posted it as additional material - may be somebody will try to trade it.

About third question - you're right. Still, this is AB=CD and normal price action - at least 0.382 respect of its completion. Now, I probably move to thought, that as a "A" point we should have to use 1.3838 (from which move directly has started) but not 1.3858. In this case OP target wil be right at 1.3440 and puzzle collects. THis explains why market has not moved a bit lower.

Still, if you've entered long with stop below larger OP=1.3420 - you should not grumble currently :) - market has reached even second K-resistance at 1.3560-1.3570.
awww Sive!! You've just made me have like 3 "A-HA" moments thanks to this post. The most revealing thing to me in this case was the change of the focus number of point A of AB=CD. now I see the dynamics of it and I will pay more attention to these fluctuations of target areas. Unfortunately I did not took any longs nor shorts, I was having concentration problems this morning :err: , for tomorrow I will certainly put "exercise" as one of the things to do before starting the trading day. Anyways thank you so much on that insight, it's been very helpfull in order to breakdown your line of thought step by step. Have a good afternoon over there!!! best regards, Damián.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,733
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 17, November 2011

Good morning,
current situation on EUR is very interesting. Still, on daily time frame there is nothing new to discuss - situation is the same. Our major attention will be with intraday charts, and mostly with 4-hour:

4H
Trend is bullish. Yesterday we've said, that this could be B&B or DRPO. So, B&B has happened. Usually, they could not come simulteniously, since their price action excludes each other. Thus, B&B shows deep retracement during first penetration of 3x3, while DRPO does not like it. Still, today such situation when we can see some combination of completed B&B (the target has achieved) and DRPO LAL. Although market has shown deep retracement during frist penetration, that is not so good, later it has shown new lows and hit AB=CD target that action has restored some balance between those how took profit and those who jumped it on potential bearish breakout. But breakout has failed and traders were trapped in wrong position. This is good for DRPO LAL.

now take a look at another 4-hour chart - there is a bullish stop grabber, and it's target at least 1.3550-1.3560 area. Since this level has been touched already - the continuation to 1.3625-1.3651 also probable. When those traders who were trapped on bearish will start to be stopped out - market will accelerates to the upside. Their stops somewhere above K-resistance area.

On hourly chart we see nice and clear Double Bottom. Classical target is distance between neckline and bottoms, that agrees with 1.3650 area aproximately.

So, we have excellent bullish context, and absolutely clear crucial levels:
Low at 1.3420 - if market will close below it - it will erase stop grabber, DRPO and Double Bottom, and probably will continue move down
and 1.3550 area as minimum target. If market will proceed higher - then 1.3625-1.3650 is the next destination point
 

Attachments

habibzadeh

Recruit
Messages
6
Can I get your opinion on the GBP?

Dear Sive,

Thanks for great analyze on euro,


I would appreciate it very much if you could express your opinions on bullish stop grabber on the GBP monthly chart.


Thank you
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,733
Dear Sive,

Thanks for great analyze on euro,


I would appreciate it very much if you could express your opinions on bullish stop grabber on the GBP monthly chart.


Thank you
Hi Habibzadeh
This is really stop grabber, the failure point is a low at 1.5180. But if you will take a look at weekly time frame - currenty market is showing solid bearish dynamic pressure. So this makes monthly stop grabber not very reliable, it's better to say if you even want to deal with it - do it with caution.
 

Venelin

Master Sergeant
Messages
392
Hi, Sive! Genius analysis as always! I just want to ask, can we still treat H4 DRPO, hence long signal currently close above 3x3 at 1.3495? Or this is just W&R and some sort of stop grabber?
 

habibzadeh

Recruit
Messages
6
Hi Habibzadeh
This is really stop grabber, the failure point is a low at 1.5180. But if you will take a look at weekly time frame - currenty market is showing solid bearish dynamic pressure. So this makes monthly stop grabber not very reliable, it's better to say if you even want to deal with it - do it with caution.
Thanks a lot for great advice.


Best Regards
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,733
Hi, Sive! Genius analysis as always! I just want to ask, can we still treat H4 DRPO, hence long signal currently close above 3x3 at 1.3495? Or this is just W&R and some sort of stop grabber?
Hi Venelin,
price action is not common for DRPO. Now it mostly stop grabber at 4-hour, 2 stop grabbers on hourly and potential butterfly "sell".
 

navk

Recruit
Messages
7
Sive,

I read your analysis and appreciate that it happnes most of days.

But of late you will agree with me that technicals do not drive the market but the price moves based on just roumour mills and news.

Technically the price tried to test 1.3550 levels first today as you indicated but it failed at 1.3540 and dropped to 1.3450 level by the time I am writing.

In my opinion it is ragnge bound and neither sellers nor buyers have upper hand due to roumour mills. What I can see is that the price tried to correct more than 1.3550 four times and each time it failed. But untill now 1.3430/20 is still holding before breaking. May be today in asia ? I will write further after it happened.
 
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