FOREX PRO Weekly November 26-30, 2012

[asif faryad]

Some interesting discussions but...

LeonPetrus
Losing two months profit in four hours is nothing to do with the markets behaving differently from Sives analysis.
If you had the correct trade size and your stops set in the right place then it would have just been one losing trade which would have cost whatever your maximum risk per trade was.

Mjunkyard
I didn't have a "miserable failure on Wednesday". I had a losing trade. I've had lots of those and plenty of winners too. My system has an edge which if traded correctly means that I will make a profit overall. Losing trades are a natural part of that system and tight money management is essential!!!

As recommended by many here, have a read at Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas

All the best

Michael

Brilliant !!!!! You certainly are becoming a new person ))

 

[mjunkyard]

Some interesting discussions but...

LeonPetrus
Losing two months profit in four hours is nothing to do with the markets behaving differently from Sives analysis.
If you had the correct trade size and your stops set in the right place then it would have just been one losing trade which would have cost whatever your maximum risk per trade was.

Mjunkyard
I didn't have a "miserable failure on Wednesday". I had a losing trade. I've had lots of those and plenty of winners too. My system has an edge which if traded correctly means that I will make a profit overall. Losing trades are a natural part of that system and tight money management is essential!!!

As recommended by many here, have a read at Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas

All the best

Michael

I agree with you 100%. I used the language "failed miserably" because that's how Sive called it, in the following update. It's obvious that one should not lose in one trade gains of two months. Thanks for the recommendation. I'll get the book.

 

[4x4Ever]

Another source for information on retail/liquidity sentiment figures is here: SWFX Sentiment Index :: Dukascopy Bank SA | Swiss Forex Bank | ECN Broker | Managed accounts | Swiss FX trading platform

I also like to keep tabs on this kind of info, if too many are buying or selling a pair or currency then you may be near an over bought/sold condition. So you can look for a pull back or possible reversal.

Haven't posted in awhile but still many thanks to you Sive for all your help and to all of you for the posts and debates I think it all helps keep us honest

Keep it real and trade safe my friends

 

[BeeKay8]

Lost my wallet today.... AND sunglasses. What a bad start to the week!!!

 

[LeonPetrus]

Some interesting discussions but...

LeonPetrus
Losing two months profit in four hours is nothing to do with the markets behaving differently from Sives analysis.
If you had the correct trade size and your stops set in the right place then it would have just been one losing trade which would have cost whatever your maximum risk per trade was.

Dear Micheal,

Having been stopped out so many times I don't like to put stops even the ones suggested by Sive. When I trade I normally follow the market and if the situation changes dramatically I then take the decision to close my trade. As I said this time I was so convinced nothing could go wrong and I opened a way to big position and left my computer to take care of my "real" day job. To my own regret it now seems. Need to be less sure and I would not have lost all that much. Also I'm not blaming anybody but myself for that loss. Another lesson learned.

Really interesting discussion at the moment. Thanks to Mjunkyard for the link and Micheal for the reference, will or have already check(ed) them out.

Have a great day.

 

[BeeKay8]

Dear Micheal,

Having been stopped out so many times I don't like to put stops even the ones suggested by Sive. When I trade I normally follow the market and if the situation changes dramatically I then take the decision to close my trade. As I said this time I was so convinced nothing could go wrong and I opened a way to big position and left my computer to take care of my "real" day job. To my own regret it now seems. Need to be less sure and I would not have lost all that much. Also I'm not blaming anybody but myself for that loss. Another lesson learned.

Really interesting discussion at the moment. Thanks to Mjunkyard for the link and Micheal for the reference, will or have already check(ed) them out.

Have a great day.

How do you know how much you are risking per trade if you do not have a SL? How do you calculate R:R? How do you know if it is a good trade or not if you do not know SL and TP levels beforehand?

I think all traders should have a strict predetermined SL and TP levels because that way you will know the maximum you will lose, you can calculate the R:R to see if this is a risk you are willing to take. Traders should have a plan before they enter the trade and follow by it. Otherwise, if the market does not move in your favor, you might find that you keeping telling yourself "the thrust HAS to stop now!!! its gone up long enough!" and eventually the trade just gets out of hand. Once you get to that point, it is basically just hoping and WISHING that it will go in your favor because you did not follow strict guidelines prior to entering the trade.

Just my personal experience. I truly believe SL and TPs are essential to having successful trades.

Also, I believe on 4 hour TF we have confirmed DRPO "SELL".

 

[mjunkyard]

Hi Dear Sive and Everyone;
Could Sive or anyone else explain what our mentor Sive meant with the Yen in the weekly analysis?
I would love to know/understand the correlation.
Sincerely
Mjunkyard

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Dear Sive and Everyone;
Could Sive or anyone else explain what our mentor Sive meant with the Yen in the weekly analysis?
I would love to know/understand the correlation.
Sincerely
Mjunkyard

Hi Mjunkyard,
I've posted yen chart when talked about potential bullish scenario on EUR weekly time frame - they are quite opposite in terms of dollar strength.
Yesterday, I've taken a look at dollar index - also long-term chart. There you will find H&S as well, that looks much clear than on weekly EUR/USD. Still there is one problem with H&S on dollar index. It stands not after solid thrust and kind of in the middle of previous swing down, that fact does not add more points to it. Still, this is H&S...
The one conclusion that we can do in such circumstances is EUR/JPY can start to move without relation to USD. In this case both of them are possible. Situation is really interesting here - take a look at the chart.

 

[minimax]

I am bearish as long 1,3020 holds

Good trades to all !

 

[mjunkyard]

Hi Mjunkyard,
I've posted yen chart when talked about potential bullish scenario on EUR weekly time frame - they are quite opposite in terms of dollar strength.
Yesterday, I've taken a look at dollar index - also long-term chart. There you will find H&S as well, that looks much clear than on weekly EUR/USD. Still there is one problem with H&S on dollar index. It stands not after solid thrust and kind of in the middle of previous swing down, that fact does not add more points to it. Still, this is H&S...
The one conclusion that we can do in such circumstances is EUR/JPY can start to move without relation to USD. In this case both of them are possible. Situation is really interesting here - take a look at the chart.

Thanks a million! Sive.
Another tiny question if possible; Is there a reason that you never mention the 23.3 fib level?
Looking at the dollar now, it seems like it stopped at the 23.3 fib level.
Just asking to learn.
sincerely
Mjunkyard