Hello Sive. I missed EURUSD sell entry by only a couple of pips (during the night time where I live). Do you expect the pair to make back up some higher level again from where we might enter short? Or even to still hit 1.3797?
Our B&B trade has done well. Currently market is struggling with further down move and I think, that it can show some retracement to the upside.
At the same time there are some important moments on daily time frame, that make me count on further move down;
1. After strong sell-off market has shown only 3/8 retracement;
2. Daily trend is bearish, and market neither oversold nor overbought
3. there is a nice bearish engulfing pattern on daily time frame
4. ABC target and Butterfly target Agree with 1.3250-1.3370 area of weekly support.
Now, in shorter-term... Personally, today, I'll be watching for retracement to 1.3610-1.3625 area - weekly pivot point and hourly confluence resistance. Move to this area should be gradual. If I'll see some signs of weekness there -then possibly I enter short with the target at least weekly pivot support 1 at 1.3494. Also there is an hourly ABC target at 1.35.
Just couple of warnings - if market will blast off through weekly pivot - don't be short. It means that retracement will be deeper on daily time frame. Second - tommorow market will be thin due Thanksgiving's eve.
yesterday market has not even reached our level of resistance to for entering on the short side of the market and shown strong sell-off right to upper border of our weekly support area 1.3250-1.3370.
Now, on daily time frame the next target is 1.3270 and I think that it should be achieved. In fact, the trading plan for the rest of the week is the same - use retracement on lower time frame to enter Short with target at 1.3270.
There are couple of levels to watch for - 1.3460 and 1.3520. If you'll see any ABC's that makes an Agreement with one of these levels, so, you can enter short.
Usually when the a fibonacci retracements point have been 'overrun', it is discarded.
But what about pivot points that have been overun? e.g. penetrated initially early in the day, but retraces back to it - is it considered a good confluence area if there is a fibonacci retracement level there? And previous weekly/day highs and lows?
In determining a good confluence level, what is your rule of thumb